ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cane5]

HWRF has this going south of Cuba and then coming back.

https://imgur.com/TloFtHP

I’m sorry but what good is the cone of concern when a storm like Fred is 90 miles away and the cone has shifted 3 times in 10 hours. I can see if it were even 150 miles out but it does not serve a purpose if it can change so close to South Florida where I live. And I state this as being a example of being so close. You might say well it’s because it’s not a hurricane so it’s harder to pinpoint, then if that is the case do not have a cone of concern until it’s established itself.We still have a long season and it would be nice if this can get polished up a bit.Sometimes they get it right when a storm is a thousand miles away so it is a lot easier to maintain a position if it’s 90 miles away.

[Frank P]

Still looks like he is moving between WSW or just south of due west… I don’t see the WNW motion on the sat loops..IMO

[toad strangler]

HWRF has this going south of Cuba and then coming back.

https://imgur.com/TloFtHP

I’m sorry but what good is the cone of concern when a storm like Fred is 90 miles away and the cone has shifted 3 times in 10 hours. I can see if it were even 150 miles out but it does not serve a purpose if it can change so close to South Florida where I live. And I state this as being a example of being so close. You might say well it’s because it’s not a hurricane so it’s harder to pinpoint, then if that is the case do not have a cone of concern until it’s established itself.We still have a long season and it would be nice if this can get polished up a bit.Sometimes they get it right when a storm is a thousand miles away so it is a lot easier to maintain a position if it’s 90 miles away.

Tracks involving storms interacting with land AND being weak as well are very complicated.

[Shell Mound]

HWRF has this going south of Cuba and then coming back.

https://imgur.com/TloFtHP

One can definitely observe that southwesterly shear is still quite strong, as evidenced by the cirrus outflow hastening to the northeast.

[Frank P]

HWRF has this going south of Cuba and then coming back.

https://imgur.com/TloFtHP

One can definitely observe that southwesterly shear is still quite strong, as evidenced by the cirrus outflow hastening to the northeast.

And that low level circulation is quite robust, good thing the shear is still hammering him..

[tolakram]

HWRF has this going south of Cuba and then coming back.

https://imgur.com/TloFtHP

I’m sorry but what good is the cone of concern when a storm like Fred is 90 miles away and the cone has shifted 3 times in 10 hours. I can see if it were even 150 miles out but it does not serve a purpose if it can change so close to South Florida where I live. And I state this as being a example of being so close. You might say well it’s because it’s not a hurricane so it’s harder to pinpoint, then if that is the case do not have a cone of concern until it’s established itself.We still have a long season and it would be nice if this can get polished up a bit.Sometimes they get it right when a storm is a thousand miles away so it is a lot easier to maintain a position if it’s 90 miles away.

It's simply probability circles, and honestly the weaker the storm the more errors there will be. The NHC track record is stellar, not sometimes, but there will always be exceptions. Track forecasting has improved greatly, but it's still not exact.

[xironman]

Still looks like he is moving between WSW or just south of due west… I don’t see the WNW motion on the sat loops..IMO

It looks closer to the south coast than the north

[crimi481]

Reforming N and E?

[psyclone]

HWRF has this going south of Cuba and then coming back.

https://imgur.com/TloFtHP

I’m sorry but what good is the cone of concern when a storm like Fred is 90 miles away and the cone has shifted 3 times in 10 hours. I can see if it were even 150 miles out but it does not serve a purpose if it can change so close to South Florida where I live. And I state this as being a example of being so close. You might say well it’s because it’s not a hurricane so it’s harder to pinpoint, then if that is the case do not have a cone of concern until it’s established itself.We still have a long season and it would be nice if this can get polished up a bit.Sometimes they get it right when a storm is a thousand miles away so it is a lot easier to maintain a position if it’s 90 miles away.

To be precise the "cone" shifts every 6 hours with every storm unless the forecasts are a carbon copy. The answer is not to focus on the exact track or edge of a cone (which is a poor indicator of risk) and instead look at the hazard products (wind probs/QPF/surge products). Keeping an eye on those and the trendlines is the optimal way to assess risk for storm impacts.

[AlphaToOmega]

Potential dihydrogen monoxide hazards from Fred:

[Sciencerocks]

[captainbarbossa19]

Sure looks like what is left of Fred is heading towards the Caribbean.

[hipshot]

Sure looks like what is left of Fred is heading towards the Caribbean.

When is the next recon due? It could be very interesting if this thing is loops back across Cuba and back into
the Caribbean. All bets would be off then I think.

[psyclone]

Fred's been a flop as a coherent TC. At this point it's biggest threat may well be heavy rain and an attendant flash flood threat in the south and eastern slopes of the southern Apps. N GA, W NC/VA might be at most risk assuming the deep plume of tropical moisture heads up that way as currently expected.

[Cat5James]

Potential dihydrogen monoxide hazards from Fred:
https://i.postimg.cc/WbmyNJVP/150106-WPCQPF-sm.gif

Looks like the estimates for 6+ inches have expanded in SE FL... now most of Miami and Broward are orange

[Aric Dunn]

There is a distinct possibility we are seeing a reformation in that bay on the southern cuban coast. the LLC has send out a surge/ some sort of outflow to the south which could some sort of re organization mechanism.

[tolakram]

That outflow is going to destroy it. My best guess is a new center very slowly appears north of Cuba, like the GFS hits at. We'll see.

[Frank P]

Most of significant convection is either inland near the center or south of Cuba… sat images as best I can discern has Fred not that far from entering off the south coast and looks to be continuing in that direction. I see no center relocation anytime soon to the north until that robust center in Cuba dissipates… which maybe it does or does not…

[InfernoFlameCat]

If Fred got down there and then into the central gulf that would be terrible news. Fred could go from slop to a beast. That environment is really conductive.

[Aric Dunn]

That outflow is going to destroy it. My best guess is a new center very slowly appears north of Cuba, like the GFS hits at. We'll see.

I dont know.. but the 3 inflow feeders are becoming more pronounced and the inflow has sped up into those towers just offshore..

that outflow may just cause a massive burst which would only help with the convergence in that area.. just have to watch..