ATL: GRACE - Models

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.ibb.co/52MYBgT/SHIPS-2.png
https://i.ibb.co/NVJKtMT/SHIPS-1.png

SHIPS being aggressive.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.ibb.co/52MYBgT/SHIPS-2.png
https://i.ibb.co/NVJKtMT/SHIPS-1.png

SHIPS being aggressive.

Because despite many people writing it off, it has a decent chance of become at least a cat 1 if it misses majority of the islands.

[LarryWx]

Good news from 12Z UKMET but it tends to be conservative:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 48.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2021 0 15.1N 48.7W 1014 24
0000UTC 14.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

[aspen]

HWRF develops this before reaching the Lesser Antilles. Let’s see if it misses the shredder or caves into the Euro track like the GFS.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS ens fortunately has only one strong member out of the ~31 members. It goes from Bahamas to FL Straits to E GOM to US gulf landfall.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF develops this before reaching the Lesser Antilles. Let’s see if it misses the shredder or caves into the Euro track like the GFS.

It's possible if it can thin out the PV Streamer ahead of it.

[aspen]

About to go through the shredder on the HWRF, but not before going pinhole just south of Puerto Rico.

[Spacecoast]

The 12Z GFS ens fortunately has only one strong member out of the ~31 members. It goes from Bahamas to FL Straits to E GOM to US gulf landfall.

I would say one very strong member. ....
Is that 939mb? Cat4?
Let's hope that member is wrong.

[MarioProtVI]

About to go through the shredder on the HWRF, but not before going pinhole just south of Puerto Rico.

HWRF overdoes systems coming from the MDR without recon data. 18z run will likely be far weaker.

[caneseddy]

CMC doesn’t do anything with it but has vorticity landfalling around the First Coast

Icon has a strong TS/low end Cat 1 right off the Treasure/Space Coast

HMON never develops it and sends a blob into Hispaniola

[aspen]

About to go through the shredder on the HWRF, but not before going pinhole just south of Puerto Rico.

HWRF overdoes systems coming from the MDR without recon data. 18z run will likely be far weaker.

When’s the first recon flight again?

The HWRF continues to be by far the southernmost model, behind the Euro. This is a little odd because it’s been the northernmost model for many storms over the last year — Laura, Eta, Iota, Elsa (I think), and now Fred.

[MarioProtVI]

About to go through the shredder on the HWRF, but not before going pinhole just south of Puerto Rico.

HWRF overdoes systems coming from the MDR without recon data. 18z run will likely be far weaker.

When’s the first recon flight again?

The HWRF continues to be by far the southernmost model, behind the Euro. This is a little odd because it’s been the northernmost model for many storms over the last year — Laura, Eta, Iota, Elsa (I think), and now Fred.

I think tomorrow

[tolakram]

12Z Euro running

[lsuhurricane]

Should see full fledged development on this Euro run

[Kohlecane]

12z Euro more northern track and a bit faster it seems..

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Nope

[Spacecoast]

GEFS has quite the range of possibilities, some are extremely strong

[aspen]

I think the development of Henri in the subtropics will impact the track of Grace by weakening the ridge, allowing it to go north and not get shredded. The 12z ICON and Euro show the subtropics low, and Grace heads north, while the 12z GFS does not show it.

[tolakram]

Not August 20th yet, electricians still trying to figure out why the switch is not working.