ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

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wxman22
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#621 Postby wxman22 » Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:49 am

gatorcane wrote:The frequency of posting in the Grace threads has plummeted since last night. Looks like many Florida posters have poofed :eek:

Looks disorganized and very likely to get disrupted even more passing over or very near the the Greater Antilles. If she can make it into the Gulf in tact, conditions do appear favorable though so we will need to keep an eye on that.


LOL its always funny to me how the number of post go down once a storm appears to no longer be a threat to Florida.Of course Florida isn't out of the woods either yet...
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#622 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:50 am

When did grace get so ugly, I just woke up.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#623 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:53 am

200 frame saved loop. Low clouds still streaming north all over the place.

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#624 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:53 am

Great, now we’re gonna have to deal with what Fred went through AGAIN. And I thought one Fred was annoying and complicated enough.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#625 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:53 am

saved loop
Image
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#626 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:55 am

Hmm, well at this point perhaps the question we should ask is what are the odds of Grace actually dissipating over Hispaniola. Because while yes many storms do not survive over the island, as I have mentioned before, we have had storms like Laura and the 1900 Hurricane in the past that were still TSs at this point that went over the island yet did not fully die, so I guess different storms are different, and while Fred died that would not necessarily mean there’s a 100% chance that Grace follows the exact same footsteps. I feel like the linear speed, angle at which the storm arrives, and structure are all minute details that dictate a particular storm’s chances of surviving over Hispaniola, so perhaps we should still keep an eye on this until we know for sure it’s a done deal?
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#627 Postby blp » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:15 am

I think the Northern part is starting to take over as the new area of focus for a new LLC. You can see inflow bands from the S and E. The old southern LLC is rotating SW and will dissipate soon.

https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/grace21/Grace_15Aug21_TJUA.gif

Image
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#628 Postby canes04 » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:20 am

BLP, was watching this same area all morning.
Usually lurk and learn from you guys.
Are there any obs in the area.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#629 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:23 am

blp wrote:I think the Northern part is starting to take over as the new area of focus for a new LLC. You can see inflow bands from the S and E. The old southern LLC is rotating SW and will dissipate soon.

https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/grace21/Grace_15Aug21_TJUA.gif

https://i.ibb.co/Nt9cwt3/Capture2.png


I'm not so sure that's a new center, Grace is just really disorganized.

Here's a long running radar loop though https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?650
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#630 Postby Kohlecane » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:23 am

blp wrote:I think the Northern part is starting to take over as the new area of focus for a new LLC. You can see inflow bands from the S and E. The old southern LLC is rotating SW and will dissipate soon.

https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/grace21/Grace_15Aug21_TJUA.gif

https://i.ibb.co/Nt9cwt3/Capture2.png

Now that would be a game changer if that were to verify!!
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#631 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:26 am

wxman22 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The frequency of posting in the Grace threads has plummeted since last night. Looks like many Florida posters have poofed :eek:

Looks disorganized and very likely to get disrupted even more passing over or very near the the Greater Antilles. If she can make it into the Gulf in tact, conditions do appear favorable though so we will need to keep an eye on that.


LOL its always funny to me how the number of post go down once a storm appears to no longer be a threat to Florida.Of course Florida isn't out of the woods either yet...


Was Florida ever expected to get a major hit from it? There were some long range GFS runs but nothing significant and the NHC hasnt said much about a danger to Florida either.

The storm in itself is just uninteresting and we dont have much recon going that far out as well. There is only so much one can stare at disorganized IR loops, not to mention this is a repeat of Fred and Elsa as well. Everyone's probably just burned out...
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#632 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:36 am

blp wrote:I think the Northern part is starting to take over as the new area of focus for a new LLC. You can see inflow bands from the S and E. The old southern LLC is rotating SW and will dissipate soon.

https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/grace21/Grace_15Aug21_TJUA.gif

https://i.ibb.co/Nt9cwt3/Capture2.png

Sounds like competing LLC’s to me, the average position would take this right towards Hispanola.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#633 Postby AerospaceEng » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:40 am

If I am reading the plan correctly, looks like recon should be heading out to Grace in 1 hour?
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#634 Postby Kohlecane » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:43 am

So I see NOAA49 but it's showing a gulfstream flying 30k+ upper atmosphere dynamics?
EDIT: P-3 taking off now love tracking these on flight radar :ggreen:
Last edited by Kohlecane on Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#635 Postby blp » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:43 am

canes04 wrote:BLP, was watching this same area all morning.
Usually lurk and learn from you guys.
Are there any obs in the area.


That is a good question. I looked at the surface obs in area don't show a LLC yet. It looks mid level right now but that could change quickly as the old LLC decays and this mlc starts working to the surface.

The NHC is going with the center of the two as a broad gyre center for now.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#636 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:47 am

LLC might be much further south than thought.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1426932437414731785


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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#637 Postby blp » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:49 am

NDG wrote:LLC might be much further south than thought.

[]https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1426932437414731785[/url]


I think you have to go with radar at this point. This is changing quickly.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#638 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:50 am

blp wrote:I think the Northern part is starting to take over as the new area of focus for a new LLC. You can see inflow bands from the S and E. The old southern LLC is rotating SW and will dissipate soon.

https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/grace21/Grace_15Aug21_TJUA.gif

https://i.ibb.co/Nt9cwt3/Capture2.png


According to ASCAT there is no evidence of center relocation east of Puerto Rico
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#639 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:51 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:You can see westerly shear starting to impact Grace. Look at how there's a "wall" in between Puerto Rico and DR.

https://i.imgur.com/Rr4nlDU.jpg


From looking at this image, I would imagine the center to be about 100 or so miles South of PR, and if it is moving W or WNW, then it might miss almost all of the DR and skirt in between Cuba and Jamaica and not hit much land at all.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#640 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:51 am

Video Update on Grace
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_DKoss7QXA
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