ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

With Fred looking like he's trying to make a run for hurricane status in the gulf, I'm starting to get even more concerned about what Grace could do if she manages to get to the gulf. If she gets there, she should have even better conditions than Fred has. Unless this tracks even further south and hits the Yucatan, I think there may be some potential for Grace to become a big problem in the gulf. Still lots of time before then of course so we'll see what happens.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Grace decides to thread the needle between Jamaica & Cuba. Texas might get it’s first & only look at a hurricane this year…unless September got some nasty tricks up its sleeve.

Grace is our first big swing in track this year. From Florida to Mexico in 2 day



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL072021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/024223_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[IcyTundra]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Grace decides to thread the needle between Jamaica & Cuba. Texas might get it’s first & only look at a hurricane this year…unless September got some nasty tricks up its sleeve.

Grace is our first big swing in track this year. From Florida to Mexico in 2 day



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL072021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/024223_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

We can only hope personally I don't let my self think we are in the clear until we get into the last week of September.

[galaxy401]

Yeah I'm surprised Grace has made a little comeback this evening. I was boarding the train of it being a Tropical Wave but now I feel it's back to being a Tropical Storm again!

[captainbarbossa19]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Grace decides to thread the needle between Jamaica & Cuba. Texas might get it’s first & only look at a hurricane this year…unless September got some nasty tricks up its sleeve.

Grace is our first big swing in track this year. From Florida to Mexico in 2 day



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL072021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/024223_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

We can only hope personally I don't let my self think we are in the clear until we get into the last week of September.

I don't start feeling good until mid-October. Delta caused a lot of problems in my area even though it was making landfall in Louisiana.

On a different note, it looks we should have more data soon from recon as they are in Grace now.

[Kingarabian]

Looking really good this evening but I have no idea what is what.

[blp]

Where is Grace going? It does not look west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html

[UTSARoadrunner4]

The first cold front of October is Texas’s best friend.

It looks like it’s bound to miss the base of Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula. Even if it does touch it I’m not sure on how it’ll disrupt her…

I wouldn’t be surprised if Grace decides to thread the needle between Jamaica & Cuba. Texas might get it’s first & only look at a hurricane this year…unless September got some nasty tricks up its sleeve.

We can only hope personally I don't let my self think we are in the clear until we get into the last week of September.

I don't start feeling good until mid-October. Delta caused a lot of problems in my area even though it was making landfall in Louisiana.

On a different note, it looks we should have more data soon from recon as they are in Grace now.

[galaxy401]

Where is Grace going? It does not look west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html

Is that an eye feature trying to develop or just radar limits?

[Keldeo1997]

Looks like 2 Centers competing for dominance. Need to watch if they get pulled into the convection as well.

[blp]

Not sure what is going on but recon has two centers plus the what could be the MLC on radar heading north. This is a hot mess.

[Hurricaneman]

Not sure what is going on but recon has two centers plus the what could be the MLC on radar heading north. This is a hot mess.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/76177af49cf1424be318f795a2c158f4bf5bfbc7d540ee5e260ba64600b440e0.png

The one to the SW seems to be becoming dominant but seeing as there seems to be a few eddy’s going around in this it may not be closed yet or just a broad rotation with a few vortices rotating a broad low

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like recon went with the northern center for now

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...GRACE CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 69.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES

[Sciencerocks]

[Keldeo1997]

I think the center the NHC had just died or it moved slightly SW

[AlphaToOmega]

The NHC cone takes this right over Haiti.

[aspen]

Grace all of a sudden has become way, way more concerning. It’ll go right over earthquake-ravaged Haiti, then it’ll have 2 days to strengthen before hitting Quinta Roo, and finally another two days in the BoC. Rain and mudslides will only worsen recovery efforts from the earthquake, and it’s entirely possible Grace could hit Mexico as a hurricane twice. Quite a change from yesterday’s outlook of Fred 2.0, or the forecasts from a few days ago where it could go north of the islands.

If this track holds, Grace will become the first Caribbean Cruiser since Dean/Felix in 2007. Very weak for most of its time in the Caribbean, but it still counts.

[Owasso]

[aspen]

Looks like the center is still around 17.4N, so no gain in latitude from the 5am advisory so far. Still really disorganized, but pressures are finally below 1010 mbar. Not sure if it should be upgraded back to a TS yet.