ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

The old MLC appears to be moving ..... south. Meanwhile I can clearly see what appears to be low level inflow coming into it from the southwest. Not exactly what one would expect to see while anticipating LLC reformation roughly 200 miles to the northwest of that point. Just sayin'

[Nimbus]

If you look closely at the western tip of Cuba you can see that in the last few hours the low level clouds on the south side are heading east and to the north they are heading west. Seems to be an oblong area of turning. I think this is the place to look for reformation.

Low level clouds are rotating around the hot tower near the official center just north of the western tip of Cuba.
Been watching outflow boundaries from collapsing thunderstorms further west but convection could persist where its bursting now.

[xironman]

You have to wonder what recon is looking for.

[AlphaToOmega]

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on the
Remnants of Fred which are expected to re-generate into a tropical
cyclone over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. A small area of low pressure associated with disorganized showers
and thunderstorms has developed more than 200 miles north-northeast
of Bermuda. Some gradual development is possible over this weekend
into early next week as this system drifts slowly southward near
Bermuda over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[blp]

Still very broad but I see the new developing center below. This is the southern Mlc we saw earlier that finally is off the coast. Let see if it takes over.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

[SunnyThoughts]

No positive about where the center is, but that sat view above shows some lightning going on...don't look forward to even a minimal TS here. So much rain lately, wouldn't take much to knock down some trees onto power lines. Losing power in the heat..not much fun. Guess we should count our blessings thats probably the worse aspect we have looking forward.

[johngaltfla]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Still very broad but I see the new developing center below. This is the southern Mlc we saw earlier that finally is off the coast. Let see if it takes over.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

https://i.ibb.co/0nNqv0b/Capture1.png

I think it is here looking at the latest sat.

[ScottNAtlanta]

FYI...has anyone noticed that the NHC track for Fred is almost the identical path of Frederick 1979???

From the Frederick wiki page

The tropical cyclone nearly dissipated over Cuba before redeveloping on September 9 near the Isle of Youth. From then on, Frederic moved northwestward, intensifying to its peak intensity in the Gulf of Mexico with winds of 130 mph (210 km/h) on September 12, shortly before making landfall at Dauphin Island, Alabama just below the state line between Alabama and Mississippi. Over the United States, Frederic weakened for a final time before becoming extratropical in Pennsylvania on September 14 and dissipating the next day.

track

[Jr0d]

We have been getting some gusts in Key West all day. Between squalls for the moments, but while out on the docks I was surprised by the wind gusts w/o any rain.

I think the Keys area might be in for a surprisingly windy morning tomorrow.

[eastcoastFL]

Still very broad but I see the new developing center below. This is the southern Mlc we saw earlier that finally is off the coast. Let see if it takes over.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

https://i.ibb.co/0nNqv0b/Capture1.png

I think it is here looking at the latest sat.

https://i.imgur.com/MRYWNu1.png

I’m enjoying this game of pin the center on the blob.

[eastcoastFL]

We have been getting some gusts in Key West all day. Between squalls for the moments, but while out on the docks I was surprised by the wind gusts w/o any rain.

I think the Keys area might be in for a surprisingly windy morning tomorrow.

How about rain? Last night was just brutal up this way. Some of the worst storms I’ve seen in a long time. Had my dog walking in circles all night.

[BobHarlem]

Some nasty stuff along the Southwest tonight, also posting loop for the novelty of the start of Fred's forecast track purple line being so close to the end of Grace's forecast line.

[toad strangler]

This time next year, Remnant Fred will still be floating around western Cuba

[Jr0d]

We have been getting some gusts in Key West all day. Between squalls for the moments, but while out on the docks I was surprised by the wind gusts w/o any rain.

I think the Keys area might be in for a surprisingly windy morning tomorrow.

How about rain? Last night was just brutal up this way. Some of the worst storms I’ve seen in a long time. Had my dog walking in circles all night.

Not a significant amount of rain, it does not take much to flood low lying areas in Key West but so far so good with no significant flooding issues.

The latest from the Key West airport is winds from the SE@ 28mph, gusting to 43 mph. Earlier we had recorded gusts of 45mph.

Just making an educated by amateur guess, we will have some higher winds from now until late Sunday.

[tropicwatch]

Some nasty stuff along the Southwest tonight, also posting loop for the novelty of the start of Fred's forecast track purple line being so close to the end of Grace's forecast line.

https://i.imgur.com/hnvtwza.gif

It does appear to be wrapping up nicely tonight.

[Steve]

Been out the loop, but I’m finding myself wishing I was in the ‘Cola this weekend and first half the week. Shouldn’t be all that extreme of a system, but if it was bigger and wetter and slowing out and intensifying or maintaining near landfall, the eastern side could still be packing a punch with gales and some heavy rainfall rates to the north and east of the center. I always like those kinds of tropical storms where you can be in the right spot to get hours of feeder bands without hurricane conditions.

[stormhunter7]

In Shortwave IR imagery... See what looks like the center forming. It's not moving nw... Almost looks stationary or maybe a SW jog. 23.9n 84w ish.

[Frank P]

In Shortwave IR imagery... See what looks like the center forming. It's not moving nw... Almost looks stationary or maybe a SW jog. 23.9n 84w ish.

Looks like a small hot tower just fired off near the center in the IR loop too.