ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

https://i.imgur.com/YFZQq6y.gif
NHC says due W at 8pm and IMO the convection is moving WNW-NW...

Still really booking . Should slow down soon.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[AutoPenalti]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/UT7Ys9m.gif

super disorganized

[Spacecoast]

[IsabelaWeather]

3.5.

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 14/2330Z

C. 16.4N

D. 60.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND
PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 3.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

If it has a dvorak of 3.5 wouldnt that equate to like 55knots? I'm sure the winds arent that high so I am a bit confused

[tolakram]

saves SW loop

[skyline385]

3.5.

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 14/2330Z

C. 16.4N

D. 60.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND
PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 3.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

If it has a dvorak of 3.5 wouldnt that equate to like 55knots? I'm sure the winds arent that high so I am a bit confused

dvorak isnt always very accurate...

[Spacecoast]

From RAMMB / CIRA:
FWIW - Not sure about the accuracy of this experimental graphic?

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)

[Nimbus]

I wonder if we can get ASCAT again, there’s a chance there might be another vorticity on that southern lobe that seems to be developing...

You mean the southern part of the old wave just off the south American coast line?
Western Caribbean bound?

[msbee]

Current conditions in St. Maarten:
Wind picking up.
Thunder in the distance.
Lightning in the South.
No rain.
Cockatoo, dogs, and humans tucked in for the night.

[cycloneye]

Current conditions in St. Maarten:
Wind picking up.
Thunder in the distance.
Lightning in the South.
No rain.
Cockatoo, dogs, and humans tucked in for the night.

Hopefully nothing bad happens there Barbara. Stay safe.

[Blown Away]

Current conditions in St. Maarten:
Wind picking up.
Thunder in the distance.
Lightning in the South.
No rain.
Cockatoo, dogs, and humans tucked in for the night.

Stay safe, super convection blob heading your way!

[msbee]

Current conditions in St. Maarten:
Wind picking up.
Thunder in the distance.
Lightning in the South.
No rain.
Cockatoo, dogs, and humans tucked in for the night.

Hopefully nothing bad happens there Barbara. Stay safe.

Thanks Luis. Same to you.

[aspen]

The next 24 hours will be critical. Whatever Grace does, and whatever recon finds, will seal its fate. Either it ends up like Fred, gets north of the islands and becomes a big problem, or it survives the trek through the islands like Laura.

I hope we get clear answers by the end of the day tomorrow because this storm makes me wanna pull my hair out. However, I just got a haircut, so I don’t have much hair to pull out anyways.

[gatorcane]

You can see in this WV loop how the clockwise upper-level (anticyclonic) flow building over Fred and it is this flow that should cause some problems for Grace should she not behave and head into the Bahamas:

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like that southern blob is starting to die out

[storminabox]

This storms appearance has really deteriorated since this morning. Now it’s showing it’s true colors unlike earlier today.

[captainbarbossa19]

You can see in this WV loop how the clockwise upper-level (anticyclonic) flow building over Fred and it is this flow that should cause some problems for Grace should she not behave and head into the Bahamas:

https://i.postimg.cc/hG802zqM/goes16-wv-mid-watl.gif

The only problem is that if Grace finds a way into the Gulf, conditions could be super favorable. If she goes north of Hispaniola, she may encounter shear initially, but it will probably not be enough to stop her from getting into the Gulf.

[Kohlecane]

Don't follow blob of convection... But IR seems to have jogged SW for a frame towards the end in my view, then again is this even real lol

[AutoPenalti]

This storms appearance has really deteriorated since this morning. Now it’s showing it’s true colors unlike earlier today.

It should pick up during DMAX.