Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
...CENTER OF FRED NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 77.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys
on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1013 mb
(29.92 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.
Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.
From today into Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.
From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
across the Florida Keys, in the warning area, on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Florida beginning Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
...CENTER OF FRED MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 78.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara and has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Las Tunas, Granma,
and Holguin.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de
Avila, and Camaguey
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later
today. Interest in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the
progress of Fred.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or near the north
coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys
on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the Florida
peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow
strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical storm
again tonight or Saturday.
The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1013 mb
(29.92 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.
Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.
From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
Fred remains disorganized this morning. The low-level center,
which is currently over the barrier islands of the north coast of
Cuba, is exposed to the northwest of the main convective mass due
to moderate southwesterly vertical shear. Reports from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft show winds of 25-30 kt
to the northeast of the center, so the initial intensity remains
30 kt. The central pressure is 1013 mb based on a combination of
aircraft data and surface observations.
The center has jogged a bit to the left during the past several
hours, which has brought it to the Cuban coast. The longer-term
initial motion is 295/10. The cyclone should continue
west-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward
the northwest as Fred approaches the western periphery of the
subtropical ridge. This motion should take the center along the
northern coast of Cuba today, near the Florida Keys and the
southwestern coast of Florida on Saturday, and near or over the
coast of the Florida Panhandle Sunday night or Monday. After that,
a northward turn is expected as Fred moves into a weakness in the
ridge over the southeastern United States. With both the initial
position and the track guidance shifting westward since the last
advisory, the new forecast track is also nudged a little to the
west. The new track is east of the consensus models, especially
from 24-60 h, and thus some additional adjustments could occur
later today if the current model trends continue.
Fred is continuing to experience about 20 kt of westerly or
southwesterly vertical wind shear, and these conditions should
continue for at least another 24 hours. Between that and land
interaction, the intensity forecast calls for only modest
strengthening during this time. After that, there is still
relatively poor agreement on how much shear Fred will experience as
it crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the ECMWF and the UKMET
forecasting less shear than the GFS and CMC global models. Due to
the uncertainty, the intensity forecast will keep the previous peak
intensity of 45 kt. However, the intensity guidance during this
period has trended a little higher, and the 45 kt peak is now a
little below the upper edge of the guidance.
It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected
to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains,
strongest winds, and a chance of tornadoes will be.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern and
central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain
and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast
and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred
interacts with a front in that area.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.
3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and
early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the
Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions
will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the
Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 22.3N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
12H 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 24.2N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 25.6N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 28.7N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 30.2N 85.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1200Z 33.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 36.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de
Avila, and Camaguey
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later
today. Interests in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the
progress of Fred.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving along or near
the north coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida
Keys on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the
Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that,
slow strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical
storm again tonight or Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.
Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.
From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 79.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches
in Cuba.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and in the Florida peninsula and
Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional
watches and warnings could be required for portions of the west
coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle tonight or Saturday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 79.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general
motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast
track, Fred is expected to continue moving near the the north
coast of central Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower
Florida Keys on Saturday, and pass near or west of the west coast
of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that, slow
strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm
again on Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. ... y_messages.
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.
Today through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.
From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
Although there has been a general increase in convection
associated with Fred since this morning, the system remains
disorganized with the low-level center moving farther inland over
central Cuba. Earlier ASCAT data detected an area of 25-27 kt
winds over water to the northeast of the center, and based on that
data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, which could be a
little generous.
Since the previous advisory, Fred has been moving nearly due
westward, but the longer-term motion is estimated to be 280/10 kt.
The cyclone is nearing the western periphery of a subtropical ridge
that is centered over the western Atlantic. This should cause Fred
to turn west-northwestward tonight, and then northwestward
on Saturday. The latest interpolated guidance that was
initialized with the more southward and westward 18Z initial
position shows a wider or more gradual northwestward turn, and
therefore has shifted significantly westward, especially in the
short term. However, the global models fields track the 850-mb
vorticity center more along the northern coast of Cuba and some of
those models suggest a center re-formation could occur on Saturday
near the north coast of Cuba or over the Straits of Florida. As a
result, the first 24-36 hours of the track forecast has been
adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not as far west as the
trackers, leaving open the possibility that a center re-formation
could occur. After that time, the NHC forecast lies along the
eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the 12Z
GFS. Some additional westward adjustments may be necessary until
the track guidance stabilizes. It is worth noting that it isn't too
surprising to see these type of models shifts with a system that
remains quite disorganized.
Fred remains within an area of moderate southwesterly vertical wind
shear, and the model guidance generally indicates that this shear
will continue during the next day or so. Since it will also take
time for the system to recover after its passage over Cuba, only
gradual strengthening is indicated during the next day or two. After
that time, the system could be in a somewhat more favorable
environment, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for some
strengthening until Fred reaches the northern Gulf Coast, which now
doesn't occur until around 72 hours with the wider turn shown in
the track forecast. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the
various consensus aids, the statistical guidance, and the HWRF
model, which all generally show the system peaking in 60-72 hours.
The intensity forecast remains of lower-than-normal confidence due
to Fred's continued interaction with land.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and a chance of tornadoes will extend
far to northeast and east of the center, and those hazards are
likely to still affect portions of the Florida peninsula, despite
the recent shift in the forecast track.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern and
central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain
and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast
and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred
interacts with a front in that area.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.
3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and
early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the
Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions
will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the
Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 22.3N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0600Z 23.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1800Z 24.2N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 15/0600Z 25.4N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 27.0N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 28.8N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 30.2N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 33.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Brown