ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

I don't really see anything holding this back from becoming a major, and maybe a pretty formidable one.

SSTs between 29-31°C, High Dewpoints, lower wind shear, & A nearby Upper-level Anticyclone . . .

[jaguars_22]

For a Texas landfall you would at least think one major model would show a change and now none of them do! Idk I think it will blow up in a few hours and start RI which could throw the models off a little but that’s a huge shift north for Texas to be back in to play!!

[aspen]

I don't really see anything holding this back from becoming a major, and maybe a pretty formidable one.

The only potential limitation I see is time between landfalls. It’ll have roughly 36-42 hours between now and the Yucatán landfall, and then 30-36 hours between that and the Veracruz landfall. It’ll also have to rebuild its core after the Yucatán. Still, with such a good starting point right now, 36-42 hours is a lot of time for something nasty to explode. I think Grace will reach her peak in the WCar and not the BoC.

That PVS has had negligible impact on Grace and will soon be eroded away, so shear probably won’t be an issue.

[SoupBone]

For a Texas landfall you would at least think one major model would show a change and now none of them do! Idk I think it will blow up in a few hours and start RI which could throw the models off a little but that’s a huge shift north for Texas to be back in to play!!

I've been pretty impressed at the GFS and yes, even the Euro within the 5 day window. Even the Canadian and others have performed well within 5 days for Grace.

[kevin]

I'm getting the same feeling that I had early on during Delta last year and I don't like it one bit. This could be a nasty one.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1427729583810486273

[Hammy]

Seems like Elsa really was a foreshadowing to how this particular track can aide in organizing a disorganized system. The physics here really is amazing given this looked a few days ago like it wouldn't last long.

[jaguars_22]

On the 500mb charts for each model I do see that the high retro grades back to the east once grace is in the Campeche. Question is does it feel the weakness? If it was a strong storm and misses the Yucatán than I would be worried in Texas!

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm getting the same feeling that I had early on during Delta last year and I don't like it one bit. This could be a nasty one.

As long as Grace is large enough and is able to clear an eye, a sudden but small increase in mid-level shear like what happened with Delta (that ultimately ruined the storm) would theoretically speaking be less likely to adversely affect a well-developed storm.

[ElectricStorm]

45kts/1003mb at newest advisory

[aspen]

45kts/1003mb at newest advisory

I’m surprised they still haven’t bumped it up to 50 kt as supported by recon.

[tailgater]

Mission 10 and 11 headed to Grace, anyone want to take a shot at what the first VDM will have. My guess
SLP 1008
Flight level max 75 mph
SFMR 55mph

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1427717528713895939

[Nimbus]

The city of Cozumel is on the western shore of the island and has survived plenty of Cat 1-2 hurricanes.
Jamaica has if anything tightened up Grace circulation and I wouldn't doubt there could be rapid intensification before reaching the Yucatan.
NHC hasn't said anything about the ridge migrating yet so the cone is the official cone.

[AtlanticWind]

I think the 36 hours over the Western Carribean is unfortunately plenty
of time for Grace to become a major. It will be interesting to see the structure
Wednesday morning, if it is what I am expecting things will be in place for an R.I.

[aspen]

Recon is once again finding 50-55 kt FL and SFMR winds. Grace is just begging to be upgraded.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/woodberrywx/status/1427753668758097921




Its frightening to think that we might actually have a storm that could take full advantage of this....

[storminabox]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1427717528713895939

I wonder why

[Category5Kaiju]

Hard to believe that since 2008 it had been 13 years until a season that featured formidable major hurricanes in the WCAR (with that season being last year) and now this year looks to be willing to follow 2020's footsteps in generating dangerous WCAR storms.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Mission 10 and 11 headed to Grace, anyone want to take a shot at what the first VDM will have. My guess
SLP 1008
Flight level max 75 mph
SFMR 55mph

I'm gonna say
SLP 999
FLW 75
SFMR 65