ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

I'm not sure that Grace has a circulation. ASCAT back at 0030Z indicated a wave axis. Similar for 13Z pass. GFS/ICON/CMC/ECMWF all develop a ridge along the northern Gulf Coast by Thu/Fri, which would push Grace west into Mexico not into the NW Gulf as per NHC track. All indicate a wave near western Cuba Thursday morning. Seems reasonable. I'm sticking with a MX landfall next Sunday.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not sure that Grace has a circulation. GFS/ICON/CMC/ECMWF all develop a ridge along the northern Gulf Coast by Thu/Fri, which would push Grace west into Mexico not into the NW Gulf as per NHC track. All indicate a wave near western Cuba Thursday morning. Seems reasonable. I'm sticking with a MX landfall next Sunday.

RIP Grace.... Next?

[wxman57]

I'm not sure that Grace has a circulation. GFS/ICON/CMC/ECMWF all develop a ridge along the northern Gulf Coast by Thu/Fri, which would push Grace west into Mexico not into the NW Gulf as per NHC track. All indicate a wave near western Cuba Thursday morning. Seems reasonable. I'm sticking with a MX landfall next Sunday.

RIP Grace.... Next?

I have it near hurricane strength heading for Mexico, but that may be too high. Will really depend on Grace's status when it reaches western Cuba. Does it even have an LLC then? Just a wave axis? If it's just a wave, it won't get very strong.

[aspen]

I'm not sure that Grace has a circulation. ASCAT back at 0030Z indicated a wave axis. Similar for 13Z pass.

We should know for sure soon. Recon should be at Grace within the hour.

[skyline385]

Such Grace and elegance

[wxman57]

I'm not sure that Grace has a circulation. ASCAT back at 0030Z indicated a wave axis. Similar for 13Z pass.

We should know for sure soon. Recon should be at Grace within the hour.

NE-ENE winds right up the west side, indicative of a wave.

[aspen]

Such Grace and elegance

https://i.imgur.com/jy7qIOz.png

A disgrace.

What even caused this to just…not intensify? Shear was supposed to be decent. Maybe something in the mid levels?

[tolakram]

[toad strangler]

The frequency of posting in the Grace threads has plummeted since last night. Looks like many Florida posters have poofed

Looks disorganized and very likely to get disrupted even more passing over or very near the the Greater Antilles. If she can make it into the Gulf in tact, conditions do appear favorable though so we will need to keep an eye on that.

LOL its always funny to me how the number of post go down once a storm appears to no longer be a threat to Florida.Of course Florida isn't out of the woods either yet...

Nah, I think most just aren't feeling it with Grace ATM. That could change, but it's very possible that Fred ends up being the stronger storm.

[skyline385]

Such Grace and elegance

https://i.imgur.com/jy7qIOz.png

A disgrace.

What even caused this to just…not intensify? Shear was supposed to be decent. Maybe something in the mid levels?

Think its mostly because of how fast it was. Slowing down now but the centers never properly aligned nor developed a proper circulation because of it.

[SoupBone]

I'm not sure that Grace has a circulation. ASCAT back at 0030Z indicated a wave axis. Similar for 13Z pass. GFS/ICON/CMC/ECMWF all develop a ridge along the northern Gulf Coast by Thu/Fri, which would push Grace west into Mexico not into the NW Gulf as per NHC track. All indicate a wave near western Cuba Thursday morning. Seems reasonable. I'm sticking with a MX landfall next Sunday.

I'm holding you to this, boss. J/K

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/eNDlXuz.png

E/NE winds on the West side?

[chaser1]

The frequency of posting in the Grace threads has plummeted since last night. Looks like many Florida posters have poofed

Looks disorganized and very likely to get disrupted even more passing over or very near the the Greater Antilles. If she can make it into the Gulf in tact, conditions do appear favorable though so we will need to keep an eye on that.

LOL its always funny to me how the number of post go down once a storm appears to no longer be a threat to Florida.Of course Florida isn't out of the woods either yet...

Nah, I think most just aren't feeling it with Grace ATM. That could change, but it's very possible that Fred ends up being the stronger storm.

Correct, even as a Floridian I'd be equally glued to any W. Caribbean tropical cyclone progged for steady intensification while heading toward a Texas impact. Grace however lacks two of those qualities
1) Tropical cyclone (it's actually a tropical wave)
2) Intensification (meaning wind field, falling pressures - not ML related convection)

[Craters]

Um, regardless of what kind of shape Grace is in right now... There's close to 2000 miles of nice, warm water and potentially decent atmospheric conditions ahead of it if it were to continue moving WNW. Writing it off might not quite be justified yet. There are still a few of us left who have more than a little interest in what happens between now and the next week or so.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure if anyone mentioned this ( or noticed it) .. but better started watching to the NE/N of PR for a reformation. already showing some low to mid level vorticity of radar. PR may act like a wind break/wave break. splitting the energy.

surface obs east of PR also have switched to SE/SSE

[AdamFirst]

In my amateur opinion, Grace has opened up. Gotta watch for potential areas for center redevelopment. There is a slight curvature to bands on San Juan radar to the east of the island. May be something there if convection persists.

Tracking this slop through the Atlantic and Caribbean is exhausting.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[tolakram]

[captainbarbossa19]

A somewhat similar case I believe. Look how bad Laura looked east of Hispaniola in this video.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/D2Z1dVxylJo[/youtube]

[wxman57]

Will the NHC declare Grace an open wave but continue advisories as they did for Fred? Will they stop advisories? We'll see. Certainly nothing up around 17N where they had a center. A wave would just track westward.

[AdamFirst]

Will the NHC declare Grace an open wave but continue advisories as they did for Fred? Will they stop advisories? We'll see. Certainly nothing up around 17N where they had a center. A wave would just track westward.

Interested to see if NHC has a moral obligation to continue advisories on a wave axis in terms of Haiti earthquake response. Not sure if they would, however.