ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

So when's the next recon mission going out? It sure has been a while

These recon gaps with Grace are so unusual for the NHC, and VERY unhelpful when the system is already so difficult to forecast. However, I think they might be avoiding recon due to how close Grace is to the really tall mountains of the Haitian peninsula.

Probably had to do with focusing on Fred too, which is understandable. But it would be nice to see what's going on in there.

[cycloneye]

So when's the next recon mission going out? It sure has been a while

Departs al 10 PM.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74
A. 17/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0807A GRACE
C. 17/0200Z
D. 20.1N 72.8W
E. 17/0500Z TO 17/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[ElectricStorm]

So when's the next recon mission going out? It sure has been a while

Departs al 10 PM.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74
A. 17/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0807A GRACE
C. 17/0200Z
D. 20.1N 72.8W
E. 17/0500Z TO 17/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Ah thank you. Can't wait to see what they find. And to see how wrong ADT is (still has it a T4.0 )

[aspen]

So when's the next recon mission going out? It sure has been a while

Departs al 10 PM.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74
A. 17/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0807A GRACE
C. 17/0200Z
D. 20.1N 72.8W
E. 17/0500Z TO 17/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Ah thank you. Can't wait to see what they find. And to see how wrong ADT is (still has it a T4.0 )

I highly doubt it’s an open wave. Convection is too persistent near the LLC. However, I’m gonna guess it’s 40 kt top. Elsa looked good while it was in the same region but was very weak.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

If Henri does effect how far west the high goes then it’s safe to say that anyone south of Port O’Connor should be on guard…right??

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5841/Qzrtrs.gif

Looks like shear may already be beginning to decrease. I see lots of cirrus moving towards the W and NW from the center now.

Looks like the two centers recon found much earlier are exiting Hispaniola.
Jamaica may consolidate the circulation, competing centers have been keeping the intensity down.
Then we can check the upper air forecast for shear and steering.
Someone said the large high that will be steering this west may center a little further east in response to pumping by Henri.

[Sciencerocks]

[AerospaceEng]

Sure doesn’t appear to be progressing west very quickly. Will be interesting to see where recon finds it.

[ElectricStorm]

I know IR can be deceiving, especially at night, but it looks like those 2 new towers are trying to wrap around the center... We'll see what recon finds

[aspen]

Wow, the NHC actually said it has a chance to become a hurricane in the WCar

[NDG]

Good thing land interaction and the Caribbean low level trades has kept Grace at bay, it has that look that it wants to take off as soon as it is away from land and away from the low level trades.
I just don't see anything that will not help it become a hurricane before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

[jaguars_22]

Let’s just say it becomes a cat 2 before the Yucatán… what could it do? More north or more south? Because the gfs shows a stronger storm going more southwest

[Category5Kaiju]

Let’s just say it becomes a cat 2 before the Yucatán… what could it do? More north or more south? Because the gfs shows a stronger storm going more southwest

I was thinking that a stronger storm would turn more to the north? Idk, in the tropics steering is something that can change at any given moment and is heavily dependent on a wide array of factors; in fact, I would not be surprised if somehow even Henri influences whatever ridging or troughing is steering Grace

[dexterlabio]

Good thing land interaction and the Caribbean low level trades has kept Grace at bay, it has that look that it wants to take off as soon as it is away from land and away from the low level trades.
I just don't see anything that will not help it become a hurricane before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

https://i.imgur.com/ijpEOgL.jpg

This looks like a moderate TS at least, anyone thinks the same?

[Sciencerocks]

Good thing land interaction and the Caribbean low level trades has kept Grace at bay, it has that look that it wants to take off as soon as it is away from land and away from the low level trades.
I just don't see anything that will not help it become a hurricane before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

https://i.imgur.com/ijpEOgL.jpg

This looks like a moderate TS at least, anyone thinks the same?

I agree. it is a joke to keep this a depression!

[captainbarbossa19]

Good thing land interaction and the Caribbean low level trades has kept Grace at bay, it has that look that it wants to take off as soon as it is away from land and away from the low level trades.
I just don't see anything that will not help it become a hurricane before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

https://i.imgur.com/ijpEOgL.jpg

This looks like a moderate TS at least, anyone thinks the same?

I agree. it is a joke to keep this a depression!

I have seen much worse looking depressions.

[Owasso]

I wonder if they're waiting on recon here. I agree that it doesn't look or seem like a depression at this point.

[Chris90]

They’re waiting on recon. Satellite presentation is improving and microwave looks really good, but presentation has tricked before. I think they’re fully anticipating recon to find a tropical storm, it’s just possible recon could find a 35kt one or up to a 60kt one on the verge of becoming a hurricane. There’s a wide range of intensity possibilities, so it’s better to wait for the data and just correct the best track later.

Honestly I’m guessing she’s between 45-55kts and I’m leaning towards the middle of the road there at 50kts. We’ll see what recon says.

[IcyTundra]

After the season ends I bet reanalysis will find that Grace restrengthened into a TS earlier today.

[wwizard]

Is the Bay of Campeche ever not favorable for hurricane development during the season?

The blob that turned into Claudette didn't do much down there. Of course that was way early in the season.

[USTropics]

Let’s just say it becomes a cat 2 before the Yucatán… what could it do? More north or more south? Because the gfs shows a stronger storm going more southwest

I was thinking that a stronger storm would turn more to the north? Idk, in the tropics steering is something that can change at any given moment and is heavily dependent on a wide array of factors; in fact, I would not be surprised if somehow even Henri influences whatever ridging or troughing is steering Grace

It's a misconception that a stronger system will always go more north, it's largely dependent on the steering regime. In fact, if Grace were to be stronger while in the BOC a track more to the south would be favorable. If you look at just mid-level steering (we'll use the 700mb geopotential heights) we'll notice steering is out of the ESE and we do get this depiction of our mid-level ridge:


But this is only part of the story, if we continue up into the atmosphere, we have this noticeable blocking ridge sitting over Texas and extending into the WGOM. The flow around this high pressure area creates a steering current that is more out of the north (this southerly induced flow is also being enhanced by the ULL over Cuba in this forecast):


We can also see this extension of high pressure over southern Texas on the ECMWF run:


Now let's add all of this together on the GFS sounding and we can get a real depiction of the steering. We have winds out of the ENE at the upper-levels due the 200mb high pressure area over SE Texas, and we have a more ESE to WNW oriented mid-level ridge. In this instance, a shallower system would likely get more north (see the latest ECMWF run). A system that is deepening in the BOC would likely dip a bit more south (see latest GFS run):