ATL: GRACE - Models
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jconsor
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
These convective differences between models at initialization/very short-term quickly grow upscale (with time). These discrepancies likely have a significant impact on how strong of a system EPS and GEFS are showing down the road for 95L, in addition to the differences in the operational runs.
Note that the models have switched places since yesterday (when tweet from Eric Webb below was written), with GFS now more convectively active while the ECMWF is more anemic.
GFS has tended to handle relatively small systems developing in the monsoon trough or ITCZ better than the ECMWF in the past few years- for example, Beryl 2018, Dorian 2019, Gonzalo 2020 and Elsa this year in their genesis phase.
https://mobile.twitter.com/yconsor/stat ... 2050526208
https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweathe ... 5191126021
Note that the models have switched places since yesterday (when tweet from Eric Webb below was written), with GFS now more convectively active while the ECMWF is more anemic.
GFS has tended to handle relatively small systems developing in the monsoon trough or ITCZ better than the ECMWF in the past few years- for example, Beryl 2018, Dorian 2019, Gonzalo 2020 and Elsa this year in their genesis phase.
https://mobile.twitter.com/yconsor/stat ... 2050526208
https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweathe ... 5191126021
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
On the subject of convective differences, the 06z HWRF poorly initialized the current presentation of 95L and should probably be discounted. It once again refuses to show development.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
That track is so Dorian-ish.
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
Re: ATL: PTC SEVEN - Models
The GFS is the most northern run while the Euro is the southernmost. The CMC and ICON, so far, just barely miss PR and get it north of DR. Even small shifts can mean the difference from a Shredder victim or a potential Bahamas/FL/SEUS threat.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Spacecoast
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: PTC SEVEN - Models
Spacecoast wrote:[url]https://i.ibb.co/3B1JXC0/ecmea.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/nwkQv8f/ecmeb.jpg [/url]
Very Dorian-esque, you have to wonder if a shortwave is waiting to pick this up just before Florida or it follows the NHC track right up the spine of Hispaniola.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Fri Aug 13, 2021 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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lsuhurricane
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
12z ICON looks to delay any substantial strengthening until the Bahamas. Clearly showing a drop in steering currents once it arrives off the coast of FL. End of the run is likely to show the same with a hurricane developing
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
12z GFS coming in weaker, less consolidated approaching the islands.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
Conditions similar to 6Z run but taking it over all the islands.
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
Anyone thinking that this might head into the Gulf or is this most likely going to turn north before Florida?
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:12z GFS coming in weaker, less consolidated approaching the islands.
Fred round 2
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
Funny how the GFS was the northernmost run until the NHC put out their track forecast. Instead of us model-hugging, the model has become the one to forecast-hug.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
Very strong model consensus for this one to be weak, sheared, and into the shredder. Obviously, this could change, but it's very apparent right now the Atlantic is very hostile to storms in this region.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
I swear the GFS has some strong clockwise outflow from superstorm Fred imparting shear over SEVEN.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
tolakram wrote:I swear the GFS has some strong clockwise outflow from superstorm Fred imparting shear over SEVEN.
Superstorm?
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lsuhurricane
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
In news that shouldn't be shock given its inconsistencies, the 12z GFS ensembles are definitely more aggressive as they move north of Puerto Rico and the DR.
Moving through the FL straits on a WNW motion.
Moving through the FL straits on a WNW motion.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models
mitchell wrote:tolakram wrote:I swear the GFS has some strong clockwise outflow from superstorm Fred imparting shear over SEVEN.
Superstorm?
Tolakram was being sarcastic.
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