ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Personally I think the LLC is still indland over Cuba, the same thing happened yesterday in which the NOAA recon (flying close to 12k) found a CoC in the middle of the convection but the LLC was further west as confirmed by the AF recon flying at low levels.

https://i.imgur.com/cYasEr7.gif

It looks like the center(if that is it)is going to run into the mountains of Central Cuba, where it will almost certainly fall apart.

Will a new center form further south over water, further north or remain an.open wave until it's over water are big unknowns. If the center reforms further north, it throws the west shift of the models out the window.v

[Nimbus]

NHC kept the north coast position, discussion is interesting though.

... "the global models fields track the 850-mb vorticity center more along the northern coast of Cuba and some of those models suggest a center re-formation could occur on Saturday near the north coast of Cuba or over the Straits of Florida. As a result, the first 24-36 hours of the track forecast has been adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not as far west as the trackers, leaving open the possibility that a center re-formation could occur. After that time, the NHC forecast lies along the eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the 12Z GFS. Some additional westward adjustments may be necessary until the track guidance stabilizes. It is worth noting that it isn`t too surprising to see these type of models shifts with a system that remains quite disorganized." ...

The apex of the old system is still visible near the north coast and with a couple days over the warm gulf even an open wave can close off and become a tropical storm. So pulling the track further off the west coast of Florida and waiting for the guidance to stabilize is about the only thing that makes sense. A relocation might add an extra day over water so hopefully that doesn't evolve.

[Aric Dunn]

Center is right in here somewhere. you can see the towers build north then turn westerly as they built around the llc.

[Aric Dunn]

Choppy but you get the idea.

[FLpanhandle91]

Choppy but you get the idea.

https://i.ibb.co/bPGgWGx/12.gif

You suggesting that that MLC eventually becomes the location of the new LLC?

[Nimbus]

Center is right in here somewhere. you can see the towers build north then turn westerly as they built around the llc.

https://i.ibb.co/KNF4mXN/Capture.gif

https://i.ibb.co/YDMhzZP/LABELS-19700101-000000-146.gif

There is a mountain near Trinidad that is providing lift.
But the NHC hasn't ruled out a southern redevelopment, maybe its a test?

[toad strangler]

This cone has moved a ton. You won’t see that with a track that runs over nothing but water and low terrain.

[eastcoastFL]

The NHC should ditch those watches on the west coast.

They’re keeping them up because they say that the weather will be far to the NE away from the center

But their own wind probs are down to aboot 10% or less on the mainland. that's not watch worthy. convection may be sheared off to the east of the center...but the gradient winds should remain well west of mainland FL with this new trend

That’s the only reason i could come up with. They still seem to believe that Fred could warrant those warnings once he crosses the keys.

[eastcoastFL]

This cone has moved a ton. You won’t see that with a track that runs over nothing but water and low terrain.

Yup and we should expect the same with PTC7 as it seems destined for similar track over shredderville

[alienstorm]

No evidence of a llc now the question will it form a new one? Most likely place to look is to the NE of the old one but no evidence of that occurring.


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[Huckster]

No evidence of a llc now the question will it form a new one? Most likely place to look is to the NE of the old one but no evidence of that occurring.


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I would look further south or west, closer to where all that convection has been firing for hours and hours. IF something new were to form, my guess is it would be where there is more low level convergence and rising motion. You can even see a little bit of cirrus spreading westward from this afternoon's vigorous convection, south of the main island of Cuba.

[storminabox]

This cone has moved a ton. You won’t see that with a track that runs over nothing but water and low terrain.

Yup and we should expect the same with PTC7 as it seems destined for similar track over shredderville

This kind of track is an absolute nightmare to forecast

[alienstorm]

No evidence of a llc now the question will it form a new one? Most likely place to look is to the NE of the old one but no evidence of that occurring.


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I would look further south or west, closer to where all that convection has been firing for hours and hours. IF something new were to form, my guess is it would be where there is more low level convergence and rising motion. You can even see a little bit of cirrus spreading westward from this afternoon's vigorous convection, south of the main island of Cuba.

That’s the MLC yes it’s possible that a new llc may form there. What I notice is that it is not moving and I believe the steering currents are weaker the further south.. time will tell


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[chaser1]

I think Fred must think it's a game of "chicken". A test to the bitter end.... the ultimate smack-down. Question is, who WILL move first? Fred or Cuba? A true test of wills

[Jr0d]

I'm fairly certain the center is now south of Cuba...funny how storms do funny things when the ping-pong off high terrain.

[Frank P]

The latest IR image of Fred is quite impressive relative to the convection blow up, esp on the south side of Cuba

[Nimbus]

HWRF, HMON and GFS all have a surface low in the gulf of Batabano tomorrow later in the day.
They also depict a 1019 high centered just east of there.

[MGC]

Quite evident the naked swirl over Cuba has dissipated....Only question is a new center formed in the convection on the south coast of Cuba...time will tell.......MGC

[SconnieCane]

Quite evident the naked swirl over Cuba has dissipated....Only question is a new center formed in the convection on the south coast of Cuba...time will tell.......MGC

I think what we have witnessed here is the dissipation of Fred - knocked to the mat by Hispaniola, then pinned down by shear, and just when it was ready to get up...Cuba. What we have now is what Fred was before cyclogenesis...a convectively vigorous tropical wave, but one that will have to rebuild a circulation from scratch. Should it do that, it would effectively be a new cyclone, although it will be the same general weather system as the original Fred, so they will probably keep the name (done before with Harvey and a few others in recent years).

[AdamFirst]

Huge thunderstorms rolling through here currently. Tons of lightning. Feel like the atmosphere has been juiced up by Fred's energy.