ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Tower firing just NE of Kermit's fix.
Looks like MLC getting closer to the LLC.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wow henri look at you. Came from a nontropical system to become what looks like a full fledged tropical storm in the Caribbean.

[Nasdaq]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1429086703449411589

[hohnywx]

TWC reporting Henri is now a hurricane. 75 MPH winds, 991 mb, moving NNE at 14 MPH.

[edu2703]

...HENRI IS NOW A HURRICANE...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 72.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hurricane Henri

8-3-1

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1429071085350395906

[aspen]

Looks like I’ll be spared from Henri’s strongest winds. Henri will pass to the east of my location, so I’ll be getting the weaker west side of the storm. Models are suggesting 2-4 inches of rain, and the ground is already rather saturated from the remnants of Fred — not that much, but it won’t be able to hold the additional rain from Henri.

The 11am discussion seems rather aggressive with the potential for Henri to strengthen even more. They mention how the GFS and HWRF indicate Henri’s pressure could drop by as much as 15+ mb between now and early Sunday while it’s still over the Gulf Stream. If it does have a small phase of rapid intensification — getting up to an 80-85 kt C1/2 and wrapping more of the strongest winds around the whole center — then I’m screwed.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Henri
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUBabTsQpso

[Woofde]

Henri still has ample time for strengthening. It's structure isn't conducive to rapid intensification, but it still has another 15 ish hours over warm waters. A strong Cat 1 peak seems reasonable.

[wxman57]

The NHC didn't mention it, but they shifted their track about 25 miles east on Long Island. It now perfectly matches consensus (TVCN).

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1429093941576613894

[chaser1]

In spite of NHC's disco regarding Henri's improved organization, I think it's appearance looks that of a sheared T.S. Still though, if today's small window truly allows some deepening as forecast then this storm is in a position to impact a fairly rare surge impact to the New England region. It looked to me a couple days ago that Long Island appeared a likely landfall point but I'm thinking that with Henri being so "right-sided", that the area at greatest risk for storm surge inundation looks like it could be the Narragansett Sound area. One thing for sure, expect a good deal of downed trees and electrical outages from this storm.

[hohnywx]

The NHC didn't mention it, but they shifted their track about 25 miles east on Long Island. It now perfectly matches consensus (TVCN).

Yes, they did - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1442.shtml:

The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and very near the best-performing models, the consensus aids.

[chaser1]

Looks like I’ll be spared from Henri’s strongest winds. Henri will pass to the east of my location, so I’ll be getting the weaker west side of the storm. Models are suggesting 2-4 inches of rain, and the ground is already rather saturated from the remnants of Fred — not that much, but it won’t be able to hold the additional rain from Henri.

The 11am discussion seems rather aggressive with the potential for Henri to strengthen even more. They mention how the GFS and HWRF indicate Henri’s pressure could drop by as much as 15+ mb between now and early Sunday while it’s still over the Gulf Stream. If it does have a small phase of rapid intensification — getting up to an 80-85 kt C1/2 and wrapping more of the strongest winds around the whole center — then I’m screwed.

Get that video camera (or cell phone) out

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My main concern is that we see a deepening followed by an expansion in wind field. That'll seriously increase the surge potential. Doubt Henri makes beyond 70 knots IMHO.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/Q3V4fIBuhZA[/youtube]

[mitchell]

His post is based on a surge model that takes in account wind direction piling water up in the sound and the tidal phases of the moon. An interesting take but seems like a worst case scenario to me. Hopefully it doesn't come to pass

Moon phase (astronomical) tide is NOT a component of storm surge. Storm surge is the additional rise in water level due to storm forcing above and beyond the astronomical tide.

[weathaguyry]

Looks like I have probably dodged the bulk of at least wind and surge impacts farther west on Long Island. Rain still looks to be an issue as well as surge being funneled into the Long Island Sound. However for coastal areas in Southern Nassau and Queens, surge looks to be fairly minimal which is great news! The population density increases dramatically near the Nassau/Suffolk County border, so every subtle east shift places majority of impacts over less populated areas.

[pgoss11]

The NHC didn't mention it, but they shifted their track about 25 miles east on Long Island. It now perfectly matches consensus (TVCN).

Do you project any more shifts in the track DT?