ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Woofde]

I tried to combine the latest radar and IR shots into one image. It's a little rough but it kinda shows the internals.

[wxman57]

I'm afraid Grace is not going to be destroyed by Bahamas shear. Hurricane north-central Gulf next Saturday.

[tolakram]

I tried to combine the latest radar and IR shots into one image. It's a little rough but it kinda shows the internals.

https://imgur.com/a/6K0ikgY

In imgur either use the direct link with IMG tags (the best) or the imgur link with top image link URL.

[NevadaFan18]

I'm afraid Grace is not going to be destroyed by Bahamas shear. Hurricane north-central Gulf next Saturday.

Woah woah, a bullish post from wxman??

[gatorcane]

Haiti just had a 7.1 earthquake, with likely significant loss of lives.

I pray Grace misses Haiti, the landslides and wind a few days after a major earthquake would be even more horrible.

I feel for those people. Some years it seems Hispaniola is a cyclone magnet. If it were not for Hispaniola and Cuba, Florida would be getting hit with alot more intense hurricanes, that is for sure.

[wzrgirl1]

I'm afraid Grace is not going to be destroyed by Bahamas shear. Hurricane north-central Gulf next Saturday.

Will Grace avoid Florida entirely in your opinion?

[tropicwatch]

There's not a lot of mid-level rotation, but convection is vigorous at the moment.

https://i.imgur.com/FZESyoU.gif

That image gives it an eery glow.

[ScottNAtlanta]

High-resolution visible imagery indicates outflow boundaries in the eastern semicircle, so Grace is almost certainly less organised than it appears to be.

What you are seeing is collapsing boundaries from T-storms and dryer air, but it is moving into a moister environment so that is not that big of a deal. Also, according to CIMSS analysis shear is also decreasing in front of this

[Evenstar]

I'm afraid Grace is not going to be destroyed by Bahamas shear. Hurricane north-central Gulf next Saturday.

I know we aren't supposed to just drop stupid stuff in the middle of our discussions, but Hell hath frozen over.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm afraid Grace is not going to be destroyed by Bahamas shear. Hurricane north-central Gulf next Saturday.

I think this is the first one you've been bullish on this season

[gatorcane]

I'm afraid Grace is not going to be destroyed by Bahamas shear. Hurricane north-central Gulf next Saturday.

I think this is the first one you've been bullish on this season

Models do suggest better upper-level winds if she can make it into the Gulf in tact without being disrupted by islands. Reasonable forecast if you ask me.

[Jr0d]

I'm afraid Grace is not going to be destroyed by Bahamas shear. Hurricane north-central Gulf next Saturday.

Woah woah, a bullish post from wxman??

Wow!

This is not good. Really not good. The only good is I might get a storm day or two next week.

That said, with the earthquake that just hit Haiti, I really hope Grace stays north(or south) of the area. While going through the shredder of Hispaniola would be great for me and the rest of South Florida's interests, we have the infrastructure to handle a major hurricane without significant loss of life; Haiti does not, especially after a major earthquake.

[psyclone]

Grace looks "blobby" and unhealthy at the moment but it is a spark at a time of year where struggling systems survive until they find a pocket of favorability and they just flourish. I suspect that will eventually happen here. Not all saplings become big trees but some do and the latter half of August is getting to the time of year where the sequoias grow. Not a time to freak out but no longer a time to be dismissive as a default either.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I didn't realize until just now there was a 7.2 in Haiti TODAY. My God if you live there what you must be thinking now. Unimaginable. This is not the Grace they need.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it's all going to come down to whether or not Grace can avoid the mountains of the islands..If it can, then a hurricane is very possible, otherwise a Fred scenario is more possible. ...and as we know, stronger storms tend to get pulled more northward and if this is strengthening(which it looks like it is) then I wouldn't be surprised if they shift the track a bit more North over time...

[Woofde]

I tried to combine the latest radar and IR shots into one image. It's a little rough but it kinda shows the internals.

https://imgur.com/a/6K0ikgY

In imgur either use the direct link with IMG tags (the best) or the imgur link with top image link URL.

I'm trying, but can't seem to figure it out. Do you have a picture of an example where it's done properly? When I put the link between the tags it just sits there without embedding.
Nevermind I think i got it. I had to use the link with the actual .png at the end.

[ElectricStorm]

With as quickly as it's moving, it's going to have to turn north very soon if it wants to avoid most of the islands. Also, could a stronger Fred create more shear over Grace? I'm kinda thinking Fred might be stronger than a lot of people think. Regardless, if this gets into the gulf it's probably going to get pretty strong

[Ubuntwo]

Recon finds the center further south than estimated. Below 15.9N. Pressure <1013 but does not appear to be as deep as the NHC's 1005mb.

[ScottNAtlanta]

With as quickly as it's moving, it's going to have to turn north very soon if it wants to avoid most of the islands. Also, could a stronger Fred create more shear over Grace? I'm kinda thinking Fred might be stronger than a lot of people think. Regardless, if this gets into the gulf it's probably going to get pretty strong

Not shear exactly, but it could influence direction

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon finds the center further south than estimated. Below 15.9N. Pressure <1013 but does not appear to be as deep as the NHC's 1005mb.

The background state is 1021mb That is pretty high, and they have not found the center yet