ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[lafaa]

Grace going to pass through Hebert Box, which is normally not great news for PR, Bahamas, and SFL. Fortunately for now it seems Grace won’t be to strong.

What’s the deal with this Herbert Box? Is it a region where storms are prone to RI, or the future track of the system is determined?

The Hebert Boxes are just regions that major hurricanes that impact Florida often enter.

There is also a common misconception that any storm that passes through a Herbert box has an increased chance of hitting Florida. In reality, the storm must be a strong hurricane before passing through the box to be an increased risk to Florida. Dorian, for example, passed through the Herbert box as a TS, not as a hurricane.

[SconnieCane]

There is also a common misconception that any storm that passes through a Herbert box has an increased chance of hitting Florida. In reality, the storm must be a strong hurricane before passing through the box to be an increased risk to Florida. Dorian, for example, passed through the Herbert box as a TS, not as a hurricane.

"Hebert" boxes. No R.

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[toad strangler]

Grace going to pass through Hebert Box, which is normally not great news for PR, Bahamas, and SFL. Fortunately for now it seems Grace won’t be to strong.

What’s the deal with this Herbert Box? Is it a region where storms are prone to RI, or the future track of the system is determined?

Hebert's boxes are used to gauge the higher probability that a Hurricane (especially Majors) will strike SOUTH FL.

[Category5Kaiju]

Maria, Andrew, and the 1935 Hurricane are also notorious examples of hurricanes that violated the Hebert Box principle. Maria passed through as a Cat 5 but recurved well off to sea while Andrew and 1935 Hurricane missed that box but still made Cat 5 landfalls on Florida

[aspen]

Miss Piggy is about to take off and head to Grace.

[Kohlecane]

Structure looking very good on the IR as opposed to 5 hours ago, also seems to have picked up a little speed IMO, although that might be my eyes tricking me as I remember someone mentioning that there might have been a jump west with the LLC/MLC

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2414/FDClgK.gif

Looks like there is a littttle bit of spin in the last few frames? Or my eyes messing around?

[Jr0d]

I am becoming increasingly interested in this, as it may head my way. As is the case with the majority of systems that could threaten south Florida from the east, the big unknown is what potential impact the Greater Antilles will have.

My 'gut' and early guess is this will stay north of me in Key West, but has some potential to be the first significant hurricane threat this season.

[Kohlecane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2414/FDClgK.gif

Nice banding features beginning to develop, some shere to the north but looks stable where it is now and where it is headed over the next 12 hours

[Stormybajan]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2414/FDClgK.gif

Looks like Guadeloupe, Montserrat, St.Kitts & Nevis, Antigua & Barbuda are in for some serious rain with Grace

[USVIKimmie]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2414/FDClgK.gif

Looks like there is a littttle bit of spin in the last few frames? Or my eyes messing around?

You're not wrong. Needless to say, bugging out is now on the table for me. Bajans - stay safe.

[Iceresistance]

Grace is a little stronger

11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 14
Location: 16.2°N 57.9°W
Moving: W at 23 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

The CDO is impressive as a weak tropical storm . . .

[Shell Mound]

Slightly off topic, but a 7.2 magnitude earthquake just struck the Haitian peninsula. Stronger than the 2010 earthquake. I'm hoping Grace stays away from Haiti - it's the last thing they need right now.

Poor Haiti can't catch a break

Unfortunately, the latest news does not seem auspicious. Given Grace’s rapid movement it is likely to continue generally westward toward Hispaniola.

[Cat5James]

Slightly off topic, but a 7.2 magnitude earthquake just struck the Haitian peninsula. Stronger than the 2010 earthquake. I'm hoping Grace stays away from Haiti - it's the last thing they need right now.

Poor Haiti can't catch a break

Unfortunately, the latest news does not seem auspicious. Given Grace’s rapid movement it is likely to continue generally westward toward Hispaniola.

Steering currents are not directly westward... there is enough of a northward component that Grace could just scrape Hispanola or miss entirely

[Shell Mound]

Poor Haiti can't catch a break

Unfortunately, the latest news does not seem auspicious. Given Grace’s rapid movement it is likely to continue generally westward toward Hispaniola.

Steering is not directly westward... it is wnw.

The mid-level easterly shear is likely to continue to displace the MLC to the west of the LLC and also prevent the LLC from assuming a WNW component.

[Cat5James]

Unfortunately, the latest news does not seem auspicious. Given Grace’s rapid movement it is likely to continue generally westward toward Hispaniola.

Steering is not directly westward... it is wnw.

The mid-level easterly shear is likely to continue to displace the MLC to the west of the LLC and also prevent the LLC from assuming a WNW component.

Perhaps, however if Grace manages to continue to strengthen over the next 24-36 hours there is a better chance that it does in fact take a more WNW path... wait and see.

[NotSparta]

Unfortunately, the latest news does not seem auspicious. Given Grace’s rapid movement it is likely to continue generally westward toward Hispaniola.

Steering is not directly westward... it is wnw.

The mid-level easterly shear is likely to continue to displace the MLC to the west of the LLC and also prevent the LLC from assuming a WNW component.

There is no easterly mid level shear, looks like it's SW now

[Shell Mound]

Steering is not directly westward... it is wnw.

The mid-level easterly shear is likely to continue to displace the MLC to the west of the LLC and also prevent the LLC from assuming a WNW component.

Perhaps, however if Grace manages to continue to strengthen over the next 24-36 hours there is a better chance that it does in fact take a more WNW path... wait and see.

Personally, I don’t think that Grace is actually intensifying much, if at all. Structurally it is stagnant, and structure is more important than convection, at least in this case. Currently Grace has very little outflow, and the convection is clearly to the west of the LLC, as is the MLC. As Grace interacts with Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic, orographic lift associated with mountainous terrain will combine with easterly shear to prevent the LLC from assuming a WNW component. Instead, the MLC and the convection will remain to the west and south of the LLC and instead “drag” the LLC farther west and even south of due west, similarly to Fred. Unfortunately, I think the very high PWATs may work to offset Grace’s fast motion and still result in locally prolific rainfall over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This would also affect areas recently impacted by the latest earthquake.

[Cat5James]

The mid-level easterly shear is likely to continue to displace the MLC to the west of the LLC and also prevent the LLC from assuming a WNW component.

Perhaps, however if Grace manages to continue to strengthen over the next 24-36 hours there is a better chance that it does in fact take a more WNW path... wait and see.

Personally, I don’t think that Grace is actually intensifying much, if at all. Structurally it is stagnant, and structure is more important than convection, at least in this case. Currently Grace has very little outflow, and the convection is clearly to the west of the LLC, as is the MLC. As Grace interacts with Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic, orographic lift associated with mountainous terrain will combine with easterly shear to prevent the LLC from assuming a WNW component. Instead, the MLC and the convection will remain to the west and south of the LLC and instead “drag” the LLC farther west and even south of due west, similarly to Fred. Unfortunately, I think the very high PWATs may work to offset Grace’s fast motion and still result in locally prolific rainfall over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This would also affect areas recently impacted by the latest earthquake.

Grace is already slowly gaining latitude, and it remains to be seen whether it continues to do so.