ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Fred has regained floater status for now.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[NDG]

That's about where I have it for our 9am advisory.

To the south of it, the City of Camaguey is reporting very light west winds, it may indeed be the residual LLC.

Do you have an ICAO for that report (4-letter code)? I see NE wind 10 kts at Cayo Coco, west end of that barrier island.

MUCM

[NDG]

[tropicwatch]

The HH don't appear interested in the circulation in the satellite image.

[tropicwatch]

The HH don't appear interested in the circulation in the satellite image.

Spoke too soon they are going back.

[Jr0d]

Can we finally say, “Fred is dead”?

Given the models were not showing any development until it's over the Keys, it might be a little premature.

The same models were too bullish with Fred’s short-term development for the most part. The ULL has progressed somewhat more slowly than forecast. Given the presence of westerly shear and the absence of a LLC, Fred is unlikely to regenerate in the Gulf of Mexico. I don’t believe there will be much of a mid-level vortex left that could serve as a locus for the development of a new LLC. For all practical purposes Fred is dead. Models should not be trusted at this stage.

Not seeing the towers getting sheared like they were yesterday morning.

Land interaction seems to be the current major inhibitor.

I thought it was dead yesterday morning and it surprised me. Not going to write it off until it crosses the gulf stream.

[cane5]

To the south of it, the City of Camaguey is reporting very light west winds, it may indeed be the residual LLC.

Do you have an ICAO for that report (4-letter code)? I see NE wind 10 kts at Cayo Coco, west end of that barrier island.

Freddie the ghost is just a head scratcher. All the storms are to the south of the center. Convection is hard to find. The swirl we saw yesterday is hard for the eye to see. And all the models and forecasters call for as much as 4 to 6 inches of rain on the dirty side. But the dirty side looks very clean to me. This is just a skeleton storm with direction but nothing there. But we all here on the board must be missing it….I guess.

MUCM

[Frank P]

Looking at the vis sat loops there sure appears to be quite the robust NW inflow into that area of the convection mass south of Cuba.. can’t discern if it’s making it all the way to naked swirl heading for landfall in Cuba either… may or may not be much but it caught my eye for sure…

[Dean4Storms]

Guess REcon cannot fly over Cuba.

[BobHarlem]

Odds of a center relocation seem pretty high today, just not sure where.

[tolakram]

Wind shear a little lower than yesterday, just above 20 instead of just above 25 kts.

[tropicwatch]

Guess REcon cannot fly over Cuba.

They were able to last year. Guess that kitchen pass has been revoked

[FLpanhandle91]

Given the models were not showing any development until it's over the Keys, it might be a little premature.

The same models were too bullish with Fred’s short-term development for the most part. The ULL has progressed somewhat more slowly than forecast. Given the presence of westerly shear and the absence of a LLC, Fred is unlikely to regenerate in the Gulf of Mexico. I don’t believe there will be much of a mid-level vortex left that could serve as a locus for the development of a new LLC. For all practical purposes Fred is dead. Models should not be trusted at this stage.

Not seeing the towers getting sheared like they were yesterday morning.

Land interaction seems to be the current major inhibitor.

I thought it was dead yesterday morning and it surprised me. Not going to write it off until it crosses the gulf stream.

Still some pretty strong shear over the "LLC" of the storm. Both deep layer shear maps and satellite show 20+ kits of southwesterly shear there. The blob to the south Cuba is in a much more conducive shear environment (10-15 kts).

[Dean4Storms]

Notice the South to North upper level movement of high clouds over the LLC Recon is tracking? No sign of mid or upper level support for that swirl.

[xironman]

Guess REcon cannot fly over Cuba.

They were able to last year. Guess that kitchen pass has been revoked

The way I understand it NOAA can, Air Force, not so much.

[aspen]

Guess REcon cannot fly over Cuba.

They were able to last year. Guess that kitchen pass has been revoked

I think only NOAA planes have permission to fly over Cuba, but AF planes cannot. Also, it’s probably too dangerous to fly over Cuba at standard recon flight level because of the risk hitting mountains.

[GCANE]

Looks like all shear-induced convection that keeps washing out.
CAPE is minimal.
Going to take time if and when this may reorg.

[Frank P]

Odds of a center relocation seem pretty high today, just not sure where.

I think that quite robust circulation that the NHC is identifying as the center of Fred will have to die off first…if it keeps moving west over Cuba and I guess that’s possible, but if it can pull away and get some more northerly component it will be the dominant center and will most likely continue to develop as it pulls away from Cuba… IMO… who knows? Regardless he’s UGLY

[InfernoFlameCat]

Man Fred looks bad. No signs of convection over the center, it’s running into Cuba, and the vorticity is spinning down. Fred got hit by a train, stumbled out of the hospital a day later, and is stumbling across the train tracks of the Cuba express. The shredder lives up to its name.

[Dean4Storms]

Good site for METAR TAF sites in Cuba, can just click on a red dot on map to the right and see each one........https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/cuba-jamaica.php?icao=MUCM