ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fred is looking more like a mcs than a Tc

[BobHarlem]

That outflow is going to destroy it. My best guess is a new center very slowly appears north of Cuba, like the GFS hits at. We'll see.

I dont know.. but the 3 inflow feeders are becoming more pronounced and the inflow has sped up into those towers just offshore..

that outflow may just cause a massive burst which would only help with the convergence in that area.. just have to watch..

https://i.ibb.co/ss8MwzT/Capture.gif

https://i.ibb.co/hVh2pKR/LABELS-19700101-000000-145.gif

For what it's worth both the 12z HWRF and HMON show this area s. of cuba get going, then it curves back north over the western side of Cuba into the Gulf.

[tolakram]

That outflow is going to destroy it. My best guess is a new center very slowly appears north of Cuba, like the GFS hits at. We'll see.

I dont know.. but the 3 inflow feeders are becoming more pronounced and the inflow has sped up into those towers just offshore..

that outflow may just cause a massive burst which would only help with the convergence in that area.. just have to watch..

https://i.ibb.co/ss8MwzT/Capture.gif

https://i.ibb.co/hVh2pKR/LABELS-19700101-000000-145.gif

The shear is out of the south now, I just don't see a new LLC developing upshear rather than downshear. Also not sure though.

[alienstorm]

LLC is half over land, half over water moving toward the water of the Fl Straits,we should start seeing convention wrapping around the north side soon. But the shear is still high.

[crimi481]

If center reforms s. of Cuba, how will that effect track and w coast of Florida?

[cane5]

Fred is looking more like a mcs than a Tc

Fred has been very unlucky. I actually can’t remember in the last few years a storm had to go right across the Dominican/Haitian mine field and then scoot across mostly land in Cuba. Who really knows what Fred might have been. My hope is that when we get to Sept 1rst where the real monsters emerge off Africa the same thing will happen…What’s the chance of that ?

[ElectricStorm]

Fred is looking more like a mcs than a Tc

Fred has been very unlucky. I actually can’t remember in the last few years a storm had to go right across the Dominican/Haitian mine field and then scoot across mostly land in Cuba. Who really knows what Fred might have been. My hope is that when we get to Sept 1rst where the real monsters emerge off Africa the same thing will happen…What’s the chance of that ?

I'm pretty sure Laura went over both of them last year, although it may have avoided the tallest mountains of Hispaniola

[Weatherboy1]

There is a distinct possibility we are seeing a reformation in that bay on the southern cuban coast. the LLC has send out a surge/ some sort of outflow to the south which could some sort of re organization mechanism.



https://i.ibb.co/QNMdM12/Capture.gif

https://i.ibb.co/7JNsq2D/LABELS-19700101-000000-144.gif

Funny, but I was just looking at some hi-resolution visible satellite loops. Looks like low clouds moving in such a way as to suggest a new center MAY be reforming on the south side of the Cuban coast just under that big burst of convection. Interesting to say the least.

[tolakram]

Fred has lost floater status again.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Cuba-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Frank P]

Here’s a link to the Cuba radar but hard to discern where exactly the center is, I see a couple of suspect areas with one inland and another just off the coast.

https://www.rainviewer.com/weather-rada ... ,-79.575,5

[vbhoutex]

There is a distinct possibility we are seeing a reformation in that bay on the southern cuban coast. the LLC has send out a surge/ some sort of outflow to the south which could some sort of re organization mechanism.



https://i.ibb.co/QNMdM12/Capture.gif

https://i.ibb.co/7JNsq2D/LABELS-19700101-000000-144.gif

Funny, but I was just looking at some hi-resolution visible satellite loops. Looks like low clouds moving in such a way as to suggest a new center MAY be reforming on the south side of the Cuban coast just under that big burst of convection. Interesting to say the least.

Interesting analysis from both. My take after reading a few things and looking at the posted links is that we may be seeing a strong feed developing across Cuba to the appparent LLC. If this is happening I wouldn't be surprised to see Fred reform but off the N coast and not the south one. Note I haven't done any in depth analysis of satelitte loops that can be very telling in theses questionable situations.

[Nimbus]

All I see is the low level center that was just along the north coast this morning slowly moving west inland now.
Should be pretty weak when it gets back over the gulf but it has been feeding moisture as several posters have commented and the terrain isn't as much of a shredder as Hispaniola so it might survive.
Could be a real threat once the upper low fills and shear subsides in the gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

looking pretty spinny in that convection off south coast..

https://www.rainviewer.com/map.html?loc ... &sm=1&sn=1

[InfernoFlameCat]

I believe that big burst of convection is causing the current center to dissipate. A new center could form either north or south of cuba.

[tailgater]

There is a distinct possibility we are seeing a reformation in that bay on the southern cuban coast. the LLC has send out a surge/ some sort of outflow to the south which could some sort of re organization mechanism.



https://i.ibb.co/QNMdM12/Capture.gif

https://i.ibb.co/7JNsq2D/LABELS-19700101-000000-144.gif

Funny, but I was just looking at some hi-resolution visible satellite loops. Looks like low clouds moving in such a way as to suggest a new center MAY be reforming on the south side of the Cuban coast just under that big burst of convection. Interesting to say the least.

I just noticed that area is pushing the shear aside for now. Very curious how this does develop, I also noticed a pretty sharp curvature in the weak banding near Andros Island maybe what the GFS eventually has taking over but that will not happen imho unless this center dissipates.
NOAA 3 training mission headed that way now.

[cane5]

There is a distinct possibility we are seeing a reformation in that bay on the southern cuban coast. the LLC has send out a surge/ some sort of outflow to the south which could some sort of re organization mechanism.

So went to the NHC radar which I always check for local storms and all the rain bands seem to almost be directed to a wnw direction. If I was a betting man I would have to put the odds of less impacts to South Florida and Southwest Florida than is predicted.


https://i.ibb.co/QNMdM12/Capture.gif

https://i.ibb.co/7JNsq2D/LABELS-19700101-000000-144.gif

Funny, but I was just looking at some hi-resolution visible satellite loops. Looks like low clouds moving in such a way as to suggest a new center MAY be reforming on the south side of the Cuban coast just under that big burst of convection. Interesting to say the least.

I just noticed that area is pushing the shear aside for now. Very curious how this does develop, I also noticed a pretty sharp curvature in the weak banding near Andros Island maybe what the GFS eventually has taking over but that will not happen imho unless this center dissipates.

NOAA 3 trading mission headed that way now.

[xironman]

That is a lot of inflow into the south side. Normally you would think you would not get a relocation, but you never know....

[AutoPenalti]

That is a lot of inflow into the south side. Normally you would think you would not get a relocation, but you never know....

https://i.imgur.com/gMiVhdx.gif

That's a trough axis as this point.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fred looks like it got sliced in half on hispaniola and went splat on Cuba. I see a potential new LLC near the western tip of Cuba. Directly south of Florida.

[cane5]

looking pretty spinny in that convection off south coast..

https://www.rainviewer.com/map.html?loc ... &sm=1&sn=1

Looks like what I saw on radar almost a wnw component.