ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kohlecane]

Should Fred truly reform S this will be one crazy season with Danny out of nowhere, Elsa avoiding timeout multiple times and this lol

[AutoPenalti]

The SE FL luck streak continues!

Good, I can do some Kayaking.

[xironman]

That's a trough axis as this point.

Yes, and your point is?

There's no actual center...

That is obvious.

[Torgo]

Well that's a dramatic change. The 5 pm update should be interesting.

It is going to have approximately 48 hrs over very warm water. The problem is that it is going to have to start from scratch in quite non-condusive atmospheric conditions. That is why models (HMON being the exception) have this making landfall as a mid-range tropical storm at best.

[xironman]

Center reformation near 20.9N 79.5W?

The NOAA plane is down there right now.

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1426268291832553476

They are flying four miles into the sky.

[Torgo]

Well that's a dramatic change. The 5 pm update should be interesting.

Good old Fred might be getting his last disco

I'd be surprised. I have my doubts it is even a depression right now, but considering it's proximity to land, they will have be to quite certain it would not reform for them to advisories.

[NDG]

Personally I think the LLC is still indland over Cuba, the same thing happened yesterday in which the NOAA recon (flying close to 12k) found a CoC in the middle of the convection but the LLC was further west as confirmed by the AF recon flying at low levels.

[aspen]

The SE FL luck streak continues!

Don’t say that too soon. There’s Grace to possibly watch soon.

But yeah poor Fred looks very dead. It’s like it was magnetically attracted to the most hostile land in the region. Maybe it reforms over the weekend in the Gulf as most models seem to insist.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Personally I think the LLC is still indland over Cuba, the same thing happened yesterday in which the NOAA recon (flying close to 12k) found a CoC in the middle of the convection but the LLC was further west as confirmed by the AF recon flying at low levels.

I wouldn't use that recon flight as evidence of a relocation. The plane was actually flying around 410mb/7400m when it noticed that small wind shift south of Cuba, so it'd likely be flying above most rotation in the storm. Radar and visible imagery do show that something is attempting to consolidate on the southern shore of Cuba, however.

[NDG]

Personally I think the LLC is still indland over Cuba, the same thing happened yesterday in which the NOAA recon (flying close to 12k) found a CoC in the middle of the convection but the LLC was further west as confirmed by the AF recon flying at low levels.

https://i.imgur.com/cYasEr7.gif

I wouldn't use that recon flight as evidence of a relocation. The plane was actually flying around 410mb/7400m when it noticed that small wind shift south of Cuba, so it'd likely be flying above most rotation in the storm. Radar and visible imagery do show that something is attempting to consolidate on the southern shore of Cuba, however.

Yep, I just realized the NOAA recon was flying even higher at 24k feet than the one yesterday evening. I just can't believe a Pro-Met or soon to be Pro-Met on Twitter didn't realized that before saying that the circulation was reforming further south.

[Frank P]

If I were a betting man I would bet that the center is south of Cuba now… and that is why I never bet… several models suggested that could happen so it not so unbelievable that it could not happen… bottom line in all of this … I just absolutely love it when tropical cyclones just do their own thing and make everyone else look kinda foolish.. moi included! Gotta love August, gonna have a lot of fun for the next couple of months, provided of course I don’t lose another house!

[BobHarlem]

NHC kept the north coast position, discussion is interesting though.

... "the global models fields track the 850-mb vorticity center more along the northern coast of Cuba and some of those models suggest a center re-formation could occur on Saturday near the north coast of Cuba or over the Straits of Florida. As a result, the first 24-36 hours of the track forecast has been adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not as far west as the trackers, leaving open the possibility that a center re-formation could occur. After that time, the NHC forecast lies along the eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the 12Z GFS. Some additional westward adjustments may be necessary until the track guidance stabilizes. It is worth noting that it isn`t too surprising to see these type of models shifts with a system that remains quite disorganized." ...

[NDG]

5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 13
Location: 22.3°N 79.6°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[psyclone]

The NHC should ditch those watches on the west coast.

[boca]

The NHC should cancel the watches and NWS should cancel the flood watch

[jlauderdal]

The NHC should cancel the watches and NWS should cancel the flood watch

Flood Watch needs to get canceled, I can see why they keep the watch up in case of a reformation albeit very unlikely.

[galaxy401]

Noticed the NHC raised the intensity forecast for Fred in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm is a complete slop right now but in the next couple days, it could be a different story.

[eastcoastFL]

Guess we’re all a little crazy. NHC makes no note of a trough axis or dissipation and they increased max intensity down the road to 60mph. I guess Fred is here to stay for a little longer.

[eastcoastFL]

The NHC should ditch those watches on the west coast.

They’re keeping them up because they say that the weather will be far to the NE away from the center

[psyclone]

The NHC should ditch those watches on the west coast.

They’re keeping them up because they say that the weather will be far to the NE away from the center

But their own wind probs are down to aboot 10% or less on the mainland. that's not watch worthy. convection may be sheared off to the east of the center...but the gradient winds should remain well west of mainland FL with this new trend