ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Yeah I don't see how Grace is still a TS. East Caribbean graveyard back at it. I imagine the NHC will still continue advisories similar to Fred since I assume they feel like redevelopment is likely.

[wxman57]

NHC put the center at 17.3N/66.8W at 18Z. Definitely nothing there according to recon. They'll have to adjust their track southward.

[wxman57]

Yeah I don't see how Grace is still a TS. East Caribbean graveyard back at it. I imagine the NHC will still continue advisories similar to Fred since I assume they feel like redevelopment is likely.

I remember how they stopped advisories on Harvey on the 20th of August, 2017, even though it was predicted to redevelop in the SW Gulf in 3-4 days. We continued advisories with a track toward south TX. Who knows what they'll do?

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like an open wave to me. Will still need to be watched for redevelopment, especially if it gets in the gulf...

[skyline385]

Recon is still sampling multiple SFMRs of 35 kts and over, dont see why they will stop advisories for it. It has plenty of precipitation around it as well.

[wxman57]

Recon is still sampling multiple SFMRs of 35 kts and over, dont see why they will stop advisories for it. It has plenty of precipitation around it as well.

Those SFMR winds are highly suspect with FL winds 25 kts or less. A TD or TS needs to have a circulation to be classified as such. Tropical waves can produce TS winds, but advisories are not written on them unless they are predicted to develop into a tropical storm and impact land within 48 hrs.

[aspen]

I hate this storm.

[Deshaunrob17]

Grace and Fred giving me Laura and Marco flashbacks !!!!

[skyline385]

Recon is still sampling multiple SFMRs of 35 kts and over, dont see why they will stop advisories for it. It has plenty of precipitation around it as well.

Those SFMR winds are highly suspect with FL winds 25 kts or less. A TD or TS needs to have a circulation to be classified as such. Tropical waves can produce TS winds, but advisories are not written on them unless they are predicted to develop into a tropical storm and impact land within 48 hrs.

Agreed but whats the difference in the potential impacts between a Tropical storm or a Tropical wave producing TS force winds and carrying tons of precipitation with it hitting a populated area?
From a safety point of view of the people being impacted, it would make sense for the NHC to continue issuing advisories no?

[tailgater]

Recon finding some light west winds but certainly not a tight circulation.

[typhoonty]

I think Grace is an open wave. In fact, I'm not even sure it ever met the classification of a tropical cyclone, as Recon has now twice failed to find west winds in their admittedly limited sampling. I just read through the NWS/NHC final reports and service changes post Hurricane Sandy, and the service changes appear to only allow for issuances of watches/warnings on post tropical cyclones in US territories. Although given the precedent of issuing PTC watches/warnings internationally they might just keep the warnings up.

Not having the tropical cyclone based warnings was seen as a big mistake during Sandy as it lowered preparedness. I just don't see how cancelling the warnings for Hispanola now is the correct move even if they technically don't get TS conditions, as just the rain will cause problems. I would hate for Hispanola to think the threat is clear and then a massive mudslide happens as a direct result of Grace. Protecting lives and property is most important. I wonder what NHC will do.

[ScottNAtlanta]

They found what looks to be a center with consistent westerly winds...not the prettiest, but a center none the less. It isn't an open wave, and it is pretty far south

[captainbarbossa19]

They found what looks to be a center with consistent westerly winds...not the prettiest, but a center none the less. It isn't an open wave, and it is pretty far south

That would be interesting if Grace avoided Hispaniola completely.

[wxman57]

They found what looks to be a center with consistent westerly winds...not the prettiest, but a center none the less. It isn't an open wave, and it is pretty far south

That would be interesting if Grace avoided Hispaniola completely.

Looks like an area of light and variable winds. Wouldn't call it a circulation. It's Way south of the 18Z position. I'm adjusting my track south side of Cuba, but it's going to struggle for 3-4 days. There's no reason to think it will suddenly develop over the next few days.

[Senobia]

They found what looks to be a center with consistent westerly winds...not the prettiest, but a center none the less. It isn't an open wave, and it is pretty far south

wxman said this above as well.
Interesting development, for sure.

[galaxy401]

I hate this storm.

That just summarizes all those East Caribbean slop storms in July-August for you. Always very difficult to forecast because they never behave what a "normal" TC should in the tropics.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/pPSKb9TBkdQ[/youtube]

[ScottNAtlanta]

They found what looks to be a center with consistent westerly winds...not the prettiest, but a center none the less. It isn't an open wave, and it is pretty far south

That would be interesting if Grace avoided Hispaniola completely.

Looks like an area of light and variable winds. Wouldn't call it a circulation. It's Way south of the 18Z position. I'm adjusting my track south side of Cuba, but it's going to struggle for 3-4 days. There's no reason to think it will suddenly develop over the next few days.

Do you think this gets buried into Mexico? I'm not buying that solution. I do agree this isn't going to do much in the next couple of days. It just needs to survive to fight a couple of days from now.

[underthwx]

NHC put the center at 17.3N/66.8W at 18Z. Definitely nothing there according to recon. They'll have to adjust their track southward.

Are you thinking it will interact with the Yucatan?

[IcyTundra]

That would be interesting if Grace avoided Hispaniola completely.

Looks like an area of light and variable winds. Wouldn't call it a circulation. It's Way south of the 18Z position. I'm adjusting my track south side of Cuba, but it's going to struggle for 3-4 days. There's no reason to think it will suddenly develop over the next few days.

Do you think this gets buried into Mexico? I'm not buying that solution. I do agree this isn't going to do much in the next couple of days. It just needs to survive to fight a couple of days from now.

If the ridge is a strong as some models are showing this absolutely could get buried into Mexico