ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GRACE IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 91.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

AF eye drop supports 995mb which agrees with NHC

[ElectricStorm]

NOAA plane extrap 992.5mb. FL winds over 60kts now

[NDG]

Grace almost back to a hurricane already.
Merida got hit pretty good with lots of downed trees.

[ElectricStorm]

NOAA eye drop supports 993mb. Pressure dropping

[aspen]

If Grace is doing this well after 12 hours over the Yucatán and a very ragged IR structure, then oh boy, it could go nuts tomorrow once convection rebuilds.

Recon found 60 kt SFMR and FL winds, although SFMR is probably contaminated by the shallow water depth. The NHC will probably go with 55 kt just to be safe, unless winds increase in the next few hours.

[ElectricStorm]

998mb extrap on AF plane but I think that's too high considering all the drops and other center fixes from both planes are in the 993-995 range.

[cycloneye]

71 kts, and two readings of 73kts.

005430 2108N 09100W 8433 01488 0013 +169 +062 131070 071 051 004 00
005500 2109N 09059W 8428 01497 0026 +156 +059 132072 073 050 008 00
005530 2110N 09058W 8431 01497 0037 +142 +056 135070 073 050 008 00

[ElectricStorm]

FL winds over 70kts now

[Stormybajan]

Looks like 73 knot flight level winds . Thankfully, surface winds are still around 60-65 mph but those flight level winds are a bit of a surprise to me

[ElectricStorm]

07L GRACE 210820 0000 20.8N 91.0W ATL 55 994

[TallyTracker]

71 kts, and two readings of 73kts.

005430 2108N 09100W 8433 01488 0013 +169 +062 131070 071 051 004 00
005500 2109N 09059W 8428 01497 0026 +156 +059 132072 073 050 008 00
005530 2110N 09058W 8431 01497 0037 +142 +056 135070 073 050 008 00

With flight level winds that high, it’s only a matter of time until they work down to the surface. I expect Grace to be a hurricane when I wake up in the morning.

[Teban54]

Grace is doing surprisingly well considering it just came out of land and has minimal convection. I'm afraid once deep convection returns the ceiling will be high.

[toad strangler]

Grace is doing surprisingly well considering it just came out of land and has minimal convection. I'm afraid once deep convection returns the ceiling will be high.

There isn't any topographical heights in the way of Grace's pass over the Yucatan that would make it a surprise that she has held her own quite well. Especially so in that she is moving pretty damn briskly.

[Sciencerocks]

Convection firing!!!

[ElectricStorm]

At least Grace is moving along pretty quickly so it will reach land faster. Which is good since it's already firing convection...

[CrazyC83]

With those readings, I'd go with 60 kt for the intensity.

[ElectricStorm]

Convection firing west of the center now. A couple more hours to build convection and it should be off to the races

[cheezyWXguy]

Getting its act together quickly. One major difference from before the Yucatán landfall is that there are no huge bands stealing energy from the core.