ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like Henri is on track to become a hurricane, and maybe a significant one too. Hopefully it avoids all land areas.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 64.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[tolakram]

saved loop

[aspen]

The NHC is now explicitly forecasting a Cat 1 Hurricane Henri in a few days. However, if current trends continue before shear picks back up again, it’ll likely become one much sooner.

[ColdMiser123]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1427585735008342022

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1427587625242841107

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1427591701208735746

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1427594245104414720

Great information, thanks for sharing. You can see this quite well in today's 12z EPS spread. All of the stronger members are farther west with the overall evolution of the track, with a few hits among these stronger members into southern New England.

Odds this gives significant impacts to the US is low. Still worth watching though if Henri continues to be stronger than expected, as that would imply a farther west track compared to what's currently expected.

[Stormybajan]

Outflow of Fred affecting Henri right now?

[Zonacane]

Henri's eye poking out

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to be taking in dry air, let’s see if it mixes out

[Sciencerocks]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I have some difficulty believing Henri will sit as a 60 knot tropical storm until Friday. IMO, hurricane tomorrow & Category 2/3 peak on its way OTS.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to be going into another strengthening phase, could be a hurricane by morning and Eastern New England to Atlantic Canada need to keep an eye out on this one, if one looks at the current GFS pattern it’s actually showing that straight north shot similar to hurricanes like Carol or 1938

[Hurricaneman]

Another thing I noticed is this is south of 30n

[IcyTundra]

A lot of people are writing this one off for an OTS track most likely this will stay away from New England and Atlantic Canada but the modeling trend is slowly inching this further west before it recurves.

[Kohlecane]

Looking better this morning than it did when I last looked at midnight. seems to be riding 30N westward, maybe the slightest WSW mvmt IMO

[JtSmarts]

From the latest disco:

I think it's worth noting that the
GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over
eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward
toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or
shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on
subsequent advisories.

Due to the increased uncertainty in the track forecast, interests
along the New England coast should monitor the progress of Henri.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I have some difficulty believing Henri will sit as a 60 knot tropical storm until Friday. IMO, hurricane tomorrow & Category 2/3 peak on its way OTS.

Gfs is showing landfall multiple times. 0z went west and 6z even farther west. a few models have also come around to a potential landfall scenario. too early to say yet but people need to keep an eye out on it. the stronger it gets the farther west it gets

[TheDreamTraveler]

If this strikes as a hurricane this would be the first hurricane to strike new england in 30 years since Bob in 1991. Last major was in the 1960s

There are many many people who have never experienced a hurricane there in their lives. They need to be aware and make sure they have a hurricane plan and what to do just in case this actually does get close enough and make landfall that strong.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[aspen]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/lcurf6L.gif

Looking far better than last night. This is probably close to becoming a hurricane; I remember multiple prior HWRF runs showed a 980s Cat 1 with a similar satellite appearance and no visible eye yet at this time.