ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Huge thunderstorms rolling through here currently. Tons of lightning. Feel like the atmosphere has been juiced up by Fred's energy.

No idea where you are but same here on the Treasure Coast. These ain’t your everyday sea breeze rainy season storms.

[eastcoastFL]

Starting to get some flooding in palm city. Not sure if it has anything to do with Fred and the lightening is insane

[Evil Jeremy]

What yall are experiencing sounds exactly like what Dade and Broward went through roughly 1am-4am early this morning.

[Jr0d]

Getting some squalls in Key West. Some gusty winds, definitely has that tropical feel and look to the squall lines

[Woofde]

Freds 850mb vorticity signature has improved a small but noticeable amount over the last 10 hours. Its impressive when you consider it's spent the day over land.

[Cat5James]

:uarrow: What yall are experiencing sounds exactly like what Dade and Broward went through roughly 1am-4am early this morning.

Lightning was intense last night. I’m in Broward, storms woke me up.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is a good looking tropical wave.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: What yall are experiencing sounds exactly like what Dade and Broward went through roughly 1am-4am early this morning.

Lightning was intense last night. I’m in Broward, storms woke me up.

Yep, the power center of sofla was rocked

[Cat5James]

:uarrow: What yall are experiencing sounds exactly like what Dade and Broward went through roughly 1am-4am early this morning.

Lightning was intense last night. I’m in Broward, storms woke me up.

Yep, the power center of sofla was rocked

I see some cells rollin in off the Atlantic right now.

[wxman57]

This is a good looking tropical wave.

Yes, not even a remnant swirl remaining. Hard to believe it will be a TS tomorrow 2PM, as per NHC forecast. May still not have a circulation then.

[wxman57]

This cone has moved a ton. You won’t see that with a track that runs over nothing but water and low terrain.

The cone never changes from advisory to advisory and from storm to storm all season. It's size is updated at the end of the season when the best track data are available. The cone only represents the 66.7 percent history of the past 5 seasons, meaning 66.7% of the time in the past 5 years the center tracked somewhere in that cone.

[toad strangler]

This cone has moved a ton. You won’t see that with a track that runs over nothing but water and low terrain.

The cone never changes from advisory to advisory and from storm to storm all season. It's size is updated at the end of the season when the best track data are available. The cone only represents the 66.7 percent history of the past 5 seasons, meaning 66.7% of the time in the past 5 years the center tracked somewhere in that cone.

I wasn’t talking about the cone width my friend, but the movement of said cone from East to West. I guess it's still within the 3 day cone all the way through but that's a larger swing than I would have thought when looking at it.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't really know what to make of Fred, it does appear the overall LLC has moved due west hugging the 22N latitude and all I can imagine is that the deep convection along the south coast of Cuba keeps it from pulling away. If it doesn't start making some latitude soon it's going to be a central upper Gulf Coast problem more over toward NO.

[AdamFirst]

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
913 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

FLC085-111-140415-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.W.0005.210814T0113Z-210814T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Martin FL-St. Lucie FL-
913 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Martin County in east central Florida...
Southeastern St. Lucie County in east central Florida...

* Until 1215 AM EDT.

* At 913 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing or expected
to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 3 and 5 inches of
rain have fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Port Saint Lucie, Walton, Fort Pierce, Stuart, Jupiter Island,
Jensen Beach, Palm City, Port Salerno, Saint Lucie Nuclear Power
Plant, White City, Hobe Sound, Sewall`s Point, North River Shores,
Witham Field, Nettles Island, Port Saint Lucie River Park, Indian
River Estates, Ocean Breeze Park, Rio and Waveland.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the
warned area.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see outflows to the west of that deep convection south of the Cuba Coast, that usually means it's in a cyclonic atmosphere.

[jaxfladude]

Bones sighting soon? Or too early?

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is a little bit of turning on Cuban radar
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[psyclone]

Once everyone throws in the towel on Fred...it will blossom. Until then the hypothetical is this: If Fred were a disturbance, would it qualify for an upgrade?
If the answer is no then we're dealing with a zombie cyclone maintained for continuity purposes. It's a tough call.

[Sciencerocks]

[CronkPSU]

is it even moving north or west at this point?