ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT22 KNES 142350
TCSNTL

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 14/2330Z

C. 16.4N

D. 60.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND
PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 3.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[HurricaneFrances04]

Center looks to me looks like it's passing over Guadeloupe

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

Interesting. Looks like the NHC went with that as the center for the 8 pm advisory.

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 61.5W

[jaxfladude]

Wouldn't rule out Grace staying weaker initially and tracking south of Cuba (remember Laura?). Lots of track uncertainty depending on how well Grace organizes over the next 24-36 hrs. Grace will be a problem. Wish I could just issue a 5-day forecast like the NHC vs. a 7-day.

Now time to pay attention!!!!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Center looks to me looks like it's passing over Guadeloupe

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

Interesting. Looks like the NHC went with that as the center for the 8 pm advisory.

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 61.5W

[AtlanticWind]

They dont adjust the cone at intermediate advisories, I would expect adjustment to the north with the relocation
of center on 11pm advisory

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

They dont adjust the cone at intermediate advisories, I would expect adjustment to the north with the relocation
of center on 11pm advisory

I am a bit confused with all that’s going on, sorry. When they do that, would we expect a track more to the south or more to the north, and would this increase or decrease the “risk of death by Hispaniola?” Thanks

[Kohlecane]

They dont adjust the cone at intermediate advisories, I would expect adjustment to the north with the relocation
of center on 11pm advisory

I am a bit confused with all that’s going on, sorry. When they do that, would we expect a track more to the south or more to the north, and would this increase or decrease the “risk of death by Hispaniola?” Thanks

I think they just fixed it's position at 8 and added more watches and warnings to the 5 o'clock cone

[skyline385]

They dont adjust the cone at intermediate advisories, I would expect adjustment to the north with the relocation
of center on 11pm advisory

They actually did adjust the cone, moved the center north for 8pm.
You can compare 6 and 6a here

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

Whenever they update the cone, the graphic will have the time of advisory. If they dont adjust the cone, the graphic for a 8pm advisory would say 5pm on it.

[AxaltaRacing24]

They dont adjust the cone at intermediate advisories, I would expect adjustment to the north with the relocation
of center on 11pm advisory

The static cone makes it obvious that the center is north of what we expected this evening.

[HurricaneFrances04]

They dont adjust the cone at intermediate advisories, I would expect adjustment to the north with the relocation
of center on 11pm advisory

They actually did adjust the cone, moved the center north for 8pm.
You can compare 6 and 6a here

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

The only thing that changed was the center position. The cone only changes with the forecast advisories which are issued at 5 am/pm and 11 am/pm.

[Blown Away]

My rough estimate.

[skyline385]

They dont adjust the cone at intermediate advisories, I would expect adjustment to the north with the relocation
of center on 11pm advisory

They actually did adjust the cone, moved the center north for 8pm.
You can compare 6 and 6a here

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

The only thing that changed was the center position. The cone only changes with the forecast advisories which are issued at 5 am/pm and 11 am/pm.

And that is what the original post suggested as well, that the NHC updated the center and which is exactly what I said as well...

[skyline385]

HWRF 18Z has it crossing the keys into the Gulf as a Cat2/3 although the HWRF hasnt been really good this year imo. Its been overly bullish on all systems so far, just like it was some years ago...

[Kohlecane]

They dont adjust the cone at intermediate advisories, I would expect adjustment to the north with the relocation
of center on 11pm advisory

They actually did adjust the cone, moved the center north for 8pm.
You can compare 6 and 6a here

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

Whenever they update the cone, the graphic will have the time of advisory. If they dont adjust the cone, the graphic for a 8pm advisory would say 5pm on it.

The only difference I see is that dip at the very beginning otherwise its fixed on the same spots

[AtlanticWind]

They actually did adjust the cone, moved the center north for 8pm.
You can compare 6 and 6a here

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

The only thing that changed was the center position. The cone only changes with the forecast advisories which are issued at 5 am/pm and 11 am/pm.

And that is what the original post suggested as well, that the NHC updated the center and which is exactly what I said as well...

They just adjust the storm position, they dont change the forecast positions .

[Blown Away]

NHC says due W at 8pm and IMO the convection is moving WNW-NW...

[AtlanticWind]

I think they will shift the forecast just slightly north at 11pm, will wait for the next model cycle to see what that shows.

[cycloneye]

3.5.

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 14/2330Z

C. 16.4N

D. 60.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND
PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 3.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[AutoPenalti]

I wonder if we can get ASCAT again, there’s a chance there might be another vorticity on that southern lobe that seems to be developing...