ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

[robbielyn]

Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif

sometimes land friction can do wonders.

[aspen]

Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif

Looks like Fred is no longer Yabba-Dabba-Doomed. Quite an impressive blowup of convection all of a sudden.

[AutoPenalti]

Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif

LLC is still moving though.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif

sometimes land friction can do wonders.

Actually...the land is holding it back for a short while. If you look over the Cuban land mass, all those thunderstorms are starving the center of convergence. Once we get into tonight, it will reverse.
That convection might be strong enough to pull the center underneath the covection

[tolakram]

Last light.

[psyclone]

Considering we have a decent blowup at dmin and Fred remains within the disruptive downslope zone off of eastern Cuba, its chances should improve markedly with dmax and sufficient longitude as it pulls away from those high mountains in eastern Cuba. As we ramp up toward peak season, it only takes a spin to win. The possibility this gets bit stronger than expected certainly deserves a spot in everyone's thought process..especially folks in the keys. Things could get a good bit more interesting in the next 12-24 hours if Fred can gain and maintain some solid convection.

[SFLcane]

Easy there Fred…

[tolakram]

Bastardi has a writeup on Weatherbell premium today, these are nice because it stays on topic. Still drumming about how the models always miss the MJO phase change and that phase II usually means in close development. He sees a strengthening hurricane into the panhandle or even west of that. Ignoring his strength predictions, if we end up with a stronger Fred than the models are currently showing then once again the MJO phase change idea has merit.

[chaser1]

Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif

Boy, ain't that a fact?!! There's no way I would have expected this solid of a convective blow-up over center until m-a-y-b-e mid-day tomorrow? Pretty impressive actually. Let's see how long it can be sustained tonight given the shear. One interesting note however..... Fred's slower motion in combination with UL shear becoming southerly (rather then WSW), should induce a better upper air environment by sometime early Saturday I think.

[wxman57]

The surface center appears to be west of the convection. Recon is finding a center aloft to the east. Still a good bit of shear. That 170 kt SFMR might be questionable.

[johngaltfla]

Bastardi has a writeup on Weatherbell premium today, these are nice because it stays on topic. Still drumming about how the models always miss the MJO phase change and that phase II usually means in close development. He sees a strengthening hurricane into the panhandle or even west of that. Ignoring his strength predictions, if we end up with a stronger Fred than the models are currently showing then once again the MJO phase change idea has merit.

IF this change idea occurs, it will be fascinating to watch if there is a future impact on forecasting across the board.

[NDG]

BTW, both recons are finding the LLC a little further SE than what it was estimated at 5 PM.

[tolakram]

COD shortwave

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Cuba-07-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[SunnyThoughts]

Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif

Boy, ain't that a fact?!! There's no way I would have expected this solid of a convective blow-up over center until m-a-y-b-e mid-day tomorrow? Pretty impressive actually. Let's see how long it can be sustained tonight given the shear. One interesting note however..... Fred's slower motion in combination with UL shear becoming southerly (rather then WSW), should induce a better upper air environment by sometime early Saturday I think.

Did any of the model predict this happening this soon? Hopefully it doesn't last and stays decoupled. Panhandle has had So much rain the last 2 weeks.im afraid even a 60 mph TS would cause a lot of chaos with trees etc.

[aspen]

The surface center appears to be west of the convection. Recon is finding a center aloft to the east. Still a good bit of shear. That 170 kt SFMR might be questionable.

“Might be”?

What could even cause an erronous SFMR reading that high?

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

The surface center appears to be west of the convection. Recon is finding a center aloft to the east. Still a good bit of shear. That 170 kt SFMR might be questionable.

“Might be”?

What could even cause an erronous SFMR reading that high?

Well, I'm pretty sure it was passing over part of a hill or mountain on an island when that SFMR reading popped up. FL winds were around 30-35kt at that time fwiw.

[cane5]

Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif

Florida Straits is a furnace, if Fred slows a bit and the low dies out SFl could see more impacts.

[AtlanticWind]

Slowed down to 7mph
Also fixed back at 75w

[AtlanticWind]

Center under convection , still disorganized but trying for comeback.
Slower movement interesting