ATL: GRACE - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#261 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:02 pm

SFLcane wrote:Trend north away from islands continues. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/PJrWs0z4/B59-D4-EEF-3413-413-A-BA7-E-D3-D441-F72202.png


00z early TVCN lifted off Hispaniola and intensity models now showing hurricane late in the forecast.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#262 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:11 pm

Blown Away wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Trend north away from islands continues. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/PJrWs0z4/B59-D4-EEF-3413-413-A-BA7-E-D3-D441-F72202.png


00z early TVCN lifted off Hispaniola and intensity models now showing hurricane late in the forecast.


What intensity guidance are you looking at? Here is what I see. The HWRF is of course overdoing things and continues to be an extreme outlier. Consensus is a TS and note the Euro (not shown) and GFS (red line) show something very weak at the end of the period.

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#263 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Trend north away from islands continues. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/PJrWs0z4/B59-D4-EEF-3413-413-A-BA7-E-D3-D441-F72202.png


00z early TVCN lifted off Hispaniola and intensity models now showing hurricane late in the forecast.


What intensity guidance are you looking at? Here is what I see. The HWRF is of course overdoing things and continues to be an extreme outlier. Consensus is a TS and note the Euro (not shown) and GFS (red line) show something very weak at the end of the period.

https://i.postimg.cc/XqntrM08/07-L-intensity-00z.png


Compared to 18z the intensity is steady up towards hurricane intensity likely because the consensus moved off Hispaniola. Just a general observation.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#264 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Aug 13, 2021 10:55 pm

0Z ICON is very weak likely due to some interaction with the Greater Antillies what's left of TD 7 gets into the Gulf. 0Z GFS has TD 7 going through the spine of Hispanola.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#265 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:26 pm

The GFS shows what's left of TD7 entering the Gulf. There is also a huge anticyclone on top of it. :eek:
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#266 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:26 pm

Based on the 00z GFS, this one might at the very least do us the favor of not wasting a perfectly good name.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#267 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:29 pm

For what it’s worth, the CMC is coming in stronger on the north coast of PR in 48 hours.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#268 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:39 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Based on the 00z GFS, this one might at the very least do us the favor of not wasting a perfectly good name.

It'll get a name.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#269 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:39 pm

00z HWRF is running… I’m curious to see what kind of excitement it provides us with tonight.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#270 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:40 pm

CMC has a pretty solid cyclone headed for the Florida Straights in 114 hours.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#271 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:43 pm

Looks like CMC is going with the Georges 2.0 scenario and track.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#272 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:44 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:CMC has a pretty solid cyclone headed for the Florida Straights in 114 hours.


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I can't remember the last time someone did a play by play with the CMC :D
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#273 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:44 pm

Interesting how the CMC clears the islands to the North and is able to get into the gulf.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#274 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:44 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:CMC has a pretty solid cyclone headed for the Florida Straights in 114 hours.


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I can't remember the last time someone did a play by play with the CMC :D

What can I say… I’m bored!!!


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#275 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:53 pm

192 hours… the Canadians invade the Big Easy.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#276 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:01 am

No way the HWRF verifies down to 985 MB by hour 30. Also looks like it is a bit further south than the 18Z run.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#277 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:01 am

HWRF doing what the HWRF does… Hurricane approaching the islands… big question for CONUS is whether or not it clears Hispaniola.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#278 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:10 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:HWRF doing what the HWRF does… Hurricane approaching the islands… big question for CONUS is whether or not it clears Hispaniola.


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At its current 00z HWRF heading through 42 hrs it should clear Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#279 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:10 am

toad strangler wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:HWRF doing what the HWRF does… Hurricane approaching the islands… big question for CONUS is whether or not it clears Hispaniola.


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At its current 00z HWRF heading through 42 hrs it should clear Hispaniola.

Agreed, so far this is a copy of the 18z run, just a tick faster and a hair stronger.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#280 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:15 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:HWRF doing what the HWRF does… Hurricane approaching the islands… big question for CONUS is whether or not it clears Hispaniola.


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At its current 00z HWRF heading through 42 hrs it should clear Hispaniola.

Agreed, so far this is a copy of the 18z run, just a tick faster and a hair stronger.


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As soon as I say that SEVEN decides to go due W and approaching PR through 48 hrs
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