ATL: GRACE - Models

[tolakram]

[SoupBone]

Not August 20th yet, electricians still trying to figure out why the switch is not working.

https://i.imgur.com/Huj9gsr.png

You of all people should know better than to post a season cancel bait and switch.

[SFLcane]

18z TCVN now north of the islands. Also check out the Gefs ensembles

[AutoPenalti]

Not August 20th yet, electricians still trying to figure out why the switch is not working.

https://i.imgur.com/Huj9gsr.png

Funny you mentioned that, I've had nothing but calls to make to certified Electricians to fix a double-tap in the main panel in my property.

[Spacecoast]

18z TCVN now north of the islands. Also check out the Canadian ensembles

https://i.postimg.cc/RFqvkSCW/6-C565-F14-287-F-4358-B3-E5-DF57-B1-F8-D508.png

https://i.postimg.cc/4dMXZDnB/562-D2085-FD79-4-AC2-95-BA-E40-C591-DEA9-D.png

Those are the GFS ensembles.. Although, the GEPS also show some strong tracks

[tolakram]

Here's the HWRF run. Keep in mind the HWRF has had a terrible track record so far.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro ens has only one strong member (out of ~51) landfalling over the SE US and that hits Daytona Beach on 8/21.

[IcyTundra]

I don't buy the 12Z HWRF but it has a Laura like track in the Caribbean passing just south of Puerto Rico traversing the spine of Hispanola and mostly avoiding interaction with Cuba to the south before going into the GOM. I believe the HWRF is too far south but it is interesting.

[jlauderdal]

Here's the HWRF run. Keep in mind the HWRF has had a terrible track record so far.

https://i.imgur.com/a8ypG47.gif

Based on that run, I would expect 95L to take a northerly route and never touch PR or DR

[Hurricaneman]

It’s also possible the models are once again severely underestimating td 7 and that this could be far stronger than most models are hinting at

[aspen]

18z GFS once again wrecks this over the shredder, but it’s a little further north and just clips the northern coast of Hispaniola, so the vorticity survives.

Update: and it’s going into the Gulf. Either Fred 2.0 or something about to go nuclear

[IcyTundra]

18Z ICON has TD 7 barely clearing PR and Hispanola to the North and continuing WNW towards the Bahamas. 18Z GFS thinks this is Fred 2.0 making landfall as a weak TS very close to where it has Fred making landfall.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GEFS started off with all weak members but suddenly became much more active near the SE coast.

[aspen]

18z GFS has Grace just barely miss the northern tip of Puerto Rico as a pinhole Cat 1. Its track has been shifting further and further north each run, and is now one of the northernmost models.

[AxaltaRacing24]

18z GFS has Grace just barely miss the northern tip of Puerto Rico as a pinhole Cat 1. Its track has been shifting further and further north each run, and is now one of the northernmost models.

I think you mean the HWRF lol

[SFLcane]

Luis!!!!!

[toad strangler]

Luis!!!!!

https://i.postimg.cc/BbwHgdC8/233-B9938-193-C-4-AE6-8-B97-5-B07-D45-A3-BE6.gif

OY VEY thankfully it’s just the HWRF

[HurricaneFrances04]

I expected to see the HWRF just keep the pedal to the floor after missing Puerto Rico but it actually weakens 10 mb between 66 hrs and 72 hrs.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Definitely a few more bullish members

[SFLcane]

I expected to see the HWRF just keep the pedal to the floor after missing Puerto Rico but it actually weakens 10 mb between 66 hrs and 72 hrs.

It’s shift north is interesting. Let’s see if it strengthens again