ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

One bit of good news is that Henri is not following the strongest guidance thus far. According to the strongest EPS members, Henri should have been moving WSW by now, yet it is moving WNW. While landfall on New England is now becoming quite likely, it is not likely to occur farther west than the vicinity of Newport, RI, and is not likely to be stronger than a high-end tropical storm at landfall. The members that show Henri moving WNW during the current timeframe all show Henri peaking as a low-end hurricane and then making landfall as a strong tropical storm. Conversely, the members that show Henri moving WSW as of now indicate a stronger peak and a landfall farther west on Long Island, NY.

[hohnywx]

Watches have been hoisted. Let the preps begin in earnest.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the south shore of Long
Island from East Rockaway Inlet eastward to Montauk, the north
shore of Long Island from Kings Point eastward to Montauk, and from
Kings Point eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including
Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Long Island from Fire Island
Inlet eastward and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward. A
Hurricane Watch has also been issued from New Haven, Connecticut,
eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket,
Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Fire Island Inlet to
East Rockaway Inlet, west of Port Jefferson Harbor, and west of New
Haven.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Kings Point New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

[kevin]

NHC now explicitly showing a hurricane landfall. Stay safe everyone in the area and make sure you're prepped.

[Kohlecane]

NHC now explicitly showing a hurricane landfall. Stay safe everyone in the area and make sure you're prepped.

https://i.imgur.com/ndcHKy5.png

maybe 29.9 or 30N, I get it's only .2 off but everything matters with this storm, recon speed up haha

[Chemmers]

Unfortunately henri is looking very impressive this morning, can see eye lash clouds coming out from it now, a good sign of it strengthing, will be very interesting what the recon finds

[wxman57]

Better check the microwave. Center is detached to the north.

[aspen]

Better check the microwave. Center is detached to the north.

http://wxman57.com/images/microwave.JPG

Looks more offset than yesterday, but the MLC also looks more potent. Could the LLC be dragged back south under the strong MLC when shear drops later today? Or would the MLC be the one pulled north?

[AlphaToOmega]

DHMO (dihydrogen monoxide) hazards

[wxman57]

Better check the microwave. Center is detached to the north.

http://wxman57.com/images/microwave.JPG

Looks more offset than yesterday, but the MLC also looks more potent. Could the LLC be dragged back south under the strong MLC when shear drops later today? Or would the MLC be the one pulled north?

I'm sure it will recover when the shear drops off late this afternoon or this evening.

[wxman57]

DHMO (dihydrogen monoxide) hazards
https://i.postimg.cc/VNxpqzYr/092851-peak-surge.png

Looks like a surge map, to me.

[weathaguyry]

Recon just heading in now, so we’ll see if Henri is deepening as it moves away from the shear. I’m currently at college in Albany (majoring in Atmospheric Science ). If a W/WNW motion is still seen by recon this morning I may hop on a train back to Long Island for the weekend to help out my family with the storm.

[GCANE]

Seeing a significant shift in GFS forecast this morning on approach to New England.
Previously Henri was influenced by an ULL to its west.
That ULL has shifted south on the latest run.
Now looks like Henri will be under a ULH.
Also, CAPE & TPW entrainment is much higher on the latest run when Henri is in the region of 35N.

[aspen]

Pressure looks to be around 998-999mb. Due to MLC/LLC offset from the shear, the center doesn’t look as good as yesterday, as implied by that microwave pass wxman posted.

[GCANE]

Rain rate at the top of the scale

[Kohlecane]

Floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[GCANE]

Seeing a big shift in the flow pattern of TPW air.
Henri is quickly pulling in High TPW air from across the south CONUS, the eastern Seaboard, and the Gulf Stream.
This is forecasted to increase.

[NDG]

Recon shows Henri's strongest winds are on the southern quadrant, evindence that it is still being affected by northerly shear this morning.

[hipshot]

Was the ULL just north of Henri forecast to be there?

https://i.imgur.com/B2xWsmS.gif

Check out Levi's latest, he spends a lot of time on that low and a high pressure area moving across the area to the north as well.

[GCANE]

Seeing a significant shift in GFS forecast this morning on approach to New England.
Previously Henri was influenced by an ULL to its west.
That ULL has shifted south on the latest run.
Now looks like Henri will be under a ULH.
Also, CAPE & TPW entrainment is much higher on the latest run when Henri is in the region of 35N.

Forgot to mention that the shift of the ULL to the south has now put Long Island in the cross hairs.
Looks like it may be stronger than previously thought due to it now being under the ULH and the stronger high moisture infeed on its trek north.

[BobHarlem]

First recon pass has the center is further south than the 8am position by about .2 degrees, also 70 mph winds