ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

So basically NHC disco ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

...what’s more is that the actual convection and MLC is moving WNW, so I’m beginning to think as the LLC races westward, it will likely weaken and a new one might form further north as the main MLC slows down.

[wxman57]

Kind of reminds me of Erika in 2015. Was forecast to strengthen, had a lot of model support, even at one point was forecast to hit Florida as a hurricane but never got stacked, was moving very fast which inhibited it and ended up dissipating over Hispaniola.

With Wxman57 bullish on this one, someone has to give a bearish perspective.

The NHC shifted their track to right over my morning track, but I had it dissipating over Cuba. Go figure. They mention possible dissipation over Cuba in their discussion, as I've been mentioning. Not so sure that will happen. I suspect we'll see some major model shifts this evening (southward).

[Blinhart]

Kind of reminds me of Erika in 2015. Was forecast to strengthen, had a lot of model support, even at one point was forecast to hit Florida as a hurricane but never got stacked, was moving very fast which inhibited it and ended up dissipating over Hispaniola.

With Wxman57 bullish on this one, someone has to give a bearish perspective.

The NHC shifted their track to right over my morning track, but I had it dissipating over Cuba. Go figure. They mention possible dissipation over Cuba in their discussion, as I've been mentioning. Not so sure that will happen. I suspect we'll see some major model shifts this evening (southward).

So should see the GoM companies start evacuating their platforms by Thursday by what you are saying, since that is what you get paid for.

[sma10]

So basically NHC disco ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

...what’s more is that the actual convection and MLC is moving WNW, so I’m beginning to think as the LLC races westward, it will likely weaken and a new one might form further north as the main MLC slows down.

In a nutshell, they are saying we think there is a very weak, small surface circulation racing towards the west, and if it remains the main coc for Grace, then here is your forecast. Otherwise, stay tuned ....

[aspen]

We desperately need recon to go through the main convective blobs to see if the LLC is actually located in there. If it is, then even more track adjustments are needed. If the center consolidates closer to 15.5-16.0N like recon kinda suggested, Grace might end up as a Caribbean Cruiser.

[ConvergenceZone]

So now that it's weaker than originally thought, it may move more southernly and avoid the shredder all together and move right through the carib into the gulf...

[IcyTundra]

Grace's situation in the Caribbean kind of reminds me of Laura in the Caribbean last year. Center further south than originally expected and the track was expected to go north of the islands only for the track to slowly shift south. At this same longitude Laura was 1 degree further North.

[chaser1]

So now that it's weaker than originally thought, it may move more southernly and avoid the shredder all together and move right through the carib into the gulf...

Or....... it moving a bit more southerly suggesting that it may too track directly into the shredder

[chaser1]

Most unsure nhc discussion I have ever read

Exactly what I was thinking too

[AtlanticWind]

So now that it's weaker than originally thought, it may move more southernly and avoid the shredder all together and move right through the carib into the gulf...

Or....... it moving a bit more southerly suggesting that it may too track directly into the shredder

levi cowan actually showed on video a weaker storm may move more wnw in this situation

[HurricaneFrances04]

Center looks to me looks like it's passing over Guadeloupe

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

[InfernoFlameCat]

They should make a giant cone. It could do anything between going to the bahamas or hitting the Yucatan Peninsula

[InfernoFlameCat]

So now that it's weaker than originally thought, it may move more southernly and avoid the shredder all together and move right through the carib into the gulf...

Or....... it moving a bit more southerly suggesting that it may too track directly into the shredder

levi cowan actually showed on video a weaker storm may move more wnw in this situation

The stronger the storm, the more affected it will be by that ridge to its north. (Stronger=south) I agree

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1411547047346442243




Old tweet but just a reminder that a track south of Hispaniola/over Jamaica will likely have no affect on Grace.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like on IR the northern blob is turning NW a bit as the southern blob appeared... Odd

[ConvergenceZone]

So now that it's weaker than originally thought, it may move more southernly and avoid the shredder all together and move right through the carib into the gulf...

Or....... it moving a bit more southerly suggesting that it may too track directly into the shredder

I agree with wxman that the models will probably shift south quite a bit tonight and track this south of Cuba because of how weak it will be....

[toad strangler]

The 5PM NHC Cone center is right down the GA's pipe. It's certainly conceivable that Grace doesn't survive that kind of track.

[pgoss11]

The 5PM NHC Cone center is right down the GA's pipe. It's certainly conceivable that Grace doesn't survive that kind of track.

I think that track will likely change once we have a true center to actually track.

[Kohlecane]

Grace and its Blobs, I think a southerly track might be more in the making. Thinking it rides between the Peninsula and Jamaica.

[AtlanticWind]

could be wrong, but the convection is headed right for P.R. , I am going out on a limb but I think this is going to skirt and may remain just offshore of Hispanola.

Follow the Convection.