ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Good news: We finally have an interesting storm to pay attention too!
Bad news: This will more than likely bring devastation to Cancun, Cozumel, and either Tampico or Veracruz. Probably not to the likes of ‘07 Dean, but it’ll definitely be up there.
Quick question though. What’s the GEPS and should I even pay attention to it?

GEPS is the Canadian model ensembles.

[skyline385]

Wrong thread that's Henri

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hard to believe models went from something marginal into South Florida / Keys over the weekend to potentially something significant deep into the BoC /Mexico while basically clearing out most of the Florida posters from this thread. We could only imagine how many pages this thread would be racking up if Grace were a Florida or CONUS GOM threat the way Grace is looking this evening
https://i.postimg.cc/J7Sf9MsF/goes16-ir-07-L-202108172215.gif

That's how you know who is HARD CORE!

[ElectricStorm]

Maybe a little bit of dry air trying to sneak in there. We'll have to see how quickly it can fire off some more convection near the center. My guess is this won't be too much of an issue for it.

[Category5Kaiju]

Maybe a little bit of dry air trying to sneak in there. We'll have to see how quickly it can fire off some more convection near the center. My guess is this won't be too much of an issue for it.

Yeah I think whatever dry air that is (or if it even is due to dry air) is pretty much negligible in terms of where Grace seems to be headed tonight, maybe it's also DMIN, so let's watch what happens when DMAX arrives

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Haven't noticed too much of a pressure drop the last few passes. Grace appears to be holding steady for now (probably overcoming the shock of not interacting with a mountainous island for once in its life).

[Homie J]

VDM reports 16 nm eyewall open to the N and NW

[ElectricStorm]

Maybe a little bit of dry air trying to sneak in there. We'll have to see how quickly it can fire off some more convection near the center. My guess is this won't be too much of an issue for it.

Yeah I think whatever dry air that is (or if it even is due to dry air) is pretty much negligible in terms of where Grace seems to be headed tonight, maybe it's also DMIN, so let's watch what happens when DMAX arrives

Yeah looks like another tower just went up near the center.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the 4 center locations, this looks like it is gaining more latitude than forecast

[skyline385]

All the convection just went poof and its been stuck at the same pressure for 6 hours now.

And people then wonder why this thread is dead thinking its because it is not impacting Florida. This is just a disorganized mess of a storm which resembled a tropical wave until this morning and which has been doing nothing for the past week. No wonder everyone is tired of it...

[captainbarbossa19]

All the convection just went poof and its been stuck at the same pressure for 6 hours now.

And people then wonder why this thread is dead thinking its because it is not impacting Florida. This is just a disorganized mess of a storm which resembled a tropical wave until this morning and which has been doing nothing for the past week. No wonder everyone is tired of it...

This might look a whole lot different in the morning. And by that, I mean it could explode. Sometimes, storms look disorganized right until dawn and then DMAX does it's work.

[ElectricStorm]

Starting to wrap that convection around the center a bit more. A couple more hours and it should be ready for takeoff IMO

[ScottNAtlanta]

All the convection just went poof and its been stuck at the same pressure for 6 hours now.

And people then wonder why this thread is dead thinking its because it is not impacting Florida. This is just a disorganized mess of a storm which resembled a tropical wave until this morning and which has been doing nothing for the past week. No wonder everyone is tired of it...

This might look a whole lot different in the morning. And by that, I mean it could explode. Sometimes, storms look disorganized right until dawn and then DMAX does it's work.

It is just one big hot tower away in the right location and

[weeniepatrol]

All the convection just went poof and its been stuck at the same pressure for 6 hours now.

And people then wonder why this thread is dead thinking its because it is not impacting Florida. This is just a disorganized mess of a storm which resembled a tropical wave until this morning and which has been doing nothing for the past week. No wonder everyone is tired of it...

Got it. Grace is cancelled. Lock the thread, please

[ElectricStorm]

The last eye drop has 999mb with 14kt wind so that would be good for 998mb. Pressure might be starting to fall again

[Category5Kaiju]

I am pretty sure that it is just DMIN, but I explicitly remember Eta last year and how it at first looked very ragged, only for it to build a CDO and an eye quite rapidly.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

All the convection just went poof and its been stuck at the same pressure for 6 hours now.

And people then wonder why this thread is dead thinking its because it is not impacting Florida. This is just a disorganized mess of a storm which resembled a tropical wave until this morning and which has been doing nothing for the past week. No wonder everyone is tired of it...

Grace just spent days interacting with land. VDM reported a building eyewall. Structurally on satellite Grace looks better than ever, with spiral banding becoming more evident in all quadrants. Grace has leveled off for now in order to develop a structure down the road for further intensification. Not unusual nor is the storm a "disorganized mess".

[Teban54]

All the convection just went poof and its been stuck at the same pressure for 6 hours now.

And people then wonder why this thread is dead thinking its because it is not impacting Florida. This is just a disorganized mess of a storm which resembled a tropical wave until this morning and which has been doing nothing for the past week. No wonder everyone is tired of it...

I'm having a hard time believing I'm looking at the same storm as you are.

[ElectricStorm]

And just like that the eyewall is almost closed off