ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

E-ESE wind just north of the Cuban coast at 10,000 ft = no circulation at flight level. Visible satellite may reveal a residual LLC in an hour.

This is where I see the residual LLC, or at least a surface vorticity, very weak.
No signs of a developing LLC down there by the convection between Cuba and Jamaica as some might think.

https://i.imgur.com/SGPPQrp.jpg

That's about where I have it for our 9am advisory. I see some westerly low cloud movement inland over Cuba. The residual swirl may be right on the coast.

[Cat5James]

Is the 06z GFS so outlandish they don't even want to release it?

[NDG]

E-ESE wind just north of the Cuban coast at 10,000 ft = no circulation at flight level. Visible satellite may reveal a residual LLC in an hour.

This is where I see the residual LLC, or at least a surface vorticity, very weak.
No signs of a developing LLC down there by the convection between Cuba and Jamaica as some might think.

https://i.imgur.com/SGPPQrp.jpg

That's about where I have it for our 9am advisory.

To the south of it, the City of Camaguey is reporting very light west winds, it may indeed be the residual LLC.

[NDG]

Is the 06z GFS so outlandish they don't even want to release it?

95L made it crash after last night's run

[InfernoFlameCat]

I see some mid level spin on the south blob.

[wxman57]

This is where I see the residual LLC, or at least a surface vorticity, very weak.
No signs of a developing LLC down there by the convection between Cuba and Jamaica as some might think.

https://i.imgur.com/SGPPQrp.jpg

That's about where I have it for our 9am advisory.

To the south of it, the City of Camaguey is reporting very light west winds, it may indeed be the residual LLC.

Do you have an ICAO for that report (4-letter code)? I see NE wind 10 kts at Cayo Coco, west end of that barrier island.

[Woofde]

Maybe the convection to the south tugged Fred into Cuba?

[Jr0d]

E-ESE wind just north of the Cuban coast at 10,000 ft = no circulation at flight level. Visible satellite may reveal a residual LLC in an hour.

This is where I see the residual LLC, or at least a surface vorticity, very weak.
No signs of a developing LLC down there by the convection between Cuba and Jamaica as some might think.

https://i.imgur.com/SGPPQrp.jpg

That's what I see on the first visual images. Maybe a weak swirl hugging the coast, well west of the convection.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm anxious to read the NHC's 15Z discussion. What will they do now? Maybe high-res visible will reveal a residual swirl (remnant low). I just can't believe they'll say it has dissipated and stop advisories. Hey, "Fred is now post tropical so we're switching to PTC advisories"? That wouldn't confuse anyone.

They’ll probably keep it as a TD and note that it’s on life support

[Shell Mound]

Can we finally say, “Fred is dead”?

[eastcoastFL]

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 77.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys
on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1013 mb
(29.92 inches).

[InfernoFlameCat]

Can we finally say, “Fred is dead”?

Man I think Fred is close but we can’t rule it out yet. Still has a LLC. Still better looking than Barry.

[Dean4Storms]

Call me crazy but that so-called center appears to be more like a vort and seems to be now moving more WSW or even SW as if it is getting wrapped around a more broad center that could be either over eastern Cuba or just off the Coast to the South.
I don't see a WNW movement with the swirl at 77.5W 22N.

[wxman57]

Call me crazy but that so-called center appears to be more like a vort and seems to be now moving more WSW or even SW as if it is getting wrapped around a more broad center that could be either over eastern Cuba or just off the Coast to the South.
I don't see a WNW movement with the swirl at 77.5W 22N.

Could be. I see it near 22.2N/77.9W. Definitely not a TD, but a new center may form a bit to the north today.

[Jr0d]

Can we finally say, “Fred is dead”?

Given the models were not showing any development until it's over the Keys, it might be a little premature.

[eastcoastFL]

It seems from the 5am disco that they are holding steady with it being a TD because they expect it to get better organized when it reaches the keys and moves into the gulf but there’s no guarantee that Fred makes it that far.

[Shell Mound]

Can we finally say, “Fred is dead”?

Given the models were not showing any development until it's over the Keys, it might be a little premature.

The same models were too bullish with Fred’s short-term development for the most part. The ULL has progressed somewhat more slowly than forecast. Given the presence of westerly shear and the absence of a LLC, Fred is unlikely to regenerate in the Gulf of Mexico. I don’t believe there will be much of a mid-level vortex left that could serve as a locus for the development of a new LLC. For all practical purposes Fred is dead. Models should not be trusted at this stage.

[Dean4Storms]

That area of convection between Cuba and Jamaica sure has less shear, note the expanding UL clouds to the SW and West and then to the east more easterly outflow. Seems an UL High is getting established there when you have upper level outflow in both directions. With Fred so weak it would not surprise me to see a center re-locate, we've seen this before with these destroyed storms.

[Frank P]

Call me crazy but that so-called center appears to be more like a vort and seems to be now moving more WSW or even SW as if it is getting wrapped around a more broad center that could be either over eastern Cuba or just off the Coast to the South.
I don't see a WNW movement with the swirl at 77.5W 22N.

Nope not crazy that vortex certainly appears to be moving more just south of due west and not WNW.. Fred is certainly discombobulated att… and until it either starts moving north or develops a new center Fred is in trouble.. models are clueless

[Welwood470]

Do you have an ICAO for that report (4-letter code)? I see NE wind 10 kts at Cayo Coco, west end of that barrier island.

" Cayo Coco (ICAO: MUOC) was an airport in Cayo Coco, Cuba that served as the main airport of the island until it was superseded by the Jardines del Rey Airport, which opened in 2002. The former runway of the airport was incorporated as the new route of a highway heading west connecting Cayo Coco with Cayo Guillermo, although some runway markings and taxiways remain visible. The airport terminal buildings and surrounding area have been reclaimed as a small natural park called Parque Natural El Baga."