ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Popup thunderstorms firing over Cuba.
Moisture from them will rotate into the midlayers into Grace's forecasted track.
This will also help to erode the 355K PV streamer.
Chances getting better for further intensification of Grace.

[Iceresistance]

Oh boy, Grace has some nuclear grade SSTs in its path, especially in the western Gulf. The ceiling is very high depending on how the core fares following the interactions with Jamaica and the Yucutan Peninsula. As illustrated here, a track like the current NHC forecast will give it 36-42 hours maximum over water in both the WCar and BoC, but if it happens to go further north and through the channel...oh boy.
https://i.imgur.com/VqFpkIi.png

The MPI in Grace's path is some of the highest I've seen in the Gulf or basin overall.
https://i.imgur.com/ThshqWc.png

Well that's kind of troubling.

Grace has a very good chance of going on RI, VRI or ERI, the GoM is BOILING for sure!

[ElectricStorm]

Man the Yucatan can't catch a break these last couple of years. 3 hurricane landfalls late last year and now this. Ouch

[Chemmers]

Oh boy, Grace has some nuclear grade SSTs in its path, especially in the western Gulf. The ceiling is very high depending on how the core fares following the interactions with Jamaica and the Yucutan Peninsula. As illustrated here, a track like the current NHC forecast will give it 36-42 hours maximum over water in both the WCar and BoC, but if it happens to go further north and through the channel...oh boy.
https://i.imgur.com/VqFpkIi.png

The MPI in Grace's path is some of the highest I've seen in the Gulf or basin overall.
https://i.imgur.com/ThshqWc.png

I am not looking forward to September/October with the gulf being so warm, unfortunately I can see a Patricia like event in the gulf if there is the right environment, think she went over 32 to 33c water and a lot of the gulf already has water coming close to that, I am hoping I am wrong

Be safe everyone this year

[supercane4867]

That band north of center is starting to pop off some good convection, it looks like the shear out of the north may be starting to wind down. If it can maintain this tight circulation after passing Jamaica, my bet is that the intensity forecast before the Yucatán is too conservative.

Jamaica is not known to be a TC killer. Gilbert moved across the entire length of the island only to start RI as soon as the center emerged from the coast.

[storminabox]

That band north of center is starting to pop off some good convection, it looks like the shear out of the north may be starting to wind down. If it can maintain this tight circulation after passing Jamaica, my bet is that the intensity forecast before the Yucatán is too conservative.

Jamaica is not known to be a TC killer. Gilbert moved across the entire length of the island only to start RI as soon as the center emerged from the coast.

It almost seems like the same thing could happen here given the cyclones increasingly potent appearance

[cycloneye]

Elsa #2?

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1427705309892653063

[captainbarbossa19]

Elsa #2?

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1427705309892653063

IMO, Grace looks a lot more organized than Elsa.

[Iceresistance]

A LOT of lightning is occurring within Grace . . .

[MarioProtVI]

 https://twitter.com/doitfordale8/status/1427712314137059328

[Iceresistance]

:double: https://twitter.com/doitfordale8/status/1427712314137059328?s=21

Grace is having the Brown-Ocean effect! It is passing through Jamaica like it's nothing!

[cycloneye]

Another view of the microwave.

[wxman57]

Fortunately for the U.S., strong ridge building north of Grace will keep it well south of the U.S. Bad news for Mexico, though. High oceanic heat content, moving west blocked by a ridge - classic setup for strengthening.

[Iceresistance]

Another view of the microwave.

https://i.imgur.com/VEWF9Kf.jpg

The circle showing the core of Grace, clearly Jamaica is not going to be able to disrupt the circulation very much if at all.

[Iceresistance]

Fortunately for the U.S., strong ridge building north of Grace will keep it well south of the U.S. Bad news for Mexico, though. High oceanic heat content, moving west blocked by a ridge - classic setup for strengthening.

I'm viewing a good chance for RI for Grace, the SST in the Southern GoM are between 29-31°C! It's boiling!

There is a chance of the ridge failing to build in the USA & allow Grace to be closer to Texas, fortunately the odds are low. but I'm not taking that chance . . .

[AxaltaRacing24]

Grace is acquiring "that look" to it more and more by the hour. Combine this with the microwave imagery, and you can tell Grace is poised to take off once it leaves Jamaica.

[tolakram]

Lots of banding showing up, Grace looks to be improving fast.

saved loop

[Sciencerocks]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well organized. Bar looks pretty high here.

[ElectricStorm]

I don't really see anything holding this back from becoming a major, and maybe a pretty formidable one.