ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#301 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:03 am

One bit of good news is that Henri is not following the strongest guidance thus far. According to the strongest EPS members, Henri should have been moving WSW by now, yet it is moving WNW. While landfall on New England is now becoming quite likely, it is not likely to occur farther west than the vicinity of Newport, RI, and is not likely to be stronger than a high-end tropical storm at landfall. The members that show Henri moving WNW during the current timeframe all show Henri peaking as a low-end hurricane and then making landfall as a strong tropical storm. Conversely, the members that show Henri moving WSW as of now indicate a stronger peak and a landfall farther west on Long Island, NY.
1 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

hohnywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 508
Age: 34
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:34 pm
Location: Hastings-on-Hudson, NY

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#302 Postby hohnywx » Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:15 am

Watches have been hoisted. Let the preps begin in earnest.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the south shore of Long
Island from East Rockaway Inlet eastward to Montauk, the north
shore of Long Island from Kings Point eastward to Montauk, and from
Kings Point eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including
Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Long Island from Fire Island
Inlet eastward and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward. A
Hurricane Watch has also been issued from New Haven, Connecticut,
eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket,
Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Fire Island Inlet to
East Rockaway Inlet, west of Port Jefferson Harbor, and west of New
Haven.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Kings Point New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
2 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#303 Postby kevin » Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:21 am

NHC now explicitly showing a hurricane landfall. Stay safe everyone in the area and make sure you're prepped.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#304 Postby Kohlecane » Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:43 am

kevin wrote:NHC now explicitly showing a hurricane landfall. Stay safe everyone in the area and make sure you're prepped.

https://i.imgur.com/ndcHKy5.png

maybe 29.9 or 30N, I get it's only .2 off but everything matters with this storm, recon speed up haha
0 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18

Chemmers
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 220
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:16 am

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#305 Postby Chemmers » Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:19 am

Unfortunately henri is looking very impressive this morning, can see eye lash clouds coming out from it now, a good sign of it strengthing, will be very interesting what the recon finds
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#306 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:34 am

Better check the microwave. Center is detached to the north.

Image
6 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#307 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:46 am

wxman57 wrote:Better check the microwave. Center is detached to the north.

http://wxman57.com/images/microwave.JPG

Looks more offset than yesterday, but the MLC also looks more potent. Could the LLC be dragged back south under the strong MLC when shear drops later today? Or would the MLC be the one pulled north?
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#308 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:57 am

DHMO (dihydrogen monoxide) hazards
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#309 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:03 am

aspen wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Better check the microwave. Center is detached to the north.

http://wxman57.com/images/microwave.JPG

Looks more offset than yesterday, but the MLC also looks more potent. Could the LLC be dragged back south under the strong MLC when shear drops later today? Or would the MLC be the one pulled north?


I'm sure it will recover when the shear drops off late this afternoon or this evening.
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#310 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:04 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:DHMO (dihydrogen monoxide) hazards
https://i.postimg.cc/VNxpqzYr/092851-peak-surge.png


Looks like a surge map, to me.
1 likes   

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#311 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:40 am

Recon just heading in now, so we’ll see if Henri is deepening as it moves away from the shear. I’m currently at college in Albany (majoring in Atmospheric Science :D). If a W/WNW motion is still seen by recon this morning I may hop on a train back to Long Island for the weekend to help out my family with the storm.
3 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#312 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:41 am

Seeing a significant shift in GFS forecast this morning on approach to New England.
Previously Henri was influenced by an ULL to its west.
That ULL has shifted south on the latest run.
Now looks like Henri will be under a ULH.
Also, CAPE & TPW entrainment is much higher on the latest run when Henri is in the region of 35N.
2 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#313 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:46 am

Pressure looks to be around 998-999mb. Due to MLC/LLC offset from the shear, the center doesn’t look as good as yesterday, as implied by that microwave pass wxman posted.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#314 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:47 am

Rain rate at the top of the scale

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#315 Postby Kohlecane » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:48 am

0 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#316 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:55 am

Seeing a big shift in the flow pattern of TPW air.
Henri is quickly pulling in High TPW air from across the south CONUS, the eastern Seaboard, and the Gulf Stream.
This is forecasted to increase.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#317 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:57 am

Recon shows Henri's strongest winds are on the southern quadrant, evindence that it is still being affected by northerly shear this morning.
0 likes   

hipshot
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 591
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#318 Postby hipshot » Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:59 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Was the ULL just north of Henri forecast to be there?

https://i.imgur.com/B2xWsmS.gif

Check out Levi's latest, he spends a lot of time on that low and a high pressure area moving across the area to the north as well.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#319 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:06 am

GCANE wrote:Seeing a significant shift in GFS forecast this morning on approach to New England.
Previously Henri was influenced by an ULL to its west.
That ULL has shifted south on the latest run.
Now looks like Henri will be under a ULH.
Also, CAPE & TPW entrainment is much higher on the latest run when Henri is in the region of 35N.


Forgot to mention that the shift of the ULL to the south has now put Long Island in the cross hairs.
Looks like it may be stronger than previously thought due to it now being under the ULH and the stronger high moisture infeed on its trek north.
2 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2106
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#320 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:12 am

First recon pass has the center is further south than the 8am position by about .2 degrees, also 70 mph winds
0 likes   


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests