ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT22 KNES 201759
TCSNTL

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 20/1730Z

C. 20.6N

D. 94.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 10/10 WHITE BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.0. THE
24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. MET AND PT ARE UNDEFINED DUE TO SYSTEM
BEING OVER LAND 24 HRS AGO. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

??????

[cycloneye]

TXNT22 KNES 201759
TCSNTL

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 20/1730Z

C. 20.6N

D. 94.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 10/10 WHITE BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.0. THE
24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. MET AND PT ARE UNDEFINED DUE TO SYSTEM
BEING OVER LAND 24 HRS AGO. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

??????

What? That has to be 5.0.

[Yellow Evan]

When did use of W to determine banding ever become part of the Dvorak technique?

[SconnieCane]

I'm checking out Google Maps for population centers that might be impacted. Looks like landfall of the core will split the difference between Tampico and Veracruz, which are the only two major coastal cities. It'll probably be north of Jose Cardel, too, and south of Túxpam de Rodríguez Cano. It'll probably come in in that area where Mexican Federal 180 hugs the coast. Sparsely populated, but a lot of little villages along there with a lot of structures not exactly solidly built even against a Cat. 1 (and that's assuming it doesn't dramatically accelerate its intensification from here on).

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[tolakram]

sandwich combined loop https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Yucatan-sandwich-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[aspen]

TXNT22 KNES 201759
TCSNTL

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 20/1730Z

C. 20.6N

D. 94.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 10/10 WHITE BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.0. THE
24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. MET AND PT ARE UNDEFINED DUE TO SYSTEM
BEING OVER LAND 24 HRS AGO. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

??????

Yes, Grace is clearly a 4.0, less intense than what recon recorded despite a significant increase in organized convection. That makes perfect sense!

[grapealcoholic]

We're witnessing the absolute peak of what's possible thermodynamically. Strong cat 4 incoming

[Iceresistance]

What? That has to be 5.0.

When is the Next Recon? The CDO is EXPLODING!

[cycloneye]

saved radar loop
https://i.imgur.com/s6u7KrC.gif

Do you have the link of the radar?

[cycloneye]

What? That has to be 5.0.

When is the Next Recon? The CDO is EXPLODING!

4:45 PM departs.

[aspen]

What? That has to be 5.0.

When is the Next Recon? The CDO is EXPLODING!

4:45 PM departs.

It’ll probably be a Cat 2 by then. The CDO just keeps getting better and better, and with 7-10 hours left before landfall, I think the odds are high of a Cat 3 landfall — essentially Karl 2.0.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop
https://i.imgur.com/s6u7KrC.gif

Do you have the link of the radar?

I do, but I'm concerned about overloading the site as it's slow to load as is.

[CrazyC83]

When is the Next Recon? The CDO is EXPLODING!

4:45 PM departs.

It’ll probably be a Cat 2 by then. The CDO just keeps getting better and better, and with 7-10 hours left before landfall, I think the odds are high of a Cat 3 landfall — essentially Karl 2.0.

I'd be thinking it is a cat 2 now. Recon might find a major hurricane if this keeps up?

[Hammy]

What? That has to be 5.0.

When is the Next Recon? The CDO is EXPLODING!

4:45 PM departs.

Will it arrive before landfall?

[cycloneye]

When is the Next Recon? The CDO is EXPLODING!

4:45 PM departs.

Will it arrive before landfall?

It will be a close call.

[galaxy401]

4:45 PM departs.

Will it arrive before landfall?

It will be a close call.

Hopefully it will. Judging by the last advisories, Grace is moving a little slower.

[aspen]

4:45 PM departs.

Will it arrive before landfall?

It will be a close call.

Seems like it probably will. The 11am advisory called for Grace to still be over water by 8pm EST. If the plane is taking off from Louisiana, it’ll take an hour and a half at most to reach Grace.

[kevin]

I decide to go away for 2 hours and when I get back Grace has exploded. Seems like indeed all it needed to do was take care of its core and wind structure and then it was off to the races. Tbh this already looks like a cat 2 to me right now. A high-end cat 2 is most likely by the time recon arrives (as NHC also stated in their guidance), but I wouldn't be surprised if Grace still manages to reach MH intensity.

[tolakram]

Sandwich saved loop as the visible is just a blob of white at the moment. The bubble is new convection firing and spreading out.