ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

The convection south of eastern Cuba is looking interesting this morning. I saw a spin at sunset last evening moving off that tip of Haiti toward the west, just thought it was some vort that would die.

I've been watching that too. It looks much better than.the current center. A center relocation south of Cuba would really throw a monkey wrench into the forecast.

However no indication of spin on the GITMO radar.

[Nimbus]

The center that recon investigated yesterday didn't have much of a pressure gradient and it is very close to the Cuban coastline this morning. Convection has been enhanced by shear induced lift which diminishes as the shear lessens. We all want to know what that convection south of Cuba is and if its just a disrupted feeder for the system on the north coast of Cuba.

[jlauderdal]

While I don’t expect much from Fred in terms of wind in Miami Dade and Broward, I have been watching the rainfall total prediction slowly creeping up and over more of the urban South East Fl area. 5-7 inches over Urban SFL would be a mess

After last evening and early mornings activity, the grounds are saturated...we picked up an inch of rain in heavy convection at 230 am....miami beach and points south had flooding around 9 pm yesterday

[Dean4Storms]

While I don’t expect much from Fred in terms of wind in Miami Dade and Broward, I have been watching the rainfall total prediction slowly creeping up and over more of the urban South East Fl area. 5-7 inches over Urban SFL would be a mess

After last evening and early mornings activity, the grounds are saturated...we picked up an inch of rain in heavy convection at 230 am....miami beach and points south had flooding around 9 pm yesterday

A little vorticity with that over SE Florida seen on satellite.

[FLpanhandle91]

Fred is in rough shape this morning. Unless shear relaxes today, he will struggle to attain TS status.

[Jr0d]

Fred is in rough shape this morning. Unless shear relaxes today, he will struggle to attain TS status.

I think Fred has dissipated into a trough axis. No indication of a LLC... perhaps the visual satellite will show something. I can't find any indication of one on the IR channels.

[xironman]

Fred is in rough shape this morning. Unless shear relaxes today, he will struggle to attain TS status.

I think Fred has dissipated into a trough axis. No indication of a LLC... perhaps the visual satellite will show something. I can't find any indication of one on the IR channels.

When the NOAA plane swings around back off the coast it should be in a good position to find and west winds if they exist.

[wxman57]

I think Fred may have lost its circulation, too. Some heavy convection north of Jamaica but I don't think Fred will reform down there. All of the vorticity is north of Cuba. It would be highly unusual for the NHC to downgrade Fred as it approaches the FL Straits, even if the plane can't find a circulation. Given its current state, though, it won't be a TS when it passes south Florida tomorrow morning. Might not even produce much rain until it starts encountering the SW winds aloft across the eastern Gulf later on Saturday.

[wxman57]

E-ESE wind just north of the Cuban coast at 10,000 ft = no circulation at flight level. Visible satellite may reveal a residual LLC in an hour.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Fred is in rough shape this morning. Unless shear relaxes today, he will struggle to attain TS status.

I think Fred has dissipated into a trough axis. No indication of a LLC... perhaps the visual satellite will show something. I can't find any indication of one on the IR channels.

You can see the area of vorticity we have been monitoring on shortwave. Not anywhere near the convection and it is about to crash into Cuba. Located at roughly 78W 22N

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[eastcoastFL]

Fred is in rough shape this morning. Unless shear relaxes today, he will struggle to attain TS status.

I think Fred has dissipated into a trough axis. No indication of a LLC... perhaps the visual satellite will show something. I can't find any indication of one on the IR channels.

I was coming here to say the same thing. IR can be deceiving so it will be interesting once visible appears.

[FLpanhandle91]

Fred is in rough shape this morning. Unless shear relaxes today, he will struggle to attain TS status.

I think Fred has dissipated into a trough axis. No indication of a LLC... perhaps the visual satellite will show something. I can't find any indication of one on the IR channels.

You can see the area of vorticity we have been monitoring on shortwave. Not anywhere near the convection and it is about to crash into Cuba. Located at roughly 78W 22N

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

Recon sees the same thing and is about to make a pass over that area.

[MarioProtVI]

Yeah this thing is toast. Circ looks open and recon confirms it too. NHC should just discontinue advisories and issue a special advisory declaring it dissipated. That convection though to the south looks interesting, though I’m inclined to believe it’s just a disrupted feeder band and not a MLC trying to relocate a LLC (which in this case would that be an entirely different storm? Would it be named Grace since it’s so far removed and likely not associated with the original storm?)

[Jr0d]

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate ... e=PPIZH240

Interesting feature northwest of Guantanamo diving southwest.

[aspen]

Fred’s circulation is like the 06z GFS and HWRF runs: missing.

[NDG]

NOAA airplane this morning flying at almost 12k can't find that nice CoC that had found yesterday evening with the deep convection north of the eastern Cuban coast. Fred looks worst than when I went to bed last night, this time shear really got to it.

[NDG]

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=PPIZH240

Interesting feature northwest of Guantanamo diving southwest.

That most be the MLC that was clearly seen last night with the deep convection, now dying out.

[InfernoFlameCat]

That Cuban convection may try something

[NDG]

E-ESE wind just north of the Cuban coast at 10,000 ft = no circulation at flight level. Visible satellite may reveal a residual LLC in an hour.

This is where I see the residual LLC, or at least a surface vorticity, very weak.
No signs of a developing LLC down there by the convection between Cuba and Jamaica as some might think.

[wxman57]

I'm anxious to read the NHC's 15Z discussion. What will they do now? Maybe high-res visible will reveal a residual swirl (remnant low). I just can't believe they'll say it has dissipated and stop advisories. Hey, "Fred is now post tropical so we're switching to PTC advisories"? That wouldn't confuse anyone.