ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

https://i.imgur.com/OLX9YgM.jpg
Area of convergence

Yeah that is the area I having been watching for the past 30 minutes or so!

Same here. I think that's exactly where Fred makes his return. Hopefully runs out of room and time to get stronger than the NHC has it forecast to become. They are making a decision on schools for Monday, around noon tomorrow for Escambia, Santa Rosa counties here in NW Fla.

What I don’t see is much northerly component with that blob we are watching… still looks either w or WNW..and might be a little left of the NHC forecast cone?

[Nimbus]

Outflow boundary just blew out from the western most thunderstorms.
Very broad shallow area of low pressure but if there are no competing vorts there is potential for regeneration.
When persistent convection forms under the building high pressure it should be investigated.
This surprised me a little coming off Honduras and spinning up in about 6 hours but there is such a broad area spinning around out there now, it should take longer.

[chaser1]

As I take a broader look at Derf (scrambled remnants of Fred), I just don't believe that any reorganization is apt to occur until the sum of it's broken pieces (mid level vorticity south of Cuba & broad surface low over W. Cuba), begrudgingly filter toward the NNW. The NHC 11:00 a.m. discussion suggests a track to near Mobile on Monday evening but I don't see the low level and mid level remnants showing any clear motion or necessarily responding to the same steering level flow. The way I see it is maybe some weak semblance of organized development might occur on approach to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday/Wednesday where low end Tropical Storm conditions could occur.

[ObsessedMiami]

Whoever called the Miami rainfall forecast a bust a few pages back was dead on. Today was forecast to be 1-3 inches 90% and in West Kendall I haven’t seen any rain today. Just breezy overcast. Looks like the west coast got it all

[rolltide]

If you look closely at the western tip of Cuba you can see that in the last few hours the low level clouds on the south side are heading east and to the north they are heading west. Seems to be an oblong area of turning. I think this is the place to look for reformation.

[tolakram]

Wider loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-natcolor-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[blp]

I think this is where the new center is forming. Run the loop at 100 frames. Good rotation and most amount of convection.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBYX2/loop.html

[Jr0d]

If you look closely at the western tip of Cuba you can see that in the last few hours the low level clouds on the south side are heading east and to the north they are heading west. Seems to be an oblong area of turning. I think this is the place to look for reformation.

Definitely some western component to the low level clouds around the tip of Cuba.

Maybe Fred is finally pulling himself together.

[Frank P]

Wider loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-natcolor-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

That view hints of rotation to me, might broad and/or elongated though at best

[Jr0d]

I think this is where the new center is forming. Run the loop at 100 frames. Good rotation and most amount of convection.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBYX2/loop.html

https://i.ibb.co/M9m9KLg/Screenshot-20210814-151809-Chrome.jpg

Earlier this morning, I was thinking that area was a good candidate for a center relocation. Now I'm thinking the area Tolakram marked, between Cuba and the Dry Tortuga's is the most likely.

There apoears a MLC rotation near Cienfuegos and this morning Cuba's radar was showing a low level vortex just offshore.

While it's not the best radar, it helps:
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

What we may be seeing is multiple vorticities popping up which is common with a tropical wave on the verge of becoming na depression or storm.

[Frank P]

I think this is where the new center is forming. Run the loop at 100 frames. Good rotation and most amount of convection.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBYX2/loop.html

https://i.ibb.co/M9m9KLg/Screenshot-20210814-151809-Chrome.jpg

Go back and look at frames 22 thru 57 and that convection area also looks to be rotating before it gets out of range… that’s the area north of western end of Cuba

[tropicwatch]

Whatever Fred is doing, there is almost more convection over water than there is Cuba today

[Frank P]

I think he continues to track to the west to WNW as the 18z early model guidance has shift west again with the consensus near MS/AL line. Map posted in model page and here to indicate they are also initiating the runs basically in the general area we have been discussing as the possible LLC developing

[chaser1]

Nope, just not seeing it. Lots of now-term points to consider where some LLC might be trying but way too much against any of them from reasonably occurring in the next 24 hr's. I just can't see a T.D. developing north of 24N given the ripping westerly shear right now. Certainly not within the heaviest convection further south inland over S. Cuba. The area close to Isle of Youth has less convection but is south of the worse upper level shear. Biggest problem though is that there's not enough of a surface pressure gradient with broadly lower pressures extending north and south of Cuba with some low level convergence trying to feed into the remnant LLC perhaps just north of W. Cuba as well as perhaps feeding into South/Central Cuba where the persistent convection is. "Some" LLC need become dominant for a COC to even try to coalesce. That's not going to occur in an environment of shearing tops nor is it gonna occur over land either. Fred is like an "old lover" back when you were young and immature. To infatuated to want to leave, but just too toxic of a relationship for it to ever work out

[CDO62]

Looking at this radar, there sure seems to be a large broad area of spin just North of West Cuba.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Frank P]

He’s taking his sweet time but he looks to be slowly trying to organize now..he looks much better now than the previous 24 hours, but still kinda ugly..

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/3CsZfNKbjGc[/youtube]

[tropicwatch]

The NHC put the remnants of Fred a little further north and west then I was expecting. HH on the way to check it out.

[HeeBGBz]

https://i.imgur.com/OLX9YgM.jpg
Area of convergence

Yeah that is the area I having been watching for the past 30 minutes or so!

Those clouds are rolling. This piece is not dead. Something looks about to burst.

[3090]

Wondering if Louisiana is once again, seemingly, the bullseye this season?