ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[Chris90]

NOAA is out in the storm right now, and AF is headed out there currently as well. So far NOAA has found a lowest pressure of 992.4mb extrapolated. 57kt SFMR so far, although associated flight level winds lower. Rain rate was only 14mm/hr though and Henri was already at that intensity, so it seems valid. We’ll have to see if they find evidence for the hurricane upgrade.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Looks like the warm core took a little beating since I last posted the AMSU thermal analysis.
On the other hand the cold pocket has deepened.
Need some strong convection to heat up the core.

[NDG]

MLC and LLC still look somewhat displaced but not as much as yesterday, at least from 4 hrs ago.

[Kohlecane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/J0cRNdBj/last24hrs.gif [/url]

Watching that was like sitting at a stop sign waiting to turn into traffic, then saying screw it and flooring it.

[xironman]

Could be ready to go today

[Kohlecane]

Good timing for Recon to be in there if that Microwave is showing what it is

[GCANE]

The cooling of the core has reduced lapse rate and subsequently rain rate has diminished

happiness is a journey not a destination poem

[GCANE]

Center estimate from the ARCHER algo
Est Vmax - 60 knts

i love you my angel

[GCANE]

Feeding off a ridge of 4000 CAPE air coming off the Gulf Stream

[GCANE]

Latest GFS has the ULL weakening somewhat from the previous forecast.
Nudging Henri's forecast track back east a bit.




how to screenshot on windows

[Chris90]

Latest GFS has the ULL weakening somewhat from the previous forecast.
Nudging Henri's forecast track back east a bit.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3x978JVh/G1.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/pLVb6MT6/gfs-uv250-neus-7.png [/url]how to screenshot on windows

Just a heads up, but your posts seem to be attaching extra links to the images you’re posting. A couple of your previous posts this morning had links to poems, and I thought “Hey, I guess he’s sneaking in poems he likes to his posts, that’s cool” but this post has a link to directions on how to screenshot for Windows and that doesn’t seem like you meant to do it.

[Airboy]

Looks like the pressure is maybe around 992mb from recon.

[GCANE]

Looks like recon will tag it about 992mb, slightly east of forecast track.
Good thing for NYC.

[GCANE]

Latest GFS has the ULL weakening somewhat from the previous forecast.
Nudging Henri's forecast track back east a bit.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3x978JVh/G1.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/pLVb6MT6/gfs-uv250-neus-7.png [/url]how to screenshot on windows

Just a heads up, but your posts seem to be attaching extra links to the images you’re posting. A couple of your previous posts this morning had links to poems, and I thought “Hey, I guess he’s sneaking in poems he likes to his posts, that’s cool” but this post has a link to directions on how to screenshot for Windows and that doesn’t seem like you meant to do it.

Those links are auto generated from the image-hosting site I am using. It only happens when I link an image's URL directly. Sorry if this may be of offense.

[NDG]

AF Recon

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1429045602470465539

[Chris90]

Latest GFS has the ULL weakening somewhat from the previous forecast.
Nudging Henri's forecast track back east a bit.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3x978JVh/G1.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/pLVb6MT6/gfs-uv250-neus-7.png [/url]how to screenshot on windows

Just a heads up, but your posts seem to be attaching extra links to the images you’re posting. A couple of your previous posts this morning had links to poems, and I thought “Hey, I guess he’s sneaking in poems he likes to his posts, that’s cool” but this post has a link to directions on how to screenshot for Windows and that doesn’t seem like you meant to do it.

Those links are auto generated from the image-hosting site I am using. It only happens when I link an image's URL directly. Sorry if this may be of offense.

Oh, no no, I wasn’t offended, I just didn’t know if you were aware your images had tag-a-long links, so I wanted to give you a heads up.

Anyways, back to Henri. Anyone have guesses for peak intensity? I’m thinking 85-90kts.

[aspen]

The center looks a bit more organized this morning than last night. The range of minimum pressures have contracted significantly, suggesting the vortexes are much closer to being stacked. However, the northern side is still lacking in winds and convection. Henri has like 24 hours left over 28-30C waters, so strengthening is likely, but this structure does not favor RI.

[xironman]

Starting to stack now, next few hours will tell if he can take off.

G. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20° to 200° (NNE to SSW)
G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles
G. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles