ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

HH just went through again basically stationary and pressure appears to be falling again. Also working on getting some intense cloud tops.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband13.html

[IcyTundra]

Fred is going to surprise a lot of people tomorrow imo.

[AxaltaRacing24]

HMM the 0z GFS calling for a cat 1 (and strengthening) landfall tomorrow may be shock to some folks in the morning if the NHC decides to drop Hurricane Watches up overnight.

This storm not landfalling as a cat 1 in the gulf at this time of year would be a surprise.

[psyclone]

HH just went through again basically stationary and pressure appears to be falling again. Also working on getting some intense cloud tops.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband13.html

Is the exposed swirl west of the convection the actual center? Or is it buried in the convective mass? I can't tell. there appears to be some rotation within the convection on the TLH radar but it's a long way from the radar site so not sure what the deal is...

[tropicwatch]

HH just went through again basically stationary and pressure appears to be falling again. Also working on getting some intense cloud tops.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband13.html

Is the exposed swirl west of the convection the actual center? Or is it buried in the convective mass? I can't tell. there appears to be some rotation within the convection on the TLH radar but it's a long way from the radar site so not sure what the deal is...

I don't think there is a naked swirl. Here is the TPW loop and you can see where the center probably is in the last frame. The last frame is only about an hour old.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/mimictpw_natl_latest.gif

[ElectricStorm]

NHC might need to start thinking about putting some hurricane watches up, as Fred looks like he's ramping up. Fred is proving why is not wise to write off storms or assume they won't do much if they are forecasted to track over Hispaniola. Fred pretty much had to start from scratch and now it's trying to reach hurricane status before landfall. And it's not like conditions are super perfect for it either. Hopefully everyone stays safe...

[Cat5James]

HH just went through again basically stationary and pressure appears to be falling again. Also working on getting some intense cloud tops.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband13.html

Is the exposed swirl west of the convection the actual center? Or is it buried in the convective mass? I can't tell. there appears to be some rotation within the convection on the TLH radar but it's a long way from the radar site so not sure what the deal is...

I don't think there is a naked swirl. Here is the TPW loop and you can see where the center probably is in the last frame. The last frame is only about an hour old.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/mimictpw_natl_latest.gif

Grace looks to be consolidation on that loop as well.

[Category5Kaiju]

Remember that red hot spot of UOHC in the Gulf that has persisted for a while (the Loop Current?) It looks like we have a storm that is finally taking real advantage of that.

[Dean4Storms]

Fred’s center is exactly where Recon keeps placing it just west of the convection near 86w. Anything east of there is the MLC which is further east. Sometimes surface centers get displaced from the vortex through the atmosphere, it might even be a cyclonic loop.

Edit: Yep, Fred has drifted eastward.

[tropicwatch]

Fred’s center is exactly where Recon keeps placing it just west of the convection near 86w. Anything east of there is the MLC which is further east. Sometimes surface centers get displaced from the vortex through the atmosphere, it might even be a cyclonic loop.

Edit: Yep, Fred has drifted eastward.

It does look like the low level center is just on the southwest side of the convection. The TPW loop must be showing the MLC.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=8786&y=5162&z=4&angle=0&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=80&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_07&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[crimi481]

Moving N.E I may get weather here in Venice lol

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1427109225994412044

[BobHarlem]

Systems in the Gulf that are ramping up quickly at landfall historically have been the most damaging, I hope there's enough shear to counter that effect.

[crimi481]

good outflow from the high above it. Ramping up

[Steve]

It’s not like it’s super dry here in New Orleans. It’s been cloudy and thundery and raining off and on due to the boundary from the old trough. Almost looks like pattern reversal which you get sometimes when an upper trough fills in or backs away. So the shear may not play a large factor with Fred. He’d be in almost an eddy spot if high pressure kept building in as it replaced the upper trough. So maybe that’s the timing with HWRF and why it’s aggressive coming in.

[Kingarabian]

Still a lot of localized subsidence (dry) in the south and western quads. All the weather seems to be to the north and east. Could change within the next 24 hours.

[tropicwatch]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 5:17Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Name: Fred
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 26

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 4:59:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.39N 85.98W
B. Center Fix Location: 194 statute miles (311 km) to the S (186°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,463m (4,800ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 95° at 13kts (From the E at 15mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 54kts (62.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fix at 4:44:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 144° at 46kts (From the SE at 52.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fix at 4:44:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 32kts (36.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix at 5:03:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 65° at 35kts (From the ENE at 40.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix at 5:08:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) which was observed 76 nautical miles (87 statute miles) to the E (98°) from the flight level center at 4:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the ENE (72°) from the flight level center
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1427140806867972097

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1427150755421696004

[Sciencerocks]