ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Good thing there is a 355K PV streamer ahead of this that is putting a lid on any strong spin up.
Looks like that will clear out once Grace gets close to the Yucatan.

[lrak]

Reading prior posts "weak means west" if Grace does gain strength before the Yucatan will it move closer to Texas?

[vbhoutex]

Reading prior posts "weak means west" if Grace does gain strength before the Yucatan will it move closer to Texas?

Imo it is a possibility but with Fred heading inland today the ridge should be building in behind him and this would tend to keep Grace on a more southerly track. If Grace somehow intensifies unexpectedly there would be the possibility she could erode the West side of the ridge some which could lead to a more northerly track.

[underthwx]

Reading prior posts "weak means west" if Grace does gain strength before the Yucatan will it move closer to Texas?

Imo it is a possibility but with Fred heading inland today the ridge should be building in behind him and this would tend to keep Grace on a more southerly track. If Grace somehow intensifies unexpectedly there would be the possibility she could erode the West side of the ridge some which could lead to a more northerly track.

Good morning!...I noticed the 11 am NHC Grace update has the intensity at 70 mph, at 96 hours, I found that to be interesting, perhaps the center remaining over water, versus over the land areas of the DR, and unfortunately Haiti, and the earthquake affected areas..does this 96 hour intensity leave the NHC more wiggle room for perhaps a system with higher intensity than us thought at this time?....I hope that my question makes sense, lol...but I'm curious if the experts feel that Grace may pack a bit more punch than what it appears to be at the moment?

[GCANE]

Taking a quick look at the synoptic forecast, particularly 355K PV and CAPE.
Looks like this could ramp up in the BOC/GOM.

[GCANE]

Keeping a close eye on the forecast around the 21st when this gets in the GOM.
The Rossby Wave is very significant.
If it pushes more south or becomes a bit delayed in the upcoming forecasts, the ARWB would then follow and get more over Grace.
Also, if Graces' forecasted track moves more north, the same thing.
The idea is if Grace gets under the ARWB, then rapid intensification becomes a real possibility.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

Recon just found ~45 kt FL and ~50 kt SFMR winds, heavily suggesting Grace is back to being a TS. The center is getting very close to the southernmost tip of DR and might be shifting north for a landfall.

[Category5Kaiju]

It really breaks my heart that the region of Haiti devastated by the 7.2 earthquake is now bracing for even more suffering from the rain from Grace. I had really hoped that Grace would miss Haiti entirely in light of that disaster, but unfortunately it looks like that may not come to fruition. Almost reminds me of when in 1991 Mt. Pinatubo's eruption happened and then a typhoon impacted the affected region shortly afterwards

[Sambucol]

Recon just found ~45 kt FL and ~50 kt SFMR winds, heavily suggesting Grace is back to being a TS. The center is getting very close to the southernmost tip of DR and might be shifting north for a landfall.

If the center were to shift north, how would that affect the track?

[aspen]

Recon just found ~45 kt FL and ~50 kt SFMR winds, heavily suggesting Grace is back to being a TS. The center is getting very close to the southernmost tip of DR and might be shifting north for a landfall.

If the center were to shift north, how would that affect the track?

It could go between Cuba and the Yucatán into the Gulf, as seen in the 12z HWRF, which initialized Grace very well. Without a landfall in the Yucatán, Grace could have a higher ceiling in the Gulf because it won’t have to rebuild a core.

[jaguars_22]

It looks to me like grace is getting that shape? She looks better on IR

[aspen]

I’m surprised Grace remains a TD despite data from recon supporting winds greater than 30 kt. Since she’s producing a lot more convection that could translate FL winds down to the surface, maybe she’s upgraded at 5pm.

Looks like Grace could become a very potent threat in the Gulf. Most models are suggesting a hurricane in the BoC, and the HWRF goes absolutely bonkers with a 921 mbar Cat 4 near landfall, partially due to the center missing the Yucatán.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m surprised Grace remains a TD despite data from recon supporting winds greater than 30 kt. Since she’s producing a lot more convection that could translate FL winds down to the surface, maybe she’s upgraded at 5pm.

Looks like Grace could become a very potent threat in the Gulf. Most models are suggesting a hurricane in the BoC, and the HWRF goes absolutely bonkers with a 921 mbar Cat 4 near landfall, partially due to the center missing the Yucatán.

Agreed, this is a TS. The center is also pretty apparent, you can see the rotating center of convection as it passes the southern tip of hispaniola. The hwrf may not be that far off on short term track

[underthwx]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1247/Wex0iS.gif

Grace appears to be holding its own for now....are there any features that Grace will encounter that may limit it's development...other than land interaction?

[ElectricStorm]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1247/Wex0iS.gif

Grace appears to be holding its own for now....are there any features that Grace will encounter that may limit it's development...other than land interaction?

NHC mentioned some shear may keep it in check until it reaches the Yucatan. But once it gets into the gulf conditions will likely be very good.

[underthwx]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1247/Wex0iS.gif

Grace appears to be holding its own for now....are there any features that Grace will encounter that may limit it's development...other than land interaction?

NHC mentioned some shear may keep it in check until it reaches the Yucatan. But once it gets into the gulf conditions will likely be very good.

Thanks for your reply..

[aspen]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1247/Wex0iS.gif

Grace appears to be holding its own for now....are there any features that Grace will encounter that may limit it's development...other than land interaction?

NHC mentioned some shear may keep it in check until it reaches the Yucatan. But once it gets into the gulf conditions will likely be very good.

Looking at the HWRF, it seems that shear finally starts letting up once it nears/passes through the Yucatán Channel late Wednesday/early Thursday, dropping below 20 kt with the flow in all levels of the atmosphere starting to match the same direction. Upon entering the Gulf the next day, shear is under 10 kt.

[Category5Kaiju]

Cancun may need to watch this closely.

[alienstorm]

Not sure it's my deceiving eyes but looks like Grace center may be riding up the Bahone West coast. If that is the case then could affect more of Haiti and potentially Eastern Cuba.