ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

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cane5
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#661 Postby cane5 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:33 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:
cane5 wrote:
bob rulz wrote:When will it be time to consider funding new hurricane hunter planes?

Surely we can't keep using the same old planes forever. I expect we will continue to see increasing maintenance issues as the years go on, especially if we continue to see such active seasons.


What a strange year in the tropics. Storm comes out of nowhere off Africa in early July. Fred would have been a louisiana or texas storm instead it roams just east of the Panhandle. Henri if anything would have been a Carolina storm in normal seasons. Yet the superstorms don’t even begin until labor Day and too often South Florida often escapes disaster. I have this eerie feeling that ain’t gonna happen this season.

The late october storms are always the scariest imo if waters stay warm


I can’t remember a labor day where there was’nt a Hurricane tracking at our doorstep. Maybe Wilma was a October storm and that made a crazy u turn back and hit us up our ass.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#662 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:36 pm

Winds are quite weak on the NW quadrant. Great news for me, because that’s the part I’ll be going through this time tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#663 Postby SecondBreakfast » Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SecondBreakfast wrote:All prepped, got my lanterns and snacks and ready to go. I really hope the surge ends up on the lower end for all. Very concerned about the Peconic Bay. The shellfish industry has been having an awful time the last few seasons, and Greenport is very vulnerable. Local storm chasers are flocking to Montauk.

Looks like I’ll be getting the rain side, should be good for my veggies but hopefully the tree in front of my house stays put. It’s a honey locust so it will drop branches but taproot is deep and I’m hoping it does it’s job.


Where are you? The rain side will be to the west of the track once it moves inland.


Western Nassau County. I’m miles away from either shore so no risk of surge for me.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#664 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:00 pm

Based on recon fixes, Henri is running just over half a degree east of forecast.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#665 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:07 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:Based on recon fixes, Henri is running just over half a degree east of forecast.


5pm 71.4W
8pm 71.0W

5pm track never went E of 71.4 till landfall. Unless Henri adjusts could be another E shift at 11pm.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#666 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:18 pm

saved loop
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#667 Postby drezee » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:35 pm

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#668 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:40 pm

gonna have to almost start going WNW and not the projected NW/NNW if it was to hit NYC now, looks like it might end up being closer to the Cape at this point than CT/RI
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#669 Postby lilac » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:46 pm

It's pouring where I am around Islip on LI right now.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#670 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:49 pm

The NOAA plane is about to go back in the E quadrant, and AF302 is taking off from the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#671 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:50 pm

Good convective burst on south and east eyewall
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#672 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:51 pm

It'll be moving inland east of Long Island. Too far east of the forecast now. TVCN (consensus) into western Narragansett Bay - Rhode Island at 4pm tomorrow. Sped up a good bit.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#673 Postby SecondBreakfast » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:53 pm

Flash flood warning already in Queens with the showers getting pushed in.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#674 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:57 pm

The eye is now saturated to 850mb
Best its been so far.
Could see some pretty good eyewall building tonight especially since the upper atmosphere is cooling off after sunset.

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#675 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:It'll be moving inland east of Long Island. Too far east of the forecast now. TVCN (consensus) into western Narragansett Bay - Rhode Island at 4pm tomorrow. Sped up a good bit.

Do you think the surge will be bad in Narragansett Bay?
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#676 Postby StormPyrate » Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:05 pm

Definitely looks to be off the official track to the east
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#677 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:05 pm

Interesting.
Warm core has improved today but cold pool has diminished.
Maybe we could see a quick flash of convection if the warm core can maintain itself and Henri transitions from the Gulf Stream to the cold water.
See how it goes.

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#678 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:06 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It'll be moving inland east of Long Island. Too far east of the forecast now. TVCN (consensus) into western Narragansett Bay - Rhode Island at 4pm tomorrow. Sped up a good bit.

Do you think the surge will be bad in Narragansett Bay?


I'm not that familiar with the bay. Here's a SLOSH display for a Cat 1 of average size moving into the bay. Henri will be below-average in size and may be a TS, so the surge will likely be below the values on the graphic. 2-3 ft doesn't look so bad. I'm thinking it may move east of Narragansett Bay, though. The way it's tracking east of the forecast, it may miss the bay to the east. Core looks terrible on satellite, by the way.

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#679 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:It'll be moving inland east of Long Island. Too far east of the forecast now. TVCN (consensus) into western Narragansett Bay - Rhode Island at 4pm tomorrow. Sped up a good bit.


Nice!!! Glad to see that NY dodged the bullet! Perhaps it will move even further east and avoid the USA all-together, or maybe just clip Rhode Island
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Hurricane - Discussion

#680 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:09 pm

Henri is finally acting like it’s over 30C waters. It was behaving more like 26C than thirty today
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