ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Homie J]

Dropsonde has it at 1002 MB

[OverlandHurricane]

Didn't Dean pull the same trick Gilbert did, go over Jamaica without batting an eye?

[GCANE]

Looking at the AMSU thermal profile and recon measured wind speeds, this could be relatively compact.

[cheezyWXguy]

As soon as that main feeder is off of jamaica, I expect a big blowup. Should be an interesting night.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nuno]

The question was what intensity is it now (when recon arrives). I gather some of you think it has strengthened over land?

I mean, the readings kind of match that assumption, no? It wasn't over land very long.

[galaxy401]

Going to be a very interesting 36 hours now. Is Grace going to fully capitalize on the very hot West Caribbean temperatures? Not much in the way now for her.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1427771196947509252






Upper level looks to be so good it deepened despite being over land

[supercane4867]

Didn't Dean pull the same trick Gilbert did, go over Jamaica without batting an eye?

Dean never made a direct landfall on Jamaica. The most recent example I can think of is Gustav, which danced around the island for days and we all know what happened thereafter in the Western Caribbean

[Category5Kaiju]

You can already see the very vigorous outflow and cyclonic spin, looks like Cancun and Cozumel are really going to have to prepare, Delta last year I am afraid is going to be nothing when compared to what Grace is about to do.

[Owasso]

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND THE CENTER OF
GRACE JUST WEST OF JAMAICA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Up to 60mph now.

[grapealcoholic]

1003 47kts

[Owasso]

[skyline385]

217 kts

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.postimg.cc/YqdVKd7G/image.png

What?

[Iceresistance]

https://i.postimg.cc/YqdVKd7G/image.png

Clearly they need a new one after this! Looks like the Wind Sensor malfunctioned!

[Iceresistance]

1002.4 MB Extrapolated, she's deepening . . .



And that weirdo dropsonde did accurately measure the pressure: 1001 MB

[ThetaE]

1002.4 MB Extrapolated, she's deepening . . .

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_AF302-1107A-GRACE_zoom.png

And that weirdo dropsonde did accurately measured the pressure: 1001 MB

Was wondering if that dropsonde's sfc measurement was trustworthy, but it seems reasonable enough. What stands out to me in this pass, and you can see it in the pic you posted, is that the wind field has quickly tightened on the NE side of the center. First pass by the AF plane showed very weak winds in the SE and NW quadrants until far from the center. Future intensification is dependent on how quickly Grace can recover from this broad windfield.

[psyclone]

If Grace strengthens significantly from here, which now appears possible if not probable, it will be yet another storm that struggled for a long time until it found a zone of favorability... a trend that we have seen many times in recent years near or during peak season. Climo poised to win yet again. And a double tap on Mexico is also a favored track in latter August.

[tolakram]