ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Craig setzer channel 4 Miami said on evening news that Fred had no chance now of being a hurricane
before reaching S Florida area.

My wife asked me if this was true.
Told her no, that there was a very small chance that it could .

Like Craig Setzer but hate blanket statements like that.
Still hope hes right.

They get paid well to make predictions, you might he hoping for more out of fred but setzer and morales are very tuned into predicting tropical weather in sofla, they are also very well connected to the nhc.

[jlauderdal]

Getting ready for awesome discussion from Stacy in a few min.

Expect a bullish response to the latest convective activity.

[psyclone]

Let's see if Fred's persistent pulse is sufficient to lift those skimpy wind probs on the 11 pm advisory. I'm thinking yes

[skyline385]

...FRED MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

[Woofde]

NHC actually bumped their forecast intensity down despite the increase in convection. Seems like a strange decision to me, but the way it's worded it seems they want the models to go up before they buy into Fred.

[AtlanticWind]

NHC actually bumped their forecast intensity down despite the increase in convection. Seems like a strange decision to me, but the way it's worded it seems they want the models to go up before they buy into Fred.

It was same as 5pm as far as I saw top winds 50 mph

[ElectricStorm]

NHC actually bumped their forecast intensity down despite the increase in convection. Seems like a strange decision to me, but the way it's worded it seems they want the models to go up before they buy into Fred.

They might just be waiting to see if the center moves inland over Cuba or not. And also to see how much the shear ends up affecting it, which hasn't been much yet.

[Woofde]

NHC actually bumped their forecast intensity down despite the increase in convection. Seems like a strange decision to me, but the way it's worded it seems they want the models to go up before they buy into Fred.

It was same as 5pm as far as I saw top winds 50 mph

Good catch, I mistakenly was looking at the 11am discussion instead.

[BobHarlem]

11pm track looks similar to the 5pm track, just everything is pushed back 6 hours (But more or less keeping the 5pm points). I think they are going to hold until the morning before deciding to upgrade again or not. 2AM maybe, but more likely 5am. FWIW, the NHC's track has been pretty spot on to this point, go back a few days to check.

[AtlanticWind]

NHC actually bumped their forecast intensity down despite the increase in convection. Seems like a strange decision to me, but the way it's worded it seems they want the models to go up before they buy into Fred.

It was same as 5pm as far as I saw top winds 50 mph

Actually reaches 45 mph earlier on 11pm advisory, same top winds of 50 mph

[AtlanticWind]

Just looked at 18z HWRF, it had no convection this point,pretty far off
Lets see what the 00z run does.

[psyclone]

Peak forecast intensity was maintained at 50mph but the ts wind probabilities have come up. That makes sense based upon Fred's improved convection and greater chance of survival and is probably a necessary baby step to increasing intensity estimates in subsequent forecasts (recall they were peaking at 60 or 65mph in prior advisories before Fred stripped naked earlier today).

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 76.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES

[cane5]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...

According to the NHC they have moved the cone a touch east one model shows it slightly leaning more east but general consensus is it continues to move at a slow speed and should stay wnw. Any move more due north now would cause it to interact with the low over SFL which would hinder development.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 76.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES

[Sciencerocks]

[otowntiger]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1075/do3zgN.gif

Still pretty much a ‘blob like’ system, not much organization that I can tell with my amateur eyes.

[Jr0d]

When I zoom out, all a see is a wave axis...and not an organized one.

While there are some signs shear may be letting up and there is convection firing, I am just not seeing any signs that Fred is becoming better organized...that said it seems like as soon as I post something, the storm will do the opposite.

Not expecting.much out of this here in the Keys but still a bit uneasy that this will have at least 36 hours over hot water and potentially less hostile environment. Really hoping we are not in for a surprise Saturday morning.

[cane5]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1075/do3zgN.gif

Still pretty much a ‘blob like’ system, not much organization that I can tell with my amateur eyes.

What a classic example of what happens to a storm if it has to cross Domican/Haitian land mass and high mountains few if any ever survive it.

[Dean4Storms]

The convection south of eastern Cuba is looking interesting this morning. I saw a spin at sunset last evening moving off that tip of Haiti toward the west, just thought it was some vort that would die.

[ObsessedMiami]

While I don’t expect much from Fred in terms of wind in Miami Dade and Broward, I have been watching the rainfall total prediction slowly creeping up and over more of the urban South East Fl area. 5-7 inches over Urban SFL would be a mess