ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

saved loop

[cycloneye]

VDM says is closed but eliptical.

F. CLOSED
G. E02/20/12

[Teban54]

Checking back in after a few hours... Funny how everyone was like "yeah this didn't strengthen that much, it's facing shear and strong PVS" with that 1001 pressure reading, the boom, 993.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT22 KNES 181209
TCSNTL

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 18/1130Z

C. 19.0N

D. 81.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN AN EMBEDDED CENTER
PATTERN DT OF 4.5. THE 0936Z SSMIS 91 GHZ REVEALS TIGHTENING AT THE MID
LEVELS FOR THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY THE 37 GHZ REVEALS THE
ACTIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC ON THE NE AND NW QUADRANTS. THE
24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING RESULTING MET AND PT TO BE 4.0. FT IS BASED
ON MET DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[cycloneye]

Getting up there.

071 044 024 00

[shansgonefishin]

Do we have any word or obs from the Cayman Islands?

Morning All, winds have picked up in the last 30 mins (I’m on the South coast), here’s a link to a local Weather Station, our Govt’s Radar is offline unfortunately…

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IBODDE1

[kevin]

Do we have any word or obs from the Cayman Islands?

Morning All, winds have picked up in the last 30 mins (I’m on the South coast), here’s a link to a local Weather Station, our Govt’s Radar is offline unfortunately…

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IBODDE1

Stay safe out there. Took a look at the local weather station and it dipped down to 995 mbar, so very much in line with the previous 993 mbar measurement at the center of Grace.

[aspen]

60 kt SFMR and 997.2 mbar extrapolated from the higher altitude NOAA plane.

[cycloneye]

SSD up to 4.0.

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 18/1130Z

C. 19.0N

D. 81.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN AN EMBEDDED CENTER
PATTERN DT OF 4.5. THE 0936Z SSMIS 91 GHZ REVEALS TIGHTENING AT THE MID
LEVELS FOR THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY THE 37 GHZ REVEALS THE
ACTIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC ON THE NE AND NW QUADRANTS. THE
24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING RESULTING MET AND PT TO BE 4.0. FT IS BASED
ON MET DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[ElectricStorm]

07L GRACE 210818 1200 19.1N 81.4W ATL 60 993

[aspen]

Looks to be on the northern edge of the cone. If this track continues, Grace’s time over the Yucatán will be significantly reduced, and it would go over a relatively flat part of the peninsula.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Grace's structure reminds me of TS Iota right before its rapid intensification episode.

Classic "shrimp" look to it.

[GCANE]

A 20x12nm eye is relatively small.
IMHO about a 50% chance this goes pinhole.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks to be on the northern edge of the cone. If this track continues, Grace’s time over the Yucatán will be significantly reduced, and it would go over a relatively flat part of the peninsula.

Definitely could also mean it can easily get its act together and intensify theoretically in the very favorable Bay of Campeche.

[kevin]

Recon made a 61 kt SFMR reading, looks like winds are steadily increasing. Grace is already close to hurricane strength and I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches it within the next 2 hours.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon showing flight level winds up to 72 knots. Grace is very, very close to hurricane status.

[aspen]

No significant pressure change this pass, and the SW quadrant remains weak. However, this center fix continues Grace’s northern departure from the NHC forecast track.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The wind minimum and MSLP min appear better aligned than they were last night, where the wind minimum was displaced some. This indicates shear has abated somewhat as the MLC and LLC become better stacked for intensification.

[cheezyWXguy]

I suspect we may see a leveling off of intensity for a bit while grace gets it’s core together. It’s common to see dry air intrusions while storms at this phase try to carve out an eye, and I suspect that will happen here.

[GCANE]

Very weak wind field on the WSW side of the CoC. Pretty far out.