ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

Unless I'm mistaken, looks like the dry slot is already getting mixed out.

Cloud tops not as cold as earlier, but IIRC that's normal for hurricanes trying to clear an eye.

[ElectricStorm]

Dry slot appears to be filling in pretty quickly now. Sticking with my 100kt landfall prediction

[HurricaneEnzo]

My landfall guess is 90kts/973mb

[aspen]

Of course AF302’s barometer is broken. This plane has been having problems all season.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like an eye may be trying to appear on visible. Convection in that spot it warming on IR with towers going up around it. I think we'll be seeing the eye clear out over the next couple hours.

[Chris90]

Appears the pressure is 981mb now. Intensification seems to have leveled off. Microwave images look as if it might have a larger eye which won’t intensify as fast as a smaller, more compact core. I’m guessing 976-77mb for landfall. Winds 75-80kts.

[Sciencerocks]

[HurricaneEnzo]

Nice blowup of overshooting tops around the COC. Might be ready to start another round of intensification.

[cycloneye]

The latest VDM has a 35 mile wide eye and open to the NW.

F. OPEN NW
G. C35

[ElectricStorm]

E eyewall drop has 64kt surface winds but much stronger winds just above the surface. Hopefully those don't mix down.

[Iceresistance]

980 MB with 6 knot winds at the Eye . . .

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 201715
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072021
A. 20/16:49:50Z
B. 20.55 deg N 094.44 deg W
C. 850 mb 1254 m
D. 980 mb
E. 070 deg 6 kt
F. OPEN W
G. C28
H. 64 kt
I. 083 deg 39 nm 16:37:30Z
J. 172 deg 89 kt
K. 072 deg 12 nm 16:46:00Z
L. 71 kt
M. 349 deg 17 nm 16:56:00Z
N. 094 deg 89 kt
O. 349 deg 18 nm 16:56:30Z
P. 16 C / 1526 m
Q. 22 C / 1525 m
R. NA / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 3.5 nm
U. AF303 1807A GRACE OB 28
MAX FL WIND 89 KT 072 / 12 NM 16:46:00Z

[aspen]

The LLC is now smack in the middle of a CDO with <-75C cloud tops. Recon confirms the eye is still open, but has shrunk from 32 to 28 nautical miles between passes, and the central pressure appears to be 979 mbar. Looks like recon is heading out now. I’ll guess the next flight finds an 80-85 kt Cat 1/2 with a pressure in the mid 970s.

[kevin]

The LLC is now smack in the middle of a CDO with <-75C cloud tops. Recon confirms the eye is still open, but has shrunk from 32 to 28 nautical miles between passes, and the central pressure appears to be 979 mbar. Looks like recon is heading out now. I’ll guess the next flight finds an 80-85 kt Cat 1/2 with a pressure in the mid 970s.

Do you know when the next recon will arrive?

[kevin]

The new blowup seems to have vastly improved the storm's structure. Just 1 hour ago the SE 65 kt radius was 0 miles (so non-existent) and now it's almost symmetric: 25/20/20/25. I expect the next recon to find a significantly stronger system, if I had to guess an 85 - 90 kt cat 2.

[Yellow Evan]

Worthy of T5.0 via an embedded center pattern. I hope the NHC is willing to break rules here and raise the winds though after Karl and how weirdly uncorrelated its appearance was with the actual winds, they might not.

[aspen]

The LLC is now smack in the middle of a CDO with <-75C cloud tops. Recon confirms the eye is still open, but has shrunk from 32 to 28 nautical miles between passes, and the central pressure appears to be 979 mbar. Looks like recon is heading out now. I’ll guess the next flight finds an 80-85 kt Cat 1/2 with a pressure in the mid 970s.

Do you know when the next recon will arrive?

No, but based on the recon timings of the last few days, I think the next one will head off at 4pm.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like Grace is exploding, you can see the shockwaves propagating out from the explosive development that is happening. This is a 2 hour loop using GOES-16 Red Band with CIRA Optical Depth overlaid.

Source - https://col.st/Rkzor

[aspen]

RIP Grace’s floater privileges. 5-minute imagery will have to do.

[IcyTundra]

This will be the first major of the year looks like nothing will stop it from making a run at cat 3 status.