ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StPeteMike]

What’s the steering currents like right now for the area Fred is in? Seems like he’s just meandering around with nowhere to go and wondering what possibly could start forcing him more north since it doesn’t seem like the strength and position of the High is being much of an influence at the moment.

I believe Thursday night, Fred was forecasted to be passing west of the Naples by 8 am today. Clearly, no way will he be doing so. Just thinking of he could sit there in the Caribbean for a whole day and maybe ponder about life and where to go from here. (Little sarcasm)

[Jr0d]

In my amateur opinion the center is trying to reform south with the convection. ASCAT, satellite and radar data all seem to support this.

Since this area is a bit further east l, it really makes it interesting to guess what's next.and where the north turn will happen. If the new center consolidated and crossed over the lower areas of Cuba, intensity could be greatly underestimated. If it crosses over high terrain, something Fred seems to be prone to,, then it may struggle to regain storm status.

[Hurricaneman]

At least we aren't going to have to worry about Fred being a hurricane. A few days ago I was thinking differently....

Wouldn’t say that yet especially if this reformed much further south

[ConvergenceZone]

At least we aren't going to have to worry about Fred being a hurricane. A few days ago I was thinking differently....

Wouldn’t say that yet especially if this reformed much further south

Okay,, so I'd give it a 1% chance, but I'm just being realistic as the HMON model is completely bogus....

[galaxy401]

If it does reform that farther south, is it even Fred anymore or a separate system? I can't identify the original center of Fred anyways.

[AtlanticWind]

Fred seems to going down to carribean, He must be looking for Wilma

[toad strangler]

Fred seems to going down to carribean, He must be looking for Wilma

Wrong time of year. Fred was never too bright.

[drezee]

Where is Bones? We need to call it...time of death 6z...

[eastcoastFL]

If it does reform that farther south, is it even Fred anymore or a separate system? I can't identify the original center of Fred anyways.

Isn’t this blob to the south what was left of Fred’s convection when it got separated over Hispaniola? I recall that blob drifting SW as the LLC ran off to the west.

[eastcoastFL]

Not a peep about the new ASCAT showing a center south of Cuba….The weirdness continues

2am disco
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
to the west-northwest is expected to occur later this morning,
followed by a northwest motion by tonight. On the forecast track,
Fred is expected to pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys this
afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Sunday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again by tonight.

[eastcoastFL]

[Teban54]

I don't see anything at where the NHC has the center, TBH.

[Hurricaneman]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/92537121.gif?0.08056996519551951

I’d put a possible new center of Fred at 80.2w 20.2N in the new convective hot tower

[eastcoastFL]

I don't see anything at where the NHC has the center, TBH.

It’s hard to tell on IR but I see nothing as well. All of the action as south of the island.

[eastcoastFL]

There’s even some banding features and something similar to outflow coming from the southern feature.

[SapphireSea]

There’s even some banding features and something similar to outflow coming from the southern feature.

I don't see much outflow other than what seems to be individual boundaries. I'd look at this as more of a wave 20N to 23N. Convection could be related to backbuild of earlier land convection interacting with instability. It's already waning directionally southward where new storms have popped.

[Sciencerocks]

Jim it is dead!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEYAS6TBV1k

[AxaltaRacing24]

I am too tired to even know what is going on with this storm anymore tonight.

[Jr0d]

Jim it is dead!!!
https://c.tenor.com/FLJm-T3TEK4AAAAC/mc-coy-hes-dead-jim.gif
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEYAS6TBV1k

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/165/9w1x2o.gif

Someone's going to be eating crow this weekend.

[Jr0d]

That said, THE NHC may declared Fred an open wave soon...that does not mean Fred is dead(without a chance of reviving) yet, just reforming further south which maybe verified when the HH gets there.

In my opinion Fred has been dead for the past 36 hours, but may be revived with a center relocation south of Cuba...