ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425977681456377859




Africa is so active it's got outflow screaming westward?

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425977681456377859?s=20

Africa is so active it's got outflow screaming westward?

https://i.imgur.com/LRmk5Sv.gif

Yeesh if that’s the case, then convective/monsoon activity over Africa is not as much of a clear-cut indicator of seasonal activity as once thought. Too much can be as unfavorable as too little.

It does seem like 95L is on the very edge of this flow and should out of range within the next 48 hours as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Clearly, the shear is not stopping it from producing more convection to replace what has been lost.

[sma10]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425977681456377859?s=20

Africa is so active it's got outflow screaming westward?

https://i.imgur.com/LRmk5Sv.gif

Yeesh if that’s the case, then convective/monsoon activity over Africa is not as much of a clear-cut indicator of seasonal activity as once thought. Too much can be as unfavorable as too little.

It does seem like 95L is on the very edge of this flow and should out of range within the next 48 hours as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Clearly, the shear is not stopping it from producing more convection to replace what has been lost.

And not good news either. Stronger easterly shear simply means development, on average, will be later, and more likely to affect land.

[Stormybajan]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425977681456377859?s=20

Africa is so active it's got outflow screaming westward?

https://i.imgur.com/LRmk5Sv.gif

Truly an amazing gif to watch.Im not sure i've seen easterly shear like that before in the MDR. Howeverrrr, if 95L doesnt get the chance to reach TD status east of the islands, then we may owe the models an apology . Still 2 days ahead though longtime to watch

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though convection is popping over the center as of now

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425977681456377859?s=20

Africa is so active it's got outflow screaming westward?

https://i.imgur.com/LRmk5Sv.gif

SAL is dying out

[Hurricaneman]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425977681456377859?s=20

Africa is so active it's got outflow screaming westward?

https://i.imgur.com/LRmk5Sv.gif

Yeesh if that’s the case, then convective/monsoon activity over Africa is not as much of a clear-cut indicator of seasonal activity as once thought. Too much can be as unfavorable as too little.

It does seem like 95L is on the very edge of this flow and should out of range within the next 48 hours as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Clearly, the shear is not stopping it from producing more convection to replace what has been lost.

Looks like shear is lessening as new convection isn’t blowing off the center

[Hurricaneman]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425977681456377859?s=20

Africa is so active it's got outflow screaming westward?

https://i.imgur.com/LRmk5Sv.gif

Especially east of 50w

[Category5Kaiju]

Recent ASCAt shows a nearly closed but slightly elongated center for 95L. It’s very close to TD status, it just needs some work to do with tightening up it’s center, which I would think DMAX and decrease in easterly shear as it goes more west (not to mention warming ssts the more west it goes) would help with.

[Sciencerocks]

[CyclonicFury]

Close, but needs to tighten up a bit more. It should gain organization when the easterly shear relaxes over the next two days.

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425977681456377859?s=20

Africa is so active it's got outflow screaming westward?

https://i.imgur.com/LRmk5Sv.gif

SAL is dying out

That's not SAL, it's well south. Look at the SAL maps.

[storminabox]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425977681456377859?s=20

Africa is so active it's got outflow screaming westward?

https://i.imgur.com/LRmk5Sv.gif

Too much of a good thing.

[IsabelaWeather]

95L is looking really good on infrared. Looks like convection is over where I think the center is. Could get interesting


EDIT 1:14am till looking great, just looking for banding which does not show up yet. But really looking pretty good

[Hurricaneman]

95L is looking really good on infrared. Looks like convection is over where I think the center is. Could get interesting


EDIT 1:14am till looking great, just looking for banding which does not show up yet. But really looking pretty good

With current trends this could be a TD by 11am but probably 5pm

[ElectricStorm]

No change

1. A small low pressure system located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity primarily west of the center. Environmental conditions are
expected to gradually become more conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next couple of days. The system is forecast to move generally
westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic, reaching
portions of the Leeward Islands Saturday night, and Virgin Islands
on Sunday. Interests in these locations should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

Looking pretty good for a system getting hit by easterly shear

[EquusStorm]

This is looking very impressive tonight. Sustained convection and increasing outflow make me think genesis is probably underway, just gotta finish closing off that center (and be lucky enough to catch a solid scatterometer pass once it does) and we'll be good to go pretty soon.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking pretty good for a system getting hit by easterly shear
https://i.imgur.com/PCsEl4I.gif

Center seems to be between the two blobs

[AtlanticWind]

Look for this to really get going past 50 west , again big moment on whether this clears Hispanola.