ATL: GRACE - Models

[Cat5James]

Yep. It is hugging the coastline. This is going to be an interesting run.

This run seems realistic based off the steering currents I'm seeing.... unfortunate run for Puerto Rico.

The GFS shows very little deepening until landfall in South Florida, given that it shows a sharp TUTT axis just to the west of Grace. Time is of the essence...

Still a strong TS by the time it reaches the Keys… and intensity forecasts are FAR from perfect 5 days out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS looks like a loaded gun primed in the GOMEX through 150 hours.

[Category5Kaiju]

Run's not done yet, but the GFS shows Grace entering the sweltering Gulf of Mexico and is currently at 977 mbar after some pretty decent strengthening there. I am curious to see what this entire run will show, but as of now I have a feeling it won't be pretty.

[Kohlecane]

well GFS has a Major in to GOM

[captainbarbossa19]

Run's not done yet, but the GFS shows Grace entering the sweltering Gulf of Mexico and is currently at 977 mbar after some pretty decent strengthening there. I am curious to see what this entire run will show, but as of now I have a feeling it won't be pretty.

961 mb at hour 174.

[SFLcane]

SFL storm then into the gulf

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Trend with the GFS for the current hour. The GFS has consistently been underestimating the real-time intensity of Grace, which is resulting in a stronger system than expected.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS looks to have Galveston to Lake Charles in its sites.


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[Shell Mound]

Trend with the GFS for the current hour. The GFS has consistently been underestimating the real-time intensity of Grace, which is resulting in a stronger system than expected.

https://i.imgur.com/ZbX8oYL.gif

The fact that the GFS is trending toward a weaker Fred could also result in somewhat lower vertical wind shear as Grace passes through the northeastern Caribbean.

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS looks to have Galveston to Lake Charles in its sites.


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Not again! Man we cannot catch a break. I hope this run is just off.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS looks to have Galveston to Lake Charles in its sites.


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Not again! Man we cannot catch a break. I hope this run is just off.

Actually looking again, it may go further Southwest.


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[captainbarbossa19]

GFS looks to have Galveston to Lake Charles in its sites.


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Not again! Man we cannot catch a break. I hope this run is just off.

Actually looking again, it may go further Southwest.


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Regardless, this is too close for comfort.

[SouthFLTropics]

That’s one heck of a ridge… she just keeps plugging away straight west.


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[aspen]

GFS has a fast-moving Cat 3/4 heading into southern Texas. If this solution were to verify, the upside is that at least it’ll be moving quickly and not have a ton of time for prolonged impacts, unlike a certain August Texas major.

[Ubuntwo]

Trend with the GFS for the current hour. The GFS has consistently been underestimating the real-time intensity of Grace, which is resulting in a stronger system than expected.

https://i.imgur.com/ZbX8oYL.gif

The fact that the GFS is trending toward a weaker Fred could also result in somewhat lower vertical wind shear as Grace passes through the northeastern Caribbean.

This run has Fred stronger than the past half dozen runs at least, so there's probably more to it that that. If Grace is already a well-developed TC w/ an ULAC on entry to the gulf, Fred related shear will probably not make a difference.

[Category5Kaiju]

951 mbar...

[Kohlecane]

Honest question? Huge shift in GFS from 6Z is this due to Fred. Just trying to figure out how such a dramatic shift from riding the W of FL into the SE to now Due west in the GOM

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking like a major into Corpus Christi… 946MB


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[SouthFLTropics]

Through 96 hours the CMC is stronger and more NE than the 00z run.


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[SoupBone]

Well that GFS run will wake up a few people. Heading to Corpus Christi.