Average Prospects for Cyclone Season
The El Niño of the past year has waned, and conditions are now close to neutral. Available indicators suggest that neutral conditions will persist through the coming cyclone season. These observations form the basis of the following outlook.
- The most likely month for occurrence of this season's first cyclone is January. However, the easing of El Niño means that the risk of a cyclone in December is greater than it was last season. A cyclone in November, although unlikely, cannot be ruled out.
On average 2 to 3 cyclones per season form in the waters surrounding the Northern Territory. However, cyclone numbers in past seasons have ranged from none to as many as 5. The national average is 10.
The Gulf of Carpentaria will be the most favoured location for cyclone formation this season. In past seasons with neutral conditions, cyclones occurred 50% more often in the Gulf than in the waters to the north or west of the Top End.
There is also a 50% chance of one tropical cyclone being severe (Category 3 or greater). If a severe cyclone forms during this season, it is very likely to be in the Gulf.
Note that the cyclone season runs from 1 November 2003 until 30 April 2004. This outlook is for the region between 125°E and 142°E, which includes the Timor and Arafura Seas and the Gulf of Carpentaria.
