wwizard wrote:Jr0d wrote:MGC wrote:11AM advisory should stick a fork in Fred. Might regenerate but there is no TC there......MGC
Wxman57 explained it would be to confusing to downgrade to PTC only to upgrade Fred later when it's predicted to regain a center.
In my amateur opinion, Fred has not been a cyclone for a good 36 hours.
That's why there's TV weather guys going 24/7 to explain that stuff. I think it does more harm to the public to classify as something it isn't, it being somewhat of a dud, and people not trusting what they say about the next system that comes long being classified the same, actually being that, and packing more punch.
I think there's real merit to your point. Granted.... the "public" in this case were primarily those in S. Florida listening to the increasing drum-beat of a potential T.S. (or minimal hurricane) to approach this weekend. Can't blame NHC for Fred's unexpected "Pike's Peak" tour of the Dominican Republic Alps though, but I do believe NHC was overly bullish on redevelopment when it became fairly clear that no coherent COC remained. That resulted in continued advisories during a span of time that many were playing "where's Waldo" to find a coherent COC. Even at the risk of diminished storm track continuity, I think "time of death" should have been established soon after daylight verified that the mountains of Hispaniola were still there, but with only shards of Fred scattered north, south, east and west of the Island. The good news is that those in S. Florida were not raiding stores or throwing up shutters, so no harm-no foul. Still, I do think there is a cumulative risk from Watches and Warnings raised over time (especially involving weak, borderline, or sub-tropical T.S. events) where an increasing population fail to experience those expected severe weather conditions they are told to take heed of.
