ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormhunter7]

This could a be really good discussion of.... We think the system is here, but......

I'm having a hard time finding an area to be the center. This just looks like a open tropical wave, with a broad area of lower pressure over the northern Cuban coast.

This will be interesting forecast coming up. NOAA 43 and 49 flew past to Aruba, so we will get some data to feed into models, but Fred is in the middle of Cuba.

[FLpanhandle91]

NHC admitting to maintaining Fred's TC status purely for continuity purposes. No evidence of any closed circulation.

[psyclone]

Zombie legacy ts watch for the FL west coast has been dumped.

[HeeBGBz]

When Is he going to enter the gulf? Seems like he's been sitting there.in Cuba and doesn't want to leave.

[eastcoastFL]

:uarrow: What yall are experiencing sounds exactly like what Dade and Broward went through roughly 1am-4am early this morning.

Yah it’s been relentless heavy down pours and endless lightening. Finally starting to let up. But our local forecast is for nearly 5 inches of rain by Sunday.

[eastcoastFL]

Quite an odd and interesting night for Florida weather. On the radar loop you have a large mass of thunderstorms over central FL but only part of the storms are Fred related

[SapphireSea]

Fred has been toast for a while. I couldn't imagine the weak circulation surviving so close to collapsing diurnal convection/storms. Most of the plumes of convection prob associated with ULL/Shear, and processes not associated with Fred. The circulations and number-of also indicative of meso activity, also likely unassociated.

If I had to guess it's as been said, a big trough axis extending down to maybe between 23N to 20N or so.

[wwizard]

NHC admitting to maintaining Fred's TC status purely for continuity purposes. No evidence of any closed circulation.

I think that's dumb. If they're going to be as technical as they are when it comes to classifying these systems as depressions or named storms, then it makes no sense to call it a cyclone when it's not just because it might be again in a few days. If it meets the criteria of a cyclone, then call it a cyclone. If it doesn't, then don't.

I understand the dumb public is easily confused, but that's why there's TV weather broadcasts to explain these things.

[SapphireSea]

NHC admitting to maintaining Fred's TC status purely for continuity purposes. No evidence of any closed circulation.

I think that's dumb. If they're going to be as technical as they are when it comes to classifying these systems as depressions or named storms, then it makes no sense to call it a cyclone when it's not just because it might be again in a few days. If it meets the criteria of a cyclone, then call it a cyclone. If it doesn't, then don't.

I understand the dumb public is easily confused, but that's why there's TV weather broadcasts to explain these things.

From a scientific standpoint, they cannot confirm it 100% as an open trough. Even if we believe so, and can extrap that it is pretty definitively; They as a scientific body cannot until they can confirm with observations on the ground (or in the air) that it is. I'm fairly certain that whatever happens as far as classifications and such will be clear in about 12 hours I imagine.

[SapphireSea]

NHC admitting to maintaining Fred's TC status purely for continuity purposes. No evidence of any closed circulation.

I think that's dumb. If they're going to be as technical as they are when it comes to classifying these systems as depressions or named storms, then it makes no sense to call it a cyclone when it's not just because it might be again in a few days. If it meets the criteria of a cyclone, then call it a cyclone. If it doesn't, then don't.

I understand the dumb public is easily confused, but that's why there's TV weather broadcasts to explain these things.

From a scientific standpoint, they cannot confirm it 100% as an open trough. Even if we believe so, and can extrap that it is, pretty definitively; They as a scientific body cannot until they can confirm with observations on the ground (or in the air) that it is. I'm fairly certain that whatever happens as far as classifications and such will be clear in about 12 hours I imagine.

[eastcoastFL]

NHC admitting to maintaining Fred's TC status purely for continuity purposes. No evidence of any closed circulation.

I think that's dumb. If they're going to be as technical as they are when it comes to classifying these systems as depressions or named storms, then it makes no sense to call it a cyclone when it's not just because it might be again in a few days. If it meets the criteria of a cyclone, then call it a cyclone. If it doesn't, then don't.

I understand the dumb public is easily confused, but that's why there's TV weather broadcasts to explain these things.

Well they also like to wait for a developing system to persist for a time period before they jump the gun and upgrade. In this case you mentioned the public and watched are already up. If they drop them and something spins up tomorrow it would be a bad look. Keeping them up until the morning doesn’t hurt anything. They’re going to want another recon pass in the morning before they call time of death officially.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It sure looks like the blob south of Cuba on the SE end is getting better organized. Its got rotation and even looking like some banding. It is also over some of the hottest deepest water in the whole basin

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Well, the most recent ASCAT pass came in.

While it's tough to tell with ambiguities and a lack of a super-defined westerly component, there is some decent evidence that the circulation is closed. One minor caveat, though - it's a little bit further south than where the NHC put it at the 11 PM update.

A... lot further south, actually. Guess it's another night of watching Cuban and Cayman Island radar.

[eastcoastFL]

Well, the most recent ASCAT pass came in.

While it's tough to tell with ambiguities and a lack of a super-defined westerly component, there is some decent evidence that the circulation is closed. One minor caveat, though - it's a little bit further south than where the NHC put it at the 11 PM update.

A... lot further south, actually. Guess it's another night of watching Cuban and Cayman Island radar.

https://imgur.com/xEne37S

Wow that is a lot further south.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well, the most recent ASCAT pass came in.

While it's tough to tell with ambiguities and a lack of a super-defined westerly component, there is some decent evidence that the circulation is closed. One minor caveat, though - it's a little bit further south than where the NHC put it at the 11 PM update.

A... lot further south, actually. Guess it's another night of watching Cuban and Cayman Island radar.

https://imgur.com/xEne37S

I am fairly surprised they made no mention of it. They did have a line about a possible reformation but not this far out...but that convection has been very persistent for the last 2 days

[CronkPSU]

Wowwwwwwww

What the heck are they going to do with that ASCAT….did not expect it that far south and so close to all that convection

[FLpanhandle91]

Wowwwwwwww

What the heck are they going to do with that ASCAT….did not expect it that far south and so close to all that convection

Beginning to see some low-level, broad rotation right around the convection.

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the last eat ASCAT pass and with relocation way down there all NHC and model forecast will have to go back to the drawing board and also does that mean further west landfall like Mobile to New Orleans or is the Florida panhandle still the most likely or even farther east after Cuba like Charley.

[Hurricaneman]

Wowwwwwwww

What the heck are they going to do with that ASCAT….did not expect it that far south and so close to all that convection

Beginning to see some low-level, broad rotation right around the convection.

That would put this about 100 or so miles south of the NHC position and models too

[ConvergenceZone]

At least we aren't going to have to worry about Fred being a hurricane. A few days ago I was thinking differently....