ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
NOAA2 Eye Dropsonde #2, 991 MB with 33 knots of wind, probably closer to 990-988 MB
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Yellow Evan
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
Needs to become more CDO dominant if this wants to avoid dry air issues.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
Yellow Evan wrote:Needs to become more CDO dominant if this wants to avoid dry air issues.
Looks like it’s actually on its way now. These seem to be the first bursts in the core that actually have some staying power. We’ll see if this continues
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
AF304 missed the Eye Dropsonde . . . Only managed to get the NW & SE eyewalls . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
Convection is exploding in the eye wall and is wrapping around.
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AlphaToOmega
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
Lots of nice hot towers firing up. Dropsondes in the eye and SE eyewall support an intensity of 70kt/989mb for 8pm. I expect the pressure to start dropping again with all of that new convection.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
AlphaToOmega wrote:Recon is finding 75-knot winds in Grace.
I'm not seeing that?
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:Recon is finding 75-knot winds in Grace.
I'm not seeing that?
I did see Recon had winds up to 70 knots, but let's wait on the next passes . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
Big hot tower rotating around eye, forming strong eyewall.
Clearly see this on IR
Chances are 70 to 100% RI by DMAX
Clearly see this on IR
Chances are 70 to 100% RI by DMAX
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Big hot tower rotating around eye, forming strong eyewall.
Clearly see this on IR
Chances are 70 to 100% RI by DMAX
The Southern end has the strong Eyewall with the high cloud tops
She's going to have a compact core like Delta 2020 . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
AlphaToOmega wrote:Recon is finding 75-knot winds in Grace.
Those were FL winds. The maximum surface-level winds supported by SFMR and dropsondes are 70 kt. But with deep convection wrapping around the compact eye, those higher FL winds will likely start translating down.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:AF304 missed the Eye Dropsonde . . . Only managed to get the NW & SE eyewalls . . .
Seems like it was a bit late to reporting, but a dropsonde did actually come in from the AF plane... 986! Surprised me to see it that low, since extrap didn't look too different from the NOAA plane. Curious what the next few passes show.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
ThetaE wrote:Iceresistance wrote:AF304 missed the Eye Dropsonde . . . Only managed to get the NW & SE eyewalls . . .
Seems like it was a bit late to reporting, but a dropsonde did actually come in from the AF plane... 986! Surprised me to see it that low, since extrap didn't look too different from the NOAA plane. Curious what the next few passes show.
https://i.imgur.com/Pg1mHX0.png
If you look closer at the Pressure data, it's actually 990 MB from that Dropsonde . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:ThetaE wrote:Iceresistance wrote:AF304 missed the Eye Dropsonde . . . Only managed to get the NW & SE eyewalls . . .
Seems like it was a bit late to reporting, but a dropsonde did actually come in from the AF plane... 986! Surprised me to see it that low, since extrap didn't look too different from the NOAA plane. Curious what the next few passes show.
https://i.imgur.com/Pg1mHX0.png
If you look closer at the Pressure data, it's actually 990 MB from that Dropsonde . . .
Ah, you're right. Makes more sense.
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I'm a busy grad student, not a professional forecaster. Please refer to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts.
Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
Grace is much more symmetrical now with solid winds in the SW quadrant, earlier missions showed very weak winds there.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
Pass #3 for NOAA2 Recon plane, lowest Extrapolated Pressure is 988 MB
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
NHC looks to be right on with 85 mph landfall, I thought it might get to 100+ but seems unlikely now.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Hurricane - Discussion
New lower Extrapolated pressure from NOAA2: 987.9 MB
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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